Ever since entering the league, Sammy Watkins has been one of the biggest teases in fantasy football. The former fourth-overall pick has the raw ability to be one of the best receivers in football, but a variety of obstacles prevent him from reaching his ceiling on an annual basis. Whether it’s a foot injury, poor quarterbacking, or a lack of opportunity, Watkins has never quite lived up to his promise. However, Watkins is now the top receiver in one of the best offenses in the league. Is it finally time to ride the annual Sammy Watkins hype train, or will he leave you disappointed once more?
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Fantasy Football 2019 Outlook: Sammy Watkins
2018 Recap
Sammy Watkins had a productive yet unremarkable first year in Kansas City. Serving as the third option in the passing attack, the former Buffalo Bill finished his season with 40 receptions for 519 yards and three touchdowns in 10 games played. He finished the year as the WR62 in standard scoring, but his 7.5 fantasy points-per-game tied him for the WR37 spot. Again, nothing fantastic, but he was certainly worthy of a bench spot in most league formats.
Most of Watkins’ underwhelming numbers were due to a lack of opportunity. Sammy Watkins was great when targeted but wasn’t a startable fantasy option due to all of the other options in the passing game. According to Sharp Football Stats, Watkins had a 116 passer rating and a 63% success rate when targeted. Both numbers were better than Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, which speaks to Watkins’ effectiveness with the ball. Obviously, Watkins wasn’t better than these two, but he got the job done when the coaching staff called his number.
Player Profiler tells a similar story. According to this site, Watkins averaged 1.91 yards of separation per reception. This mark ranked third in the league, meaning that Watkins consistently won his matchups and was elite at getting open. Some of this was due to Hill and Kelce receiving the majority of the defensive focus, but it’s impressive nonetheless. Additionally, Watkins had just one drop all season and had a 72.7% catch rate, 13th-best in the league.
Despite his mediocre total numbers, Watkins was remarkably efficient when targeted. The former first-round pick could see an increased role in 2019, but can he repeat this efficiency with a larger workload?
2019 Outlook
Watkins’ overall projection is entirely dependent upon Tyreek Hill’s status. If the speedy wideout is back in Kansas City, then expect more of the same from Wakins. However, in the very likely scenario where Hill misses 2019, Watkins could be one of the biggest breakout stars in fantasy football.
We’ve been down this road with Watkins before, as his freak athleticism has caused fantasy owners to buy high on the Clemson product in the past. However, the key to a successful fantasy season is overlooking the past frustration and evaluating the player based on their current situation.
If Hill is gone, then Watkins becomes the top wide receiver for arguably the best quarterback in football. Patrick Mahomes can make anyone fantasy relevant, and Watkins has the skill to get open against top competition. While he won’t see the same favorable coverage that he did in 2018, opposing defenses will still devote most of their resources to stopping Travis Kelce. He’ll face better cornerbacks, but he probably won’t see many double teams. Watkins can easily beat this type of coverage and should see a significant increase in targets.
Additionally, the narrative surrounding Watkins’ injury history is overblown. While he has battled foot issues, he’s typically available for the majority of the season. Sammy Watkins has played in 10 or more games in four of his five seasons and played 13 or more games three times. All players carry injury risk, but Watkins tends to be available for the grand majority of the NFL season. While he carries slightly more risk than the average receiver, you shouldn’t pass on Watkins solely because of his injury history.
Sammy Watkins Average Draft Position
As of this posting, Fantasy Football Calculator has Watkins going off the board with the 65th overall pick in half-PPR scoring formats. This draft position puts him slightly behind receivers like Mike Williams and Tyler Boyd and just ahead of Alshon Jeffery and D.J. Moore.
Assuming Tyreek Hill doesn’t play, getting Watkins in the sixth round is an absolute steal. Watkins is currently penciled in as the WR1 in what should be one of the most high-powered offenses in the league. Watkins was remarkably efficient in 2018, which shows that he should be able to handle a larger role in Kansas City’s offense. Opposing defenses will try to stop Travis Kelce, so Watkins won’t face many double teams. While he will face better cornerbacks, the added targets easily offset the improved coverage.
Watkins has an injury history, but the extent of his injury woes are vastly overblown. Watkins normally plays the majority of the season and only misses a small handful of games. Every player comes with injury risk, so there’s no guarantee Watkins stays healthy. However, his risk is similar to that of just about any other player in the NFL.
As long as Tyreek Hill is off the field, Watkins has low-end WR1 upside. While he’ll probably end up as a WR2, he’d be an absolute steal in the sixth round. Don’t let previous disappointment cloud your judgment, Watkins is poised for a big season as Kansas City’s top wide receiver.
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