Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey broke out in a big way during 2018, and he’s just getting started. The third-year running back is one of the most versatile players in the league and is a consensus top-three player in fantasy football. However, fantasy football owners everywhere are deciding between McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Saquon Barkley with the first-overall pick. While all three of those players should have fantastic seasons, McCaffrey’s combination of talent and opportunity is unmatched.
It’s worth noting that, as of this posting, Ezekiel Elliott is currently holding out for a new contract. Elliott very well could be the consensus 1.01 if he were back on the field, but there’s a very real chance he misses a significant amount of time. Drafting early is all about minimizing risk, so you don’t want to grab Elliott until he returns to Dallas.
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The Case for Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey was a league-winning force in 2018, recording a combined 1,965 yards and 13 touchdowns while ending the season as the RB3 in standard-scoring formats. He’s a dangerous threat as a runner and a pass-catcher and should be utilized in the same way in 2019. Nobody can deny McCaffrey’s talent, so we won’t waste words with that here. However, McCaffrey is in a perfect situation to take his game to an even higher level in 2019.
Part of the reason McCaffrey is so effective is that he never leaves the field. Last year, McCaffrey played in 91.3% of the offensive snaps. This type of workload is simply invaluable in a league where true three-down running backs are growing scarce. McCaffrey only had two games where he played fewer than 90% of the snaps, and one of those was a meaningless Week 17 snoozefest to the New Orleans Saints. Being a top-level fantasy option has just as much to do with opportunity as it does talent, and nobody has a better opportunity than McCaffrey.
Various reports claim that the Panthers are actively looking for another short-yardage back. This might scare some fantasy owners away, but the smart owners won’t flinch. If the Panthers truly wanted a short-yardage back, they would have done something about it over the offseason. Carolina’s current running back depth chart is anything but inspiring, so the Panthers will probably give McCaffrey the same ridiculous workload.
Additionally, the Panthers offense should be better in 2019 than they were in 2018. Cam Newton is back and healthy, which is obviously fantastic news for the offense. When factoring in Newton’s return with the expected growth from Curtis Samuel and D.J. Moore, Carolina should have one of the better offenses in the league. Being in a good offense is great for fantasy purposes, as extended drives allow for more touches and scoring opportunities. McCaffrey has the talent and opportunity that guys like Barkley and Kamara simply don’t have.
The Case Against Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley is more talented than Christian McCaffrey. If you were building a real NFL team from scratch, Barkley would probably be the first running back off the board. However, this is fantasy we’re talking about, and Barkley’s situation is one of the worst in the league.
The New York Giants are bad. Eli Manning is over the hill, Daniel Jones is an untested rookie, the offensive line is mediocre, and Evan Engram is the best pass-catching weapon in town. This offense is going to be one of the worst in the league, and every team will be able to exclusively focus on stopping Barkley.
A large percentage of Barkley’s rushing yards came on ridiculously large chunk plays. According to Pro Football Reference, Barkley had seven carries of greater than 40 yards. Nobody else in the league had more than four carries of 40+ yards. These seven carries accounted for 31.5% of his rushing yards and 36.4% of his rushing touchdowns. When taking out these massive plays, Barkley ran for “just” 894 yards and four seven touchdowns while averaging just 3.5 yards-per-carry.
Barkley is a dynamic playmaker, so he’ll always be near the top of the explosive plays list. However, expecting seven more big plays like this is asking for too much. Barkley will be great, but he cannot possibly maintain that rate of explosive carries. McCaffrey is the more consistent player in the better offense, and that makes him the better choice.
The Case Against Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara is just as talented as Christian McCaffrey, and he’s in an even better offense. Drew Brees still has at least one more year left in his tank, Sean Payton is one of the best offensive coaches of his time, and Saints running backs are annually one of the best commodities in fantasy football. Adding in Kamara’s ridiculous talent level makes him a no-brainer top-three running back.
That said, he’s still not as desirable as Christian McCaffrey. Sean Payton always uses multiple running backs, so Kamara will never see the massive workload that McCaffrey will. Despite Kamara’s superior skill set, Payton refused to use Kamara as anything more than a committee back when he and Mark Ingram were both available. Kamara never played in more than 71.7% of the offensive snaps in any of 2018’s final 12 games. This snap percentage would have been the second-lowest of McCaffrey’s season, only to the season finale in which the coaching staff essentially gave him the day off.
Mark Ingram is gone, but the running back by committee will remain. The Saints signed Latavius Murray in the offseason, and the former Vikings running back should take over as Ingram’s replacement. Sean Payton already said that Kamara’s workload won’t change, meaning that he has a very set ceiling. McCaffrey is the only running back to play in a strong offense with a full workload, and he should be the first pick in your fantasy football draft.
