Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots coaching staff have their work cut out for them in Super Bowl LIII. Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay is arguably the best offensive mind in the league, and the Rams offense as a whole has been one of the most dangerous in football. At first glance, it would appear as though the Rams do most of their damage out of 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, and three receivers on the field). However, a further examination shows that the Patriots Super Bowl LIII gameplan should focus around stopping the Rams in 12 personnel, not 11.
New England Patriots Super Bowl LIII Gameplan: Make the Rams Win From 11, Not 12 Personnel
No team ran more plays from 11 personnel over the course of the 2019 season than the Los Angeles Rams. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Rams used 11 personnel on 89% of their offensive snaps. Considering the Rams finished the year ranked second in both points per game and DVOA, one would naturally assume the Rams were dominant with this personnel grouping. There’s some truth to this, as Los Angeles finished the season with a 53% success rate on plays from 11 personnel. By comparison, the league average success rate was 47%, so Los Angeles was certainly doing something right.
However, the Rams offense has shifted dramatically since Week 16. Ever since Todd Gurley first suffered a knee injury, the Rams have used 11 personnel on just 69% of their offensive plays. In place of a third receiver, the Rams have sent out an extra tight end, going heavy in 12 personnel. This change has worked wonders, as Los Angeles has a league-leading 64% success rate from 12 personnel since Week 16.
Gurley hasn’t looked healthy throughout the playoffs, so the Rams could continue to roll with C.J. Anderson as their top running back. However, even if Gurley returns, look for the Rams to continue sending out 12 personnel on a fairly frequent basis. Even with Gurley in the lineup, Los Angeles had a season-long 62% success rate using 12 personnel. Los Angeles has always been good with 12 personnel, and they should continue to use it in the Super Bowl.
How Do the Patriots Match Up?
The Los Angeles Rams are one of the best offenses in football from the 12 personnel, so the Patriots defense will be in for a tough challenge. New England’s defense is around league average at defending these types of personnel groupings. According to Sharp Football Stats, New England’s defense finished the season with a 52% success rate allowed against 12 personnel, while the league average was 49%. The Patriots were remarkably consistent at defending this grouping, as they allowed an identical 52% success rate to this grouping before and after the bye week.
The Rams are equally effective passing and running from 12 personnel, so stopping this offense isn’t as simple as selling out against a certain play. Since the Patriots have to be equally worried about the run and the pass, their top two front seven players will need to be at their best. Kyle Van Noy and Trey Flowers will ultimately determine if New England is capable of taking away what the Rams do best. Both players can do a little bit of everything from setting the edge to making tackles and rushing the passer. Flowers has been one of the best edge rushers in football since 2016 while Van Noy has taken his game to another level in the postseason. If these two can disrupt Jared Goff and the Rams running game in 12 personnel, the Rams become significantly easier to beat.
Fielding the Best Team
Additionally, don’t expect to see Adrian Clayborn in any capacity on Super Bowl Sunday. Clayborn is a good pass rusher but is an active liability in the running game. The Rams are a zone running team and absolutely love running the ball off-tackle. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Rams average 5.6 yards-per-carry on runs behind left tackle and 6.8 yards-per-carry on runs off left tackle. Los Angeles could run right at Clayborn all day, especially from the heavier 12 personnel.
New England made the smart decision to activate Clayborn in the AFC Championship Game, as the Patriots top priority was disrupting the timing of superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes. However, this week the focus should be on stopping the running game. The rest of New England’s pass rush is good enough to disturb Goff that they won’t need Clayborn and his subpar run defense. In his place, look for New England to utilize the run-stuffing Danny Shelton on the interior.
Last Word on the New England Patriots Super Bowl LIII Gameplan
The Los Angeles Rams run more plays from 11 personnel than any other team in the league, but that’s not what makes them dangerous. The Rams are perhaps the best team when using two tight end sets, and New England needs to be ready for heavier formations. Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson thrive running behind these types of formations, and the Rams offense as a whole is more efficient from 12 personnel than it is from 11.
On the whole, New England’s defense is average against 12 personnel. Their 52% success rate allowed falls right around league average, but they’ve never faced an offense this good from two tight end sets. In order to stop this grouping, Trey Flowers and Kyle Van Noy will need to be at the top of their games. Both guys are the two best players on New England’s front seven and are capable of playing the run and pass at a borderline-elite level.
On the other side of the coin, New England’s best chance to win involves Adrian Clayborn spending the day on the bench. Clayborn is a decent situational pass rusher, but he’s too much of a liability against the run. Los Angeles is one of the best outside run teams in the league, and Clayborn is simply a bad fit for this matchup. Instead of using Clayborn, the Patriots should activate Danny Shelton and focus on getting big bodies in the trenches. The Patriots are all about taking away an opponents best strength. If the Rams are going to beat New England, they’ll need to do it without their two tight end sets.
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