Tyler Boyd had himself a nice third-year breakout season in 2018 but can we count on similar production in 2019? After getting drafted in the second round in 2016, Boyd did very little in his first two seasons as a pro. Is it reasonable to think that he can repeat his production from a season ago? A season when he was thrust into the spotlight due, in part, to a few great performances early on and some increased volume after A.J. Green was sidelined with injury from week 10 on. Well, let’s dive in and sort out what we can expect from Boyd in his fourth year as a pro and what his impact will be for fantasy football in 2019.
Editors note: Click here for Boyd’s updated projection following the A.J. Green injury.
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Is Regression Coming for Tyler Boyd in 2019?
Sure, there’s a chance that Boyd regresses in 2019. However, if he continues to serve in a similar role to the one he played in the early going of 2018 for the Cincinnati Bengals offense, Boyd should still be viewed as a low-end WR2 for 2019. Let me explain why.
Boyd showed last season that he could thrive playing alongside Green. In the games that the two played together, Boyd’s numbers were solid as he averaged 17.7 PPR points per game. That was even better than when Boyd played without Green the last five weeks of 2018 when he averaged 13.3 PPR points per game.
When Green is on the field, it allows Boyd to move into the slot where he is most effective. Boyd, who is PFF’s fourth-ranked slot receiver, presents a significant threat out of the slot, just like Green does on the outside. This creates a pick your poison scenario for the defense. Most defenses will try to avoid getting beat deep. This means teams are going to play their best defenders on Green giving Boyd the easier matchups. Furthermore, the Bengals run a consolidated passing offense, meaning a major portion of the teams passing targets will be aimed at either Boyd or Green.
Let’s put this in perspective. Outside of maybe their running backs, the Bengals really only have two true receiving threats in Green and Boyd, so a large portion of the team’s targets should be funneled their way. Last season Boyd garnered 22.1 percent of the team’s targets and Green saw 23.5 percent. That’s more than 45 percent of the Bengals passing plays that went their way and I think that number could end up closer to 50 percent this season. All of this leads to the possibility that Boyd, if he stays healthy, should be able to exceed his current late sixth round value.
Boyd is also in a contract year, so money may also be a good motivator for him this season. He is headed into the final year of his rookie contract and naturally will be trying to cash in with his second deal. Boyd’s contract situation is one worth monitoring, as he is currently looking to work out an extension with the Bengals. If he goes into the season without an extension he should remain highly motivated to showcase his skillset. Although, if the Bengals are willing to give Boyd a big contract extension, it would show that they are heavily invested in him.
Either way, Boyd presents a potential buy-low candidate in fantasy drafts this summer as many in fantasy circles are fearful that he could wind up being a one year wonder, hence his current average draft position. Boyd’s current ADP per [Fantasy Football Calculator] is 6.11 or 70th overall. Therefore, if he’s on your draft radar look to target him with your fifth or sixth round pick. In PPR leagues, it might be worth grabbing him one round earlier. You have got to love the idea of drafting a top-five graded slot receiver in the fifth or sixth round for a PPR league.
Tyler Boyd was the first receiver, whose name is not AJ Green, to lead the Bengals in receiving since 2010 when Terrell Owens did it. While Boyd’s 2018 season, in which he had 76 receptions, for 1,028 yards and seven touchdowns, was the high-water mark for his career, the potential for him to replicate that production is undeniable.
I like to think of Boyd in the same light as 2018 JuJu Smith-Schuster. Like Smith-Schuster did in 2018, Boyd has a legitimate star receiver that will draw the attention of most opponents’ top cornerbacks. In turn, this leaves Boyd with easier matchups for he and Andy Dalton to exploit, much like they did the first eight games of 2018, when both Green and Boyd were healthy. Therefore, as long as that’s the case, Boyd should be in a good position to replicate his 2018 output. Unfortunately, I don’t believe Smith-Schuster-like-production is quite attainable for Boyd while playing with Dalton but he should be a productive receiver, nevertheless.
Here’s a word of warning. When thinking about drafting Boyd this year, Dalton has shown the ability to put up big numbers on a fairly consistent basis in the months of September through November. However, December and January tend to be a different story. For instance, per Pro Football Reference, Dalton in September averages 261 yards passing per game vs. 202 yards passing per game in December. Whether be it the winter weather or the inability of his coaching staff to adjust in season, something has stymied Dalton’s production in the later parts of the season. It would be wise to plan accordingly and anticipate that dropoff come late November.
If you draft Boyd, you don’t necessarily have to draft another receiver just for December. Rather, just work the waiver wire in-season with an eye toward a bargain receiver with late-season upside. You could grab someone on the IR designated to return list, if a high caliber receiver becomes available there, or you can draft an extra receiver with late-season upside, like a rookie, for instance.
Another strategy would be to draft Boyd with the intention to buy low and sell high on him before the December downturn. There are lots of different ways to prepare for the inevitable late-season Dalton slump but just make sure you factor it into your thought process when thinking about drafting Boyd.
Last Word on Tyler Boyd
Boyd is a potential buy-low/sell-high candidate with whom you can find nice early season value and look to sell sometime around mid-November. Boyd also makes for an interesting keeper league pick with his mid-round ADP and upside for the future. Boyd holds more value in PPR leagues than in standard leagues because of his role as a slot receiver.
However, Boyd is also a legitimate red zone threat and has the potential to catch a decent amount of touchdowns. In my opinion, a reasonable expectation for Boyd in 2019 would be in the neighborhood of 70 catches, 900 yards, and six to eight touchdowns. However you choose to approach Tyler Boyd this season, just be aware of who he is, what he offers and what his limitations are and set your expectations accordingly. Most importantly, have a plan on how to best utilize him, to maximize the value that he can bring to your fantasy football squad. [Statistical data found at Player Profiler].
