Well, that was awful. The New England Patriots lost an absolute heartbreaker in Miami, dealing a big blow to their playoff chances. Instead of being 10-3 with the AFC East wrapped up, New England is now 9-4 with home-field advantage looking more and more unlikely. The Patriots will still make the playoffs, but let’s take a look at how the Miami loss affects the New England Patriots playoff picture.
Updated New England Patriots Playoff Picture
Where the Patriots Currently Sit
Despite losing in Week 14, the New England Patriots still have the inside track at claiming one of the top two seeds. For possibly the first time in franchise history, the Patriots owe a big thank you to the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts squared off against the Houston Texans, emerging victorious and dropping Houston to 9-4 on the season.
The Patriots and Texans have the same record, but New England holds the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to their Week One victory. If both teams finish with the same record, the Patriots should earn the higher seed. Of course, that could change if a third division winner ends the season with the same record, but that seems unlikely. The Kansas City Chiefs are basically untouchable (more on that later), and the Pittsburgh Steelers have a tie in their record.
Even if the Steelers didn’t have the tie, it’s highly unlikely the Patriots fall behind them in the standings. Pittsburgh is 7-5-1 with three games to play and just dropped a loss to an objectively terrible Oakland Raiders squad. The Steelers would need to win out and have the Pats lose two of their next three to overtake New England in the standings.
How to Get the One Seed
Obtaining home-field advantage throughout the playoffs isn’t likely, but it can be done. Kansas City currently holds the top spot, but the Patriots hold the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to their Week Six victory. If both teams finish with the same record, the Patriots will get the higher seed.
In order for this to happen, the Patriots will need to win two more games than the Chiefs. This is a difficult task made harder by the fact there are only three games left in the season. The Chiefs aren’t going to lose out, so the Patriots need to win out. Kansas City still has to play two good teams in the Los Angeles Chargers and the Seattle Seahawks, so there is a nonzero chance that this happens. Kansas City finishes the season against the Oakland Raiders, and there is no way they lose that game.
Of course, there’s also the pesky Chargers to consider. Thanks to an objectively-broken playoff seeding system, the 10-4 Los Angeles Chargers are currently the fifth seed. If the Chargers win the AFC West and finish with the same record as the Patriots, home-field advantage will be determined by win-loss record in the conference. At the moment, it’s impossible to tell how this tiebreaker will go, since so many games still have to be played.
For the sake of being conservative, let’s assume the Chargers would hold the advantage here. In order to ensure the Patriots win home-field advantage, they’d need the Chiefs to lose two games and the Chargers to lose one. Kansas City and Los Angeles face off in Week 15, so New England will probably be rooting for the Chargers there. After that, the Chargers will need to lose to either the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16 or the Denver Broncos in Week 17. They’d also need the Chiefs to lose one more and the Patriots themselves would need to win out.
All in all, this doesn’t seem very likely.
How To Get the Two Seed
While winning home-field advantage feels like a lost cause, earning the number two seed is easy. If the Patriots win out, the second bye week is all theirs. The Patriots have to travel into Pittsburgh in Week 15 before facing the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets at home to end the season. Winning out is very much in the realm of possibility and is the easiest way to ensure the Patriots get a much-needed week of rest.
The Steelers basically ended their own chances at the two seed with their 24-21 loss against the Raiders. The Texans, however, are still very much in play for the bye week. As previously mentioned, the Patriots have the head-to-head tiebreaker. However, if the Patriots drop a game, they’d need Houston to do the same.
Texans, Steelers Remaining Schedule
For the sake of discussion, let’s say the Patriots drop one of their next three games. Based on their opponents’ schedule, is there a way New England could still earn a bye week?
In short, probably not. As it is, Houston has an identical record to the New England Patriots. If the Patriots lose a game, Houston would also need to lose in order for the Patriots to keep a bye. Looking at Houston’s schedule, it’s hard to imagine the Texans dropping another game this year.
Houston closes out their season facing the underwhelming New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, and Jacksonville Jaguars. While the Eagles at least have the potential to put up a fight, the other two teams are nothing more than speed bumps. It’s football, so anything can happen, but Houston should comfortably win all three games.
The Steelers, however, are a different story. Pittsburgh hosts the Patriots in Week 15, which will not be an easy matchup for them. The Steelers haven’t beat the Patriots since 2011, and the games aren’t usually that close. While New England isn’t at their best this year, the Steelers are also in a bit of a down year. This should be a close one, but the Patriots should win.
Even if they don’t, Pittsburgh faces an even bigger challenge in Week 16. The black and gold travel down to New Orleans to take on Drew Brees in the Superdome. The Saints are significantly better at home than on the road, so the Steelers should be expected to lose again.
Basically, it’s hard to imagine the Patriots falling any further than the third seed. Even though Houston has an easy schedule, the Steelers have two difficult matchups before the regular season closes. New England already has a 1.5-game lead on Pittsburgh, so Pittsburgh is all but locked into the four seed if they lose even one more game. Considering the four seed will have to face either the Chiefs or the Chargers, the Patriots should be thrilled that it would take an act of God to fall that far.
Last Word on the New England Patriots Playoff Picture
This one hurts, there’s no denying that. However, the Patriots Week 14 loss isn’t the end of the world. New England still has a chance to get the one seed and earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. However, that scenario requires the Patriots to not only win out but also get quite a bit of help. This loss all but ensures this won’t happen.
That said, the Patriots still have the inside track to earning a playoff bye. The Houston Texans also dropped their Week 14 matchup, and New England has the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Pittsburgh Steelers, the presumed AFC North winners, have a tie in their record, meaning it’s all-but-impossible for there to be a three-way tie. As long as the Patriots take care of business in their next three games, they’ll earn a bye week.
If they drop one, they’re in trouble. Houston has an easy finishing schedule and probably won’t lose for the rest of the season. Pittsburgh is a bit of a wildcard, as they also have to play the New Orleans Saints in the Superdome. This won’t be easy for them, and New Orleans will probably win. New England will most likely end up with the two seed, but probably won’t be any worse than the third seed. With one of the Chiefs or Chargers destined to get the five seed, getting the third seed wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.
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