The New England Patriots defense had an easy matchup in Week Eight, facing a Buffalo Bills team with arguably the worst quarterback situation in football. That will not be the case in Week Nine when the Patriots go up against the great Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is arguably the most dangerous quarterbacks in football and the New England Patriots Week Nine gameplan will need to be perfect if the Patriots are to slow down the Packers offense.
New England Patriots Week Nine Gameplan: First Down Top Priority
First off, let’s establish that it’s physically impossible to stop the Green Bay Packers offense. Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL who doesn’t play for the Patriots, and he’s surrounded by a series of strong weapons headlined by wide receiver Davante Adams. Stopping this offense cannot be done, but it can be slowed.
By just about every measure, this offense is one of the best in the league. Aaron Rodgers has been his normal dominant self, throwing for 2,283 yards and 13 touchdowns to just one interception through his first seven games.
As a unit, the Packers are averaging 25.0 points per game, good for 13th in the league. While this number isn’t anything spectacular on its own, that’s mostly because the Packers offense hasn’t been healthy for most of the year. However, the Packers offense will be healthy Week Nine, as Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Randall Cobb are all expected to play.
The Packers Fatal Flaw
It’s hard to find anything that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers aren’t good at, but there is one area in which the Packers offense underperforms. The Green Bay Packers success rate on long-yardage plays is below the league average. Climbing out of these holes isn’t easy for Green Bay, so the Patriots need to do everything they can do ensure Green Bay doesn’t have success on first down.
Before we get too far in this analysis, let’s establish what makes a play successful. In essence, a successful play is simply a play which picked up enough yards to keep the offense on track. That means getting 40% of the yards to go on first down, 60% on second down, and picking up a new set of downs on third down.
Now that we’ve established what a successful play is, let’s look at what the Packers do in certain situations. By looking at the numbers, it’s clear as day that the Packers excel in short-yardage situations. Green Bay has a 73% success rate on second and short (one-three yards to go), compared to a league average success rate of 62%. Likewise, the Packers have a 71% success rate on third and short, compared to a league average rate of 61%. Basically, the Packers offense is one of the best in the league any time they’re facing a short yardage situation.
However, that is not the case when defenses put them in a big hole. When facing second and long (eight-10 yards), the Packers offense is only successful 37% of the time. This number drops to 21% when the Packers are facing second-and-11+. The league average success rate in these situations in 42% and 29%, respectively.
This trend stays true on third down. Faced with third and long, Green Bay only gets the first down 32% of the time. On third and 11+, the Packers only move the chains 11% of the time. The league average success rate, meanwhile, is 31% and 15%, respectively.
How To Stop Green Bay on First Down
Looking at the numbers, it’s clear to see that the Packers just aren’t the same offense when facing long yardage situations. That’s not to say they’re necessarily bad, just average to slightly-below-average. Any time you’re facing Aaron Rodgers and can find a way to make him look average, you do it.
The key to all this is playing good first-down defense and putting Rodgers and company in a hole early. The Patriots did a good job of this last week, but that was against the lowly Bills. Bragging about stopping them is like bragging about beating a Pop Warner team.
The New England Patriots will need to take away what the Packers like to do on early downs. When looking at the numbers, Green Bay throws the ball 61% of the time on first down and runs it 39% of the time. However, despite this high pass rate, their most common play on first-and-10 is a run to Jamaal Williams. Williams shares a committee role with Aaron Jones, so the Patriots should expect a run any time Williams comes in on first down.
However, while that is their most frequent play, it’s not their most successful. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has seen five targets on first-and-10 this season, converting four of those targets into successful plays. On the ground, Aaron Rodgers actually has the highest first down success rate, converting 80% of his early-down runs into successful plays.
Davante Adams is obviously the best wide receiver on the Packers, and stopping him should be New England’s top priority. However, the analytics show that Valdes-Scantling has actually been the most successful receiver on these crucial early downs. Any time the Packers have three or more receivers on the field, New England should shift some defensive focus to stopping him.
Last Word on New England Patriots Week Nine Gameplan
Stopping the Green Bay Packers offense completely is asking the impossible, and slowing it down isn’t easy. However, it can be done if the Patriots defense puts the Packers is long yardage situations. When that happens, the Packers offense goes from good to average, which is really the best you could hope for.
The key to doing this is winning the first-down battles. The Packers throw the ball on 61% of first downs, but they love running Jamaal Williams on first down. Any time he’s in the backfield, New England needs to be ready for him to get the ball.
Stephon Gilmore should cover Davante Adams, as he is the clear top option in the Packers passing attack. However, the Patriots also need to shift attention to Marquez Valdes-Scantling on these early downs. While he doesn’t have the largest sample in the world, he’s turning 80% of his first-down targets into successful plays.
Additionally, the Patriots should think about leaving a spy in the middle of the field. Rodgers likes to scramble when he can’t find an open man, and 80% of his first-down scrambles are successful. Using an extra safety or an athletic player like Nicholas Grigsby to contain Rodgers would be a smart move.
Again, this won’t completely stop the Packers offense. Nobody can do that. However, doing this will be enough to force a few punts or make the Packers settle for field goals instead of touchdowns. When Tom Brady is the quarterback, that’s all you need to do to give him a chance to win games. As long as the Packers offense is somewhat slowed, the Patriots should feel good about their chances on Sunday.
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