There may not a bigger disappointment in fantasy football among players actually playing than running back David Johnson. Johnson, on average, was drafted third overall but has put up pedestrian numbers through seven games. In his most recent outing, Johnson recorded just 39 rushing yards and 31 receiving yards against one of the worst rush defenses in football.
However, despite all this, now is the perfect time to trade for the embattled running back. David Johnson’s struggles are entirely due to inept coaching, and a change will probably happen sooner rather than later. Once offensive coordinator Mike McCoy is gone, expect David Johnson to return to his old form. It’s happened before, and it will happen again.
(Update: The Arizona Cardinals have fired Mike McCoy. Continue reading to see how new offensive coodinator Byron Leftswitch can improve on McCoy’s shortcomings)
Fantasy Football: Trade For David Johnson Right Now
Johnson is arguably the most talented back in the league, so it’s hard for one coach to ruin a player like him all by himself. Is Johnson underperforming by his own merits, or is Mike McCoy just that bad?
An analytical dive into the numbers shows that McCoy is just that bad. Johnson is one of the most elusive, dangerous back in the open field and on runs to the outside. Back in 2016, Johnson averaged 8.4 yards per carry off of left tackle and 5.4 yards when running behind right tackle.
Mike McCoy, for inexplicable reasons, has decided to completely ignore the strengths of his running back. So far on the season, McCoy has called a disproportionate amount of runs directly up the middle. Per SharpFootballStats.com, a staggering 60% of Johnson’s runs have done directly up the middle for an average of 3.5 yards per carry.
Preferring to run up the middle is one thing, but McCoy is taking things to an extreme. Teams know exactly where the ball is going every single time Johnson gets the ball, and they’re able to key in on it. It would be one thing if the Cardinals were any good at running the ball up the middle, but Johnson’s 3.5 yards per carry and 31% success rate on runs up the middle shows the Cardinals are terrible at this.
Additionally, McCoy refuses to use Johnson in the passing game. Johnson is one of the most dangerous pass-catching backs in the league, yet McCoy refuses to utilize him in the passing game. On the season, Johnson is averaging just 4.3 targets per game. When taking away his nine-target Week One performance, this number drops to just 3.8.
Different Place, Same Coach
Fortunately for Johnson, this isn’t the first time something like this has happened with McCoy. Back in 2013, the San Diego Chargers invested the 15th overall draft pick in running back Melvin Gordon. Despite his immense talent, Gordon struggled his rookie season, running for just 3.5 yards per carry. He didn’t contribute much in the passing game, recording just 192 yards on 33 receptions. Most notably though, Gordon didn’t find the endzone once despite touching the ball 217 times.
After a bounce-back 2016, Gordon put himself on the national spotlight in 2017. The third-year running back ran for 1,105 yards and eight touchdowns while adding 476 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 58 receptions. He’s been even better in 2018, as he’s currently the second-best running back in traditional fantasy football scoring.
The common denominator between Johnson and Gordon? Mike McCoy. McCoy was San Diego’s head coach during Gordon’s first two years in the league. While Gordon had a good season in 2016, his best work came after McCoy left the building. Outside of a 2012 season in which Peyton Manning carried him to glory, McCoy has never operated a top-five offense in the NFL. He’s had the players to do it, but never the coaching ability.
McCoy’s Time Is Running Out
Quite frankly, this problem isn’t getting fixed as long as McCoy is around. There’s more than enough evidence to show that he’s simply not good at being an NFL offensive coordinator, and there’s no reason to expect him to suddenly figure it out.
Fortunately, the Arizona Cardinals are coming to this same conclusion. Prior to the Cardinals’ embarrassing 45-10 loss, head coach Steve Wilks said that “…all of [the coaching] jobs are in jeopardy, including mine, if we don’t win”. Wilks is eight games into his head coaching tenure, which is not nearly enough time for the Cardinals organization to fire him outright.
It is enough time, however, to fire an offensive coordinator. This wouldn’t be the first time this has happened for McCoy, as he was fired midway through Vance Joseph’s maiden voyage with the Denver Broncos. Last year, McCoy was fired in November, but it looks like he’s on pace to lose his job even earlier this year.
This isn’t just the speculation of a random blogger. ESPN staff writer Josh Weinfuss wrote this morning that McCoy could be on the way out the door as early as this week. While Wilks said that it’s still too early to talk about changes, don’t expect that to last for long. McCoy could, and should, be fired and replaced before Arizona’s Week Eight matchup against the San Francisco 49ers.
Last Word on David Johnson
It hasn’t been an easy season for David Johnson, but it’s about to get a lot better. Johnson’s struggles are entirely due to astonishingly poor play calling and offensive schemes, and that problem is about to be jettisoned out the door.
As of now, it’s unclear who will replace McCoy as offensive coordinator. However, no matter who it is, they will do a better job. McCoy has a long and storied history of shortcomings, and Johnson is a generational talent. It takes a lot to slow down a player as good as Johnson, so as long as the new guy isn’t horrific at his job, Johnson should start producing like his old self.
Find the David Johnson owner in your fantasy league and buy low while you still can. When everything’s going right, Johnson could be the best running back in fantasy football. With McCoy soon to be out of the way, David Johnson is a true “set and forget” option capable of winning your fantasy league all by himself.
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