Training camp is about to start up, and the Dallas Cowboys might be without Ezekiel Elliott. According to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, Elliott is reportedly planning on holding out and could even leave the country for the start of training camp. No other source has confirmed this report, so let’s break down the odds of an Ezekiel Elliott holdout and what the Cowboys can do if he’s gone.
Odds of An Ezekiel Elliott Holdout
Why He’d Do It
Running backs have a notoriously short shelf life, and Elliott wants to make sure he gets his money before his body gives out. Since entering the league, Elliott has recorded 868 carries to go along with 135 receptions. Elliott’s 868 attempts lead the league since 2016, an impressive feat considering he’s missed eight games over that timeframe.
The running back position, by and large, is starting to get devalued around the league. Teams are turning more towards analytics and starting to realize that it simply isn’t good business to pay running backs. The grand majority of rushing production is due to the offensive line and playcalling, and passing targets to running backs aren’t as valuable as targets to wide receivers and tight ends. When also considering the shortened careers of running backs, there aren’t many arguments for paying the position.
However, there are still a few teams who haven’t caught on to this type of thinking. The New York Jets handed out a massive contract to Le’Veon Bell and Melvin Gordon is currently pulling a similar stunt with the Los Angeles Chargers. It’s in Elliott’s best interest to get a big-money contract before every team realizes they shouldn’t pay running backs.
Why He Wouldn’t
For the record, Ezekiel Elliott has not publicly stated whether or not he will hold out. Florio is the only one to claim Elliott definitely won’t be there, but he also thought he wouldn’t be at mandatory minicamp. Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports reports that Elliott has considered holding out, but has not yet made up his mind.
The obvious comparison to Elliott’s situation is Le’Veon Bell. Bell skipped 2018 season to avoid the franchise tag and got a four-year, $52.5 million deal out of it. While this comparison passes the eye test at first glance, it falls apart under further examination.
Since Bell never signed the franchise tag, he was never under contract for the 2018 season. Elliott, however, is under contract for two more seasons. That fact doesn’t change even if he holds out and misses the entire 2019 season. One way or another, he’ll have to play two more years before hitting free agency or getting the franchise tag.
Additionally, Elliott could indirectly hurt his own value by sitting out too long. The Cowboys invested a third-round pick in Tony Pollard and a seventh-round pick in Mike Weber during the 2019 NFL Draft. Pollard and Weber can combine to provide roughly 80% of Elliott’s production at a fraction of the cost. It’s worth noting that the Cowboys went 3-1 in 2017 when they had Tyron Smith and not Ezekiel Elliott.
What to Do About the Ezekiel Elliott Holdout
Realistically, the Cowboys are going to pay Elliott to be an elite running back. One way or another, it’s going to get done. Chances are the team won’t go into the regular season without their star running back, even if the numbers suggest Elliott won’t be worth anything close to his contract.
Elliott is probably the best running back in the league, and it’s hard to blame him for wanting financial security as soon as possible. Objectively, the Cowboys shouldn’t give it to him. They have enough good players at more important positions, and they’ll need every last cent to keep them in town. Tony Pollard and Mike Weber can do an adequate job in the run game, allowing the Cowboys to sign Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, and other stars while maintaining depth throughout the roster.
The Cowboys SHOULD look for a trade partner and try to get a high draft pick for Elliott. Realistically, Dallas will extend Elliott and use roughly 10% of the salary cap on the most replaceable position in football.
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