Making award predictions is as much an off-season staple as festivals and cookouts. Normally, this includes possible candidates from across the NFL. But, for this two-part exercise, we will be awarding the NFC North. The standard awards like MVP and Defensive Player of the Year are present but also included are Most Improved and Newcomer of the Year.
Predicting the Award Winners in the NFC North – Part I
Coach of the Year: Matt Nagy
This is not the most glamorous of award predictions, but it is among the most important. Every (champion)ship needs a captain that can help guide the team through the ups and downs of a typical NFL season. Last year, Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy took home the NFL’s version, and he does so here too.
Runner-up Mike Zimmer was a tough pass; his Minnesota Vikings largely underperformed last year after winning the division the previous campaign. The Green Bay Packers are breaking in a rookie head coach in Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers will likely get most of the credit for any success they have anyway. Matt Patricia‘s Detroit Lions are fighting an uphill battle against the rest of the division, history, and public opinion.
“If you’re given a chance and you’re driven and obsessed and consumed when given the opportunity to prove people right, the sky is the limit." – Matt Nagy, HC Chicago Bears 🐻⬇️ #bears #nfl #life
— Louis Riddick (@LRiddickESPN) July 17, 2019
Nagy’s biggest question mark, meanwhile, is finding a capable kicker. A normally minor inconvenience proved to be the bane of the Bears playoff existence in 2018. If they can overcome that hindrance, the Bears are poised to make a leap like that of the Los Angeles Rams from 2018 to 2019.
Two other factors that could prove costly is the potential drop-off going from Vic Fangio to Chuck Pagano and the ascension of Mitchell Trubisky. By all accounts, though, those things are right on schedule and do not appear to be an issue. If the Bears biggest worry is kicker, they are poised for an extended postseason run.
Executive of the Year: Brian Gutekunst
Green Bay missed the playoffs two seasons in a row and ended up parting ways with long-time head coach Mike McCarthy. General manager Brian Gutekunst was less active in his first season than his predecessors, but that changed going into year two. Whereas the last guy, Ted Thompson, was almost allergic to free agency, Gutekunst dipped both feet in the water and came away with a solid haul.
Pass-rushers Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith are expected to join rookie first-rounder Rashan Gary in rejuvenating the Pack sack attack. On the backend, Adrian Amos defects from the Bears and joins the other Green Bay first-rounder, Darnell Savage to give the Packers a pair of versatile defenders behind second-year stud corner Jaire Alexander.
Murphy on #Packers GM Brian Gutekunst: “I’m very pleased. He’s not afraid to make difficult decisions, and he’s quickly remaking our roster. He has us in position for long-term success.”
— Ryan Wood (@ByRyanWood) July 24, 2019
If there is a knock on Gutekunst, it is his lack of offensive additions, specifically to the wide receiver room behind Davante Adams. Aside from slot-man Randall Cobb, the Packers will run it back with the rest of what was an underwhelming receiver corp. That could be a good thing, though. They are all young guys and could still have more to their respective games.
Gutekunst also drafted Jace Sternberger to partner with Jimmy Graham at tight end. Both are pass-catchers more than blockers and will put a ton of pressure on safeties and linebackers. They, in addition to improvement from the young receivers, could bring the offense back to life. Gutekunst’s moves have Green Bay in position to reclaim the North.
Newcomer of the Year: C.J. Anderson
This spot is for veteran additions coming over via trade or free agency. For C.J. Anderson, it was free agency as he joins the Detroit Lions following a surprising run to Super Bowl LIII with the Rams. He averaged seven yards per carry and churned out 167 and 132 rushing yards in weeks 15 and 16, respectively, plus another 123 yards in the Divisional Round.
It is nothing short of impressive that he accomplished what he did after being left on the scrap heap by the Carolina Panthers. Now can he build off that with a team that is looking to establish the run? They still have Matt Stafford, so it is unlikely the offense becomes ground-bound. But the quarterback’s presence should also open running lanes.
I don't mind Lions signing CJ Anderson to 1 year deal at all. He said he felt disrespected that it took this long for a team to sign him. Totally cool with that. Athletes play more motivated during contract years. So hopefully he'll give Lions some solid production.
— Mike Sullivan (@MikeSullivan) April 2, 2019
Kerryon Johnson also stands in the way of Anderson getting the (here it comes) Lion’s share of the carries. The second-year back is the starter and will be a major part of Detroit’s offense. But as we have seen in places like L.A. last year, New Orleans, and even New England, good offenses can have two productive backs and the Lions duo is talented.
Sharing carries is just a formality if the player can be effective with his carries and Anderson has never averaged less than four yards per carry. His style is also very different from that of Johnson. Anderson is the downhill, power-back and Johnson more of a shifty back who is also a threat out of the backfield. Together they could be trouble.
Most Improved Player: Mitchell Trubisky
This was one of the toughest award predictions because there are several viable candidates from each team. In the end, Mitchell Trubisky wins out. Hope springs eternal in the off-season but all the hype surrounding the Bears third-year signal-caller has been building. The difference between this off-season and last have been noticed.
It is not just the words of others that give this prediction legs either. The Bears Wild Card loss will forever be linked to the double doink. But Trubisky had given them the lead in the fourth quarter. That drive featured completions of 19 and 34 yards, a 22-yard touchdown and a two-point conversion. That field goal attempt ultimately means the drive stalled, though.
“I know I haven’t played my best football yet. That’s my mindset. To just keep getting better” – #Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky.
— Zack Pearson (@Zack_Pearson) July 25, 2019
If Trubisky can continue his trajectory, the Bears could repeat as NFC North champs and possibly more. Being accurate consistently must be objective one, and that could have been a symptom of Trubisky’s inexperience. That excuse is no longer valid. That just means that he should be better equipped to operate beyond the script.
Nagy’s system is a big reason that his quarterback gets this nod. Year one gave us glimpses of what this offense can be. Year two should bring about more of those moments for longer stretches. Trubisky has a lot of weapons; cohesion on the offensive line, talented pass-catchers, and a new-look running game. To quote another Tar Heel, “the ceiling is the roof”.
NFC North Award Predictions
This is just part one of predicting Award Predictions: NFC North. Still to come are Rookie of the Year, Breakout Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, and Most Valuable Player. Be sure to check back in with Last Word on Pro Football to catch part two. In the meantime, who would you pick for these awards?
