After being one of the lesser units in football through the first three weeks, the Chicago Bears offense has put together consecutive strong performances. As mentioned in the Patriots-Bears Week Seven Breakdown, one of the biggest reasons for this newfound success is the emergence of running back Tarik Cohen. Put simply, Chicago’s offense moves better when Cohen is on the field, so the Bears should continue to use him as a workhorse. In terms of fantasy, this makes Cohen a must-start in all league formats moving forward.
Fantasy Football: Start Tarik Cohen From Here On Out
Over the past two weeks, the Bears have surprisingly made Tarik Cohen one of the biggest focal points of their passing attack. After seeing just 8% of passing targets through the first three weeks of the season, the Bears have targeted him on 30% of passes over the past two games.
Cohen has made the most of this opportunity, recording 14 receptions for 211 yards and a touchdown since Week Four. Looking beyond traditional stats, Cohen has a 65% success rate when targeted, which is very good, especially for a running back. The Bears have every reason to continue to feed the ball to Cohen, and Cohen has the ability to keep producing.
While Cohen’s presence has been the difference in the passing game, he’s no slouch in the running game either. On the season, Cohen has recorded 170 yards and a touchdown on 32 attempts, good for 5.3 yards per attempt. Of course, yards per attempt is an imperfect stat. Fortunately, all of Cohen’s underlying numbers as a runner suggest that the Bears would be foolish to take him out of the game.
Cohen currently has a 59.4% success rate on rush attempts this year. This means that simply put, Cohen puts his team in a favorable position 60% of the time he runs the ball. The league average success rate is 45.9%, so Cohen is 13.5% more successful than the league-average running back. Additionally, Cohen can successfully run both between and outside the tackles. His success rate is above the league average when running behind every position except left tackle. Put simply, Cohen is a dangerous weapon in the passing and running game, and the Bears cannot afford to keep him off the field.
Usurping Howard
The biggest worry for Tarik Cohen fantasy owners is that the Bears also have another good running back in Jordan Howard. Howard is more of a traditional, between-the-tackles back and could threaten to steal valuable playing time from Cohen. Howard has been one of the better pure rushers through his first two years in the league, recording a combined 2,435 yards and 15 touchdowns on 528 rushing attempts.
However, 2018 has not been as kind to Howard, as he’s run for just 272 yards and a touchdown on 78 attempts. His 3.5 yards per carry is the worst of his career, and his 78 receiving yards on 10 receptions is not justification for keeping him in on passing downs.
The underlying peripherals tell a similar story. Howard has a 51.3% success rate on rushing attempts, which isn’t bad in its’ own right. As previously mentioned, the league average rate is 45.9%, so Howard is actually a slightly above average back this year. However, Howard’s 51.3% success rate is a far cry from Cohen’s 59.3% success rate.
It’s no surprise that Howard is not the receiving back that Cohen is. However, so far in 2018, Cohen has been the better overall runner. While Howard is still a good running back in his own right, Cohen simply produces more every single time he touches the ball. Put simply, there’s no reason to have Howard on the field over Cohen.
The Bears coaching staff is starting to come to this same conclusion. While Howard has a higher share of snaps on the season (62.46% to Cohen’s 41.64%), Howard is trending in a downward direction. Howard’s snap count has decreased in each of the past four games, dropping from 72.7% in Week Two all the way to 51.4% in Week Six.
Cohen, meanwhile, has been the primary beneficiary. Cohen’s snap count has increased from 31.8% in Week Two to 48.6% in Week Six. In a related note, the Bears offense has come alive with Cohen’s emergence, posting their two best offensive performances in the past two weeks.
Week Seven Matchup
Even if you don’t believe in Cohen as a week in, week out starter, at least put him in your lineup for Week Seven. Cohen and the Bears go up against a New England Patriots team which struggles to defend running backs.
On the season, the Patriots allow an average of 60.2 passing yards per game to running backs, fifth-worst in the league. If you play in a PPR league, the Patriots defense allows an average of nine receptions to running backs per game, tied for fourth-worst in the NFL. While Football Outsiders ranks them a respectable 16th in defending running backs, New England allows significant yards and receptions to running backs.
Outside of Kareem Hunt, the Patriots simply have not faced a running back as good as Cohen. Hunt went wild against New England, running for 80 yards on ten carries and recording five receptions for 105 yards and a touchdown. While you shouldn’t expect Cohen to put up that absurd a stat line, it goes to show that New England struggles to contain top running backs.
Lesser running backs than Hunt have had big games against New England. In Week Five, Indianapolis Colts running back Nyheim Hines recorded 45 rushing yards and 45 receiving yards on seven receptions. In Week Three, Detroit Lions running back Kerryon Johnson became the first Lions running back to eclipse 100 yards since Reggie Bush back in 2013. Meanwhile, in Week Two, Jacksonville Jaguars Corey Grant recorded 56 receiving yards on six carries while T.J. Yeldon recorded 58 rushing yards on ten carries.
Starting a running back against the New England Patriots this season has generally been a smart decision, and Cohen is set to be the lead guy going forward. Regardless of what you think of his long-term production alongside Jordan Howard, Cohen is a must-start for Week Seven.
Last Word on Tarik Cohen
Tarik Cohen has a chance to be one of the most successful fantasy football players moving forward, and you cannot afford to leave him on your bench. The Bears has come alive in the past two weeks, in large part because Chicago has started utilizing Cohen on a more frequent basis.
Cohen is devastating as both a rusher and a receiving threat. He receiving statistics speak for themselves, and quarterback Mitch Trubisky owes a lot of his recent success to having a reliable pass catcher out of the backfield. Additionally, Cohen is 13.5% more successful running the ball than the average NFL back, further increasing his value as he develops into one of the more complete backs in football.
Jordan Howard, while still a good running back, can’t hold a candle to Cohen’s production. Cohen is a clearly superior receiving threat and has been a more successful rusher over the course of the 2018 season. The coaching staff recognizes this, as Howard’s snap count has decreased while Cohen’s has increased in every game since Week Two.
Even if you’re not comfortable starting Cohen every game from here on out, he’s a must-start against the New England Patriots. New England allows more yards and receptions to running backs than just about any other team in the league. With Cohen’s skills, there’s no reason to think that his success won’t carry over into Week Six.
Cohen is no Barry Sanders, but he’s more than worthy of earning a starting spot on anyone’s fantasy roster. Cohen’s produced when given the opportunity and should be a major feature of the Bears offense moving forward. Don’t let that much potential waste away on your bench.
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