NFL training camp is officially underway, which means real and fantasy football is just around the corner. Unfortunately, it also means that injuries are starting to affect players around the league. Cincinnati Bengals’ wide receiver A.J. Green suffered a left ankle injury which is expected to keep him sidelined for the next six to eight weeks. He probably won’t be ready for Week One, so let’s take a look at how this affects Green, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon.
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Fantasy Football: A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon Updated Projections
A.J. Green
The biggest victim of this injury is obviously A.J. Green himself. When healthy, Green is one of the best wide receivers in the league and is capable of singlehandedly winning matchups. Prior to his latest injury, Green was projected to go in the third round of half-PPR drafts, which would have made him an amazing value.
As of this posting, Fantasy Football Calculator hasn’t had time to adequately update Green’s new average draft position. However, it’s safe to assume he’s fallen a few rounds. This isn’t Green’s first battle with injury, as the former first-round pick has missed 13 games in the past two seasons. While he still offers elite upside, he also carries an advanced risk of injury.
He’s no longer a value in the third round, but you shouldn’t completely take him off your draft board. Green still gives you WR1 upside when he’s on the field, as none of his previous injuries have managed to sap away his otherworldly ability. The current recovery timeline means that Green should realistically be back on the field by Week Three or Week Four. It’s worth taking Green in the fifth or sixth round and stashing him while he’s hurt. Green’s upside easily justifies carrying him for the first two or three weeks of the season.
Tyler Boyd
Tyler Boyd had a breakout season in 2018 and recently signed a massive contract extension to stick around in Cincinnati. The former second-round pick had a great season, but his production was highly dependent upon A.J. Green’s presence. According to ESPN’s Matthew Berry, Boyd had a 77% catch rate with Green on the field and a 63% catch rate without Green. In terms of fantasy scoring, Boyd averaged 14.6 fantasy points per game with Green (half-PPR scoring). This output was good for the 16th-best mark among wide receivers. Without Green, he was the WR24 with 11.1 fantasy points per game.
Even if Boyd replicates his production without Green, he’s still a fringe WR2. However, there is reason to belive Boyd will be better this time around. Right around the time Green went down with a toe injury, Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton also went down with an injury of his own. Say what you will about Dalton, he’s significantly better than Jeff Driskel. Boyd isn’t capable of maintaining fringe-WR1 production without Green, but having Dalton healthy will ensure the drop off in production won’t be as glaring.
As of this posting, Fantasy Football Calculator has Boyd going off the board early in the sixth round of 12-team drafts. This position will surely fall with time, as casual fans will overreact to Boyd’s splits without Green. Even if Green really is the key to Boyd’s success, Green will be back early in the season. You’ll get a steal if he falls into the late sixth or early seventh.
Joe Mixon
Running back Joe Mixon also suffered a drop in production without Green, but it wasn’t nearly as drastic. In games started and finished by Green, Mixon averaged 17.0 fantasy points per game, good for ninth-best among running backs. Without Green, Mixon averaged 15.0 fantasy points per game, making him the RB15 on a per-game basis.
In terms of actual production, the two-point difference only equates to an extra 20 rushing yards per game, or one 15-yard reception. This difference is negligible, meaning that Mixon was essentially the same guy with and without Green (and Dalton). Considering Cincinnati’s defense also got considerably worse in the second half of the year, this consistency is something to be applauded. Mixon was a late-first selection before the Green injury, and he still deserves that draft positioning.
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