The sad news about Josh Gordon being suspended once again for violating the NFL drug policy broke earlier today. Hopefully, Gordon can find the help and guidance that he needs to get his life together and move forward in peace. The news comes at a very inconvenient time of year when the New England Patriots and many fantasy footballers are in the midst of some of the most meaningful games of their seasons. Unfortunately, I’m not in any position to help Gordon. All I can do is wish him well. However, I do have a platform to help those of you who are still playing for something in fantasy football. So, what will the Patriots do? How will they move forward without Gordon, and how will this impact the fantasy football landscape here during championship week and beyond.
Josh Gordon Suspended: What Happens Now
How Will the Patriots Replace Gordon
Gordon has been an integral part of the Patriots offense since being traded to the team by the Cleveland Browns on September 17, 2018. Gordon has been a staple in the offense in two wide receiver sets ever since he began playing meaningful snaps in Week Five. Now, without Gordon, the Patriots are left with a platoon of good but not great receivers. So, who will fill Gordon’s shoes out of Cordarrelle Patterson, Chris Hogan, and Phillip Dorsett? The short answer would be all of them in one capacity or another. However, I intend to dive deep into the stats to figure out who could offer us the most value out of the three.
Now, to be clear, none of the receivers that I listed above are worth playing in anything less than a 14-team league. These are all deep dives. That said, one of them will likely provide some upside for use in deeper leagues or as a DFS dart throw for GPP tournaments. So let’s start by looking at all of their stats from earlier in the season when Gordon was not with the team or playing meaningful snaps yet.
Here are the stats for Patterson, Hogan, and Dorsett in weeks one through four. Remember, besides Gordon not being with the team, Julian Edelman was also suspended.
Patterson’s stats weeks one through four (1/1/6/0, 5/3/18/0, 1/1/12/0, 5/3/54/1)
Hogan’s stats weeks one through four (5/1/11/0, 5/3/42/2, 4/3/31/0, 1/1/25/0)
Dorsett’s stats weeks one through four (7/7/66/1, 7/5/44/0, 5/0/0/0, 7/4/55/1)
As you can see, it was Dorsett who dominated the targets early in the season before Gordon arrived. He profiles as the best direct replacement for Gordon. His speed and ability to make big plays show up in the above stat lines. Of course, he is still a bit of a boom/bust option for fantasy football which is also evident in the stats above. The relative unknown amount of playing time each receiver will see also compounds the risk. However, if I had to pick one of these receivers to replace Gordon in the lineup it would be Dorsett.
Last Word on the Fantasy Impacts of the Josh Gordon Suspension
The biggest impact of the Gordon suspension will likely be felt by Tom Brady and his fantasy investors. Chances are, the Patriots will look to their running backs to help fill the void now left in the passing game by the departure of Gordon. James White is a player that I’d like to highlight for his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Look for White to be heavily involved in the passing game moving forward. Particularly this week when the Patriots face the Buffalo Bills, a team that White had 13 targets when playing against them earlier this season.
Sony Michel will be another big benefactor of Gordon’s departure from the team. The Patriots will have to run the ball effectively if they want to stay competitive the rest of the way. Not only to help there offense but to help their defense. A rested defense typically plays better than one that gets off of the field then sent right back out after a few incomplete passes. Not to mention the loss of Gordon means it will be more difficult to make a comeback late in a game if the Patriots get behind. So pounding the rock to shorten games makes sense.
With Rob Gronkowski on the decline and Gordon now suspended, the Patriots will need to lean on their running game. Expect a decline in passing attempts from Brady and an uptick in usage for the running backs. Use Dorsett at your own risk, even though he does provide the most sleeper upside potential of the three remaining receivers that are left on the Patriots roster. I would rank them Dorsett, Hogan, then Patterson. I hope this has been helpful to you.
Remember, this is the Patriots that we are talking about. There’s no guarantee that what they did in the past is what they will do in the future. All we can do is go off of the information that is available to us. Trying to get into the mind of Bill Belichick to figure out how he’s going to deploy his players can be like trying to figure out a Rubix cube. Good luck with that! So use these players at your own risk.
