Every fantasy football player is looking for the next breakout star. Anyone can draft an established top talent in the first round, but winning a championship comes down to finding those diamonds in the rough. In 2018, one of those diamonds was San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle. Kittle exceeded all realistic expectations in 2018, finishing as the TE3 with 88 receptions for 1,377 yards and five touchdowns. This year, that breakout star is going to be Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews.
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Mark Andrews Set To Be 2019’s George Kittle
Mark Andrews Is Good
The most important qualification for a breakout season is making sure the player is actually good. Based on his NFL body of work, Mark Andrews has the tools to be one of the best tight ends in the league. During his rookie season, Andrews recorded 34 receptions for 552 yards and three touchdowns, making him the TE17 in half-point scoring. On the surface, this wasn’t anything impressive. However, a deeper dive in the numbers shows that Andrews is primed for a breakout.
There’s really no such thing as an NFL-ready tight end, as the position is notorious for requiring a year to catch up to NFL speed. Despite the relatively pedestrian numbers, Andrews’ season was actually one of the best from a rookie tight end in the past decade. Andrews’ 546 yards are fifth-most among rookie tight ends since 2009, and his 16.24 yards-per-reception ranks second among rookie tight ends with 20 or more receptions.
Andrews managed to have one of the better rookie tight end seasons in recent memory despite playing in just 34.8% of the offensive snaps. He managed to do this because he was one of the most dangerous weapons in the league when targeted. The rookie was third among tight ends in Expected Points Added (EPA) and fifth among all pass-catchers in EPA/target. Andrews was ridiculously effective when targeted, so it stands to reason that John Harbaugh will give him a bigger role in 2019.
A Bigger Role Coming
Some fantasy football owners may believe that regression is coming. Regardless of talent level, it’s hard to maintain that level of efficiency on an annual basis. Fortunately, Andrews will see a bigger role in 2019. The added volume and opportunity will easily cancel out any and all efficiency regression in the upcoming season.
As previously mentioned, Andrews only played in 34.8% of the snaps as a rookie. This is going to dramatically increase as Andrews becomes more incorporated in the offense. Andrews is reportedly Lamar Jackson’s favorite target and the duo is especially dangerous in the red zone.
Reading into training camp narratives can be dangerous, but there is every reason to believe these reports are the truth. For one, Andrews and Jackson actually have one of the closest rapports of any receiver on the team. The Ravens parted ways with John Brown and Michael Crabtree in the off-season, and their combined 197 targets are up for grabs.
Willie Snead had 95 targets, so it’s hard to imagine him seeing more work in the passing game. Hayden Hurst battled injury as a rookie and Andrews appears to have leapfrogged him on the depth chart. The only other pass-catchers of note on the roster are rookies Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin. These two hold plenty of promise, but rookie wide receivers always need a season or two before becoming regular contributors. By default, Mark Andrews is the top option in the passing game and should see a high snap count and target share.
Even if Hurst overtakes Andrews on the depth chart, it won’t really matter. John Harbaugh is going all-in on Lamar Jackson’s unique gifts and wants Baltimore’s offense to be unlike anything the NFL has ever seen. The Ravens need multiple tight ends to make this offense work, so Andrews should be on the field for the grand majority of snaps.
Historical Evidence
Fortunately, there is historical evidence to suggest Andrews can break out during his second NFL season. As previously mentioned, just about every NFL tight end struggles as a rookie. However, the best of the best put those struggles behind and elevate their game during their second season.
Let’s start off by looking at George Kittle. Back in 2017, the fifth-round pick recorded a relatively pedestrian 43 receptions for 515 yards and two touchdowns. In 2018, he more than doubled his receptions (88), yardage (1,377), and touchdowns (five). In fairness, Kittle was a fifth-round pick and the 49ers might not have known what they had in the Iowa product. Fortunately, Kittle’s success is anything but an isolated incident.
Zach Ertz is one of the best tight ends in football, and he also needed a year to find his NFL footing. The second-round pick recorded 36 receptions for 469 yards and four touchdowns before recording 58 receptions, 702 yards, and three touchdowns in 2014. Rob Gronkowski might be the best tight end of all time, and even he wasn’t exempt from this rule. The Arizona State product recorded a solid 42 receptions for 546 yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie before exploding for 90 receptions, 1,327 yards, and a league-leading 17 touchdowns in 2011. The only elite tight end who doesn’t follow this trend is Travis Kelce, and he missed his rookie season with a knee injury.
Lesser tight ends like O.J. Howard, Cameron Brate, and Vernon Davis have followed similar career paths. Generally speaking, great tight ends will break out and dominate during their second year in the league, and Mark Andrews is a great tight end.
Andrews is currently going off the board in the 13th round of half-PPR scoring formats, which is absolutely ridiculous. The Ravens won’t throw the ball that often, so he might not match Kittle’s 1,300 receiving yards. However, he’s still Baltimore’s best receiving threat with considerable red zone upside. He’ll easily eclipse Kittle’s five touchdowns and could even record double-digit scores. Don’t be surprised when Andrews ends up finishing as a top-five fantasy football tight end.
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