Nobody saw their fantasy football stock rise more throughout 2018 than Damien Williams. After starting the year buried on the Kansas City Chiefs depth chart, the former Miami Dolphin burst onto the scene late in the year. Taking over the starting job in Week 15, Williams finished as the RB2 in half-PPR scoring after becoming the lead back. Williams is in position to remain the starter, but can he extrapolate his success into a full 16-game season?
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Fantasy Football 2019 Outlook: Damien Williams
2018 Recap
On paper, Damien Williams was everything the Chiefs needed to close out the 2018 season. After releasing Kareem Hunt and benching Spencer Ware, the former fifth-round pick became one of the brightest stars in the league. Over the final three weeks of the regular season, Williams recorded 203 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 34 attempts (5.97 YPC) to go along with 14 receptions for 119 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets. This impressive run made him the RB2 in half-PPR scoring, and he continued his success into the playoffs. During Kansas City’s two-game playoff run, Williams recorded 159 yards and two touchdowns on 35 carries and 10 receptions for 91 yards and two touchdowns.
These statistics are obviously impressive, and Williams never had a bad fantasy performance as a starter. However, it’s worth noting that this success came in a considerably small sample. Prior to joining the Chiefs, Williams averaged just 3.6 yards-per-carry during his four years with Miami. The grand majority of his NFL career has been unremarkable, so what made him so good in 2018?
Unfortunately, the underlying numbers suggest Williams didn’t magically transform into a better running back overnight. Opposing defenses were concerned about stopping Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City’s aerial attack that they devoted basically no resources to stopping the run. Williams faced an average of just 6.4 men in the box per carry, easily below the league-average rate. Additionally, he didn’t make guys miss, as he ranked 112th in yards created per carry. Basically, he only got the yards allotted to him by the offensive line.
2019 Projection
Damien Williams had a perfect situation in 2018, but that favorable environment might not be there in 2019. For one, Tyreek Hill’s status is still very much in the air. As of this posting, Hill is still under investigation for his role in the child assault case. Keeping the focus solely on fantasy football, it’s hard to imagine Hill not serving a significant suspension, at the very least.
Without Hill, this offense is completely different. Patrick Mahomes will make teams respect the pass, but Kansas City won’t have a game-breaking weapon to beat defenses over the top. Because of this, teams should be able to devote more resources to stopping the running game. Williams has yet to prove he’s capable of making plays on his own, and his production could take a serious nosedive without Hill.
Williams will enter the year as the starter, but it might not stay that way for long. The Chiefs signed Carlos Hyde in free agency to serve as the backup, but he could take over as a starter if Williams struggles. Say what you will about Hyde, but everyone would have called him the superior back one year ago.
Hyde doesn’t offer much as a pass-catcher, so the surprise star could be sixth-round rookie Darwin Thompson. Thompson offers upside as both a runner and a receiver and is already standing out in practices.
Damien Williams Average Draft Position
As of this posting, Fantasy Football Calculator has Williams as the 22nd overall pick in half-PPR scoring formats. This lands him just behind guys like Nick Chubb and Mike Evans and just ahead of players like Adam Thielen, T.Y. Hilton, and Marlon Mack.
Quite frankly, this is probably too high to take Williams. While he had a great run in 2018, almost all of his success was due to his situation. Williams had a high snap percentage and capitalized against defenses who only cared about stopping the pass. Additionally, his success came in a small sample, so fantasy owners should be wary about the minuscule data.
With Tyreek Hill presumably gone, defenses won’t have to devote as many resources to stopping the pass. Hill’s speed made defenses defend every inch of the field, and they won’t have to do that anymore. With more defenders closer to the line, Williams will look more and more like his pre-Kansas City form. He’ll see a heavy workload to start the season, but don’t be surprised if he has an Alex Collins–esque fall from grace.
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