Kenyan Drake is one of the biggest teases in fantasy football. The Miami Dolphins running back makes plays when given a chance, but previous coaching administrations have been reluctant to give Drake a full workload. Is that going to change with first-year head coach Brian Flores, or will Drake continue to serve in a committee approach?
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2019 Fantasy Football Outlook: Kenyan Drake
2018 Recap
Despite his frustrating usage, Kenyan Drake actually had a decent season under former head coach Adam Gase. Drake ended the season as the RB17 in half-point PPR formats, compiling 535 rushing yards, 53 receptions, 477 receiving yards, and a combined nine touchdowns in his 16 games on the field.
Drake’s biggest issue throughout the season was consistency. While he had a solid finish, you never felt comfortable starting him. The running back had the occasional big week, scoring 14 or more fantasy points in four of his games (standard scoring). However, he also had his fair share of bust performances, as he recorded five or fewer fantasy points in eight weeks.
Most of this inconsistency came from Drake’s minimal usage. Despite having the skills to handle a full-time job, Drake only played in 59.2% of the offensive snaps. He only had two games in which he played more than 69% of the snap counts, and it’s hard to put up RB1 performances when you don’t have an RB1 workload. It’s not like there was too much talent to keep off the field, as the only other members of the backfield were Kalen Ballage and an ancient Frank Gore.
In terms of efficiency, Drake was actually below average as a runner. According to Sharp Football Stats, Drake had a 45.0% success rate on carries, 2.5% below league average. By comparison, Gore finished with a 50% success rate. Drake made up for it in the passing game, recording a 105 passer rating and a 45% success rate when targeted. The success rate, while low on the surface, is actually a pretty strong figure for running backs. Targets to running backs are naturally less efficient than targets to wide receivers and tight ends, so Drake hitting 45% is actually encouraging.
2019 Projection
Kenyan Drake is still in Miami, but this team looks considerably different from years past. Adam Gase is gone, replaced by first-year head coach Brian Flores and what feels like half of the 2018 Patriots coaching staff. Change can sometimes be the best thing for a player like Drake, but this isn’t the change he needs to succeed.
For one, Flores and offensive coordinator Chad O’Shea comes from the Bill Belichick coaching tree. The Patriots are notorious for using a committee approach and switching up their running back depth chart on a weekly basis. Flores probably won’t be quite as unpredictable as Belichick, but he’s likely to use a committee approach. Additionally, Kalen Ballage has reportedly taken first-team offensive snaps early in training camp. There’s plenty of time for Drake to prove his worth, but the early returns aren’t promising.
Even if Drake wins the role, Miami’s offense will not be good. Good offenses produce more opportunity, meaning Drake will have one of the lowest opportunity rates in the league. Ryan Fitzpatrick reportedly has the inside track for the starting job and he never targets running backs in the passing game. Josh Rosen, meanwhile, is an unproven commodity who looked lost during his lone season in Arizona. As if that wasn’t enough, Miami should have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Laremy Tunsil is a solid starter at left tackle, but the other four positions are all walking liabilities. It’s hard to pick up yards when you don’t have holes, and this line is going to be one of the worst at creating running lanes.
That said, it’s not like Drake is completely useless. He’s a good option in the passing game, which will earn him some playing time. Additionally, Flores’ committee approach should ensure he sees carries even if Ballage wins the starting role.
Kenyan Drake Average Draft Position
Fantasy Football Calculator currently has Drake going off the board with the 50th overall pick in half-PPR leagues. This places him right behind the likes of Sony Michel, Phillip Lindsay, and Chris Carson and just ahead of James White and Tarik Cohen.
This is probably where you want to select Drake. This author would personally take Drake over Michel, but that’s more because I am lower on Michel than most. Lindsay and Carson both have a larger track record of success and both should be in better offenses. Drake has a chance to match their end of season production, but he has a lower floor than those two.
However, he’s still a clear upgrade from White and Cohen. Both players are major regression candidates, and Drake should easily outperform both players. Drake’s ability to run and catch the ball should ensure he sees a decent percentage of the snaps. Additionally, Drake is a more natural runner than those two and has a clearer path to the field. New England has Michel and rookie Damien Harris while the Bears traded up to grab David Montgomery.
If you need a running back in the fifth round, you could do worse than Kenyan Drake. However, considering the mid-round options are so underwhelming, it’s probably best to stock up early on running backs and build your receiving core around guys like Brandin Cooks, Chris Godwin, Calvin Ridley, Robert Woods, and Tyler Boyd. These players should be startable on a weekly basis, and all three are going between the fourth and sixth rounds.
