Making award predictions is as much an off-season staple as festivals and cookouts. Normally, this includes possible candidates from across the NFL. But for this, the second part of our exercise, we will be awarding the NFC North. The standard awards like MVP and Defensive Player of the Year are present but also included are Most Improved and Newcomer of the Year.
Predicting NFC North Award Winners – Part II
Breakout Player of the Year: Dalvin Cook
It has been a rough couple of years for Dalvin Cook. After being drafted 41st overall in 2017, the running back has missed more regular-season games (17) than he has played in (15). Durability (and other) concerns preceded Cook into the NFL and the Minnesota Vikings are taking no chances. They drafted Alex Mattison out of Boise State in the third round.
Cook was considered a first-round talent coming out of college and when he’s healthy it is easy to see why. Of those 15 games he has played, he had at least 10 carries and four receptions five times, with another game with nine carries and eight receptions. Perhaps Mattison will be a good thing for Cook. Either as motivation or even a partner to split the workload and keep the latter fresh.
#Vikings running back Dalvin Cook (@dalvincook) shares his expectations headed into his 3rd pro season fully healthy. pic.twitter.com/2dE59cwVti
— Blake DeVine (@bladevine) July 28, 2019
Minnesota invested in their offensive line this off-season, adding Garrett Bradbury and Dru Samia in the draft and signing Brett Jones. That was to help Kirk Cousins too, but boosting the running game would boost the entire offense. From taking the air out of the ball and chewing clock to being a safety valve for his quarterback.
The Vikings have lofty goals. They regressed last season despite spending big. Any hopes of a resurgence will require Cousins to play his best ball, and that will require a solid ground game. All quarterbacks benefit from that, but Cousins has shown he thrives when the conditions are right. What better way to ensure that than to control the game with the running backs?
Rookie of the Year: David Montgomery
Most often this would be broken into both an offensive and a defensive selection. For the purpose of this article, it will be a single player. That player is Bears rookie running back David Montgomery, a third-round choice out of Iowa State. With a body better suited to handle a lot of carries than Tarik Cohen and better ability as a receiver than his predecessor, Jordan Howard.
Montgomery led the FBS in forced missed tackles each of the last two seasons. On top of that, he had 2,362 rushing yards, 453 receiving yards (on 58 receptions), and 24 touchdowns. Howard, in his lone season under Matt Nagy, rushed for a career-low 935 yards and 3.7 yards per carry. That was his second year with diminishing returns. He also provided little as a receiver.
These two running plays by David Montgomery illustrate how tough he is to tackle. pic.twitter.com/Z6LwyUlvDJ
— 𝙰𝚕𝚍𝚘 𝙶𝚊𝚗𝚍𝚒𝚊 (@AldoBarkeeper) July 28, 2019
Mike Davis joined the Bears this off-season coming over from the Seattle Seahawks and he will siphon some of the carries. But he is a career backup on his third team in five years with a career-high of 112 carries. He does possess some of the dual-threat ability that the Bears brass likes about Montgomery and he was one of the first signings of the off-season. It still sounds like he will be a backup to the rookie and Cohen.
Draft pedigree is also working in Montgomery’s favor, which is not normally the case for third-round picks. When that is a team’s first in the draft, and they trade up to make it, then things are a little different. A concern could be his heavy college workload (515 carries the last two years) and his lack of top-end speed (4.63 40) being why he had to break so many tackles. Still, of all the award predictions, this could be the biggest runaway.
Defensive Player of the Year: Danielle Hunter
Danielle Hunter led the NFC North in sacks last season and could have an even bigger year in 2019-20. For one thing, he recorded six of his sacks with fellow pass-rusher Everson Griffen out of commission, it stands to reason that Griffen’s presence will provide even more opportunities for the fifth-year end. Hunter could challenge for the league-lead in sacks after finishing fourth last year.
The Vikings finished a disappointing 2018 with an (8-7-1) record. Any hope for a return to prominence (they won the division the year prior) will need a resurgence from the defense. In terms of yardage, they were still third against the pass in 2018 but fell to 15th against the run. The year before they ranked second in both categories.
Danielle Hunter in hot pursuit of Kirk Cousins. #VikingsCamp @FOX9 pic.twitter.com/MIEUWMKnDm
— Jeff Wald (@JeffWaldFox9) July 26, 2019
Minnesota’s offense finding its way would go a long way towards the defense return to dominance. A better rushing attack and Cousins better protecting the football would alleviate the pressure on a defense. It is not like they have to turnaround a bottom-of-the-league unit, just get back to playing their brand of defense.
Hunter has been such a steal for the Vikings that Pro Football Focus admitted they missed on him. They were not alone; his own team did not take him until the third round (88th overall) of the 2015 NFL Draft. If he can fight off the fluctuating sack totals he has experienced so far in his career, he has a clear path to making this award prediction a reality.
Most Valuable Player: Aaron Rodgers
Do you know how many quarterbacks have passed for at least 4,400 yards, 25 touchdowns, with only two interceptions in a season? There has been just one: Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers’ season was wasted with the team going a disheartening 6-9-1 That resulted in a coaching change and a lot of chatter about Rodgers role in the team’s poor season.
A season for the ages could be coming next. One that can be properly capitalized on thanks to defensive reinforcements. Green Bay’s defense allowed more points last year than they have since 2013. Rodgers missed nine games in 2017 with a broken clavicle. It looked like he would miss time last year too when he suffered a sprained MCL and fractured knee.
"Nobody's talking about us."
And @AaronRodgers likes it that way. #NFLTrainingCamp
📺: @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/TRYli7M5JB
— NFL (@NFL) July 25, 2019
Rodgers played the entire season on one leg. This season he gets a new head coach and play-caller in Matt LaFleur and their relationship has already had its fair share of controversy. Assuming that is all behind them, look for the Packers offense to be more creative and up-tempo. LaFleur comes from the Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay schools of coaching.
Rodgers’ down year (he passed for his fewest touchdowns in a full season) was further marred by in-fighting and a depleted defense. Green Bay believes it has addressed both of those issues. All that is left is keeping Rodgers upright. If they have done enough on that front, the last of our award predictions sees a return of Rodgers circa 2014 or 2016.
NFC North Award Predictions
This concludes the two-part NFC North award predictions. We have covered everything from Executive of the Year to MVP. Now to see how the season actually plays out. How would you dole out the accolades for the division?
Stats and info provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
