Mark Ingram returns to the New Orleans Saints this weekend for their matchup at home against the Washington Redskins. This is a big deal in fantasy football and in daily fantasy football. Suddenly, Drew Brees becomes a little less valuable and so does Alvin Kamara. We as fantasy GMs cannot expect the kind of numbers that Brees and Kamara put up in the first few games to be the norm going forward.
How Mark Ingram Impacts His Teammates’ Fantasy Value
Ingram will come in and immediately take on a substantial amount of carries, and likely steal a few targets every week also. Last season, Ingram got 230 carries and 71 targets, turning those into 1,124 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns, and 58 receptions in addition to 416 yards receiving with no touchdowns through the air. I’m not saying Ingram is going to duplicate those numbers, nor will he steal all the running back touches. However, he is a dynamic player in his own right and will be relied on heavily by the Saints.
Assuming that Kamara has now moved past Ingram on the depth chart, I expect that Ingram will get somewhere around 40 percent of the running back snaps moving forward. For reference, Ingram played 54.87 percent of snaps last season while Kamara played on 44.94 percent. A 40 percent snap share in this Saints offense could lead to some significant production for Ingram once again this season. Ingram averages 5.3 yards per touch over his career. That means if Ingram can grab 15 carries and let’s say four catches per game and he performs at his average from last season, that would be 100.7 yards of offense. Throw in a touchdown and you’ve got 16.7 fantasy points in a standard league or 20.7 points in a PPR league.
Now I don’t think Ingram will score that many points every week, but the opportunity will be there and he has the talent to have a big game on any given Sunday. Therefore, Ingram is a number two fantasy running back for now, but don’t be surprised if he has some games with RB1 points production from time to time. I think a reasonable expectation for Ingram, if he stays healthy, would be around 10 points per game in standard leagues and 13.5 points per game in PPR leagues. Statistics found at Pro Football Reference.
What to Expect From the Saints Fantasy Options Now That Mark Ingram Is Back
As for Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas, expect a slight dip in their overall production going forward. Kamara is inevitably going to see a drop in touches but even 75 percent of Kamara’s production through the first four weeks would still keep him in the elite RB1 category. Drew Brees, on the other hand, is now more of a low-end number one quarterback for the rest of the season. The Saints will run the ball more and that should shorten their games and hopefully help their defense out. The defense certainly could use the help. A lot of Brees’ production in the first few games was a direct correlation to the Saints struggling defense. Since the games will be shorter on average, and if the defense picks up their play a little bit, Brees won’t have as many opportunities to throw the ball, nor will he need to throw a ton most weeks.
Some fantasy GMs may not have a better option at quarterback and I wouldn’t blame you for sticking with Brees if you don’t. However, in daily fantasy football, he is now only a viable option when the matchups are good. Meaning, he’s playing at home, against a team with a bad pass defense and a good offense that can force Brees to score a lot of points in order to keep pace. A team like the Pittsburgh Steelers is a good example.
Michael Thomas will also likely see a dip in his production. This season, Thomas has averaged 10.5 receptions per game without Ingram. That’s a far cry from the 6.5 receptions per game he averaged last season when Ingram was playing. Thomas currently has a 111.3 yards per game average this season without Ingram. Last season he averaged 77.8 yards per game with Ingram in the game. Thomas has grown in the offense and his production will stay high, but not nearly as high as it’s been the first quarter of the season. He will probably produce somewhere in the middle of his average production from last season and this season. Thomas will remain a number one receiver in fantasy and he can safely be played every week in season-long fantasy football. In daily fantasy, I would wait a couple of weeks until Thomas’ price comes down a bit before buying in.
Ingram and Kamara can both be started every week in fantasy football. In DFS, Kamara is too expensive this week and is going to be too expensive for a couple of weeks. Because of his high price tag and expected drop in production, it’s best to wait on Kamara for the price to adjust to the new norm with Ingram back. Ingram, on the other hand, is only $5,100 on Draft Kings this week. He’s definitely in play for DFS this week at that price. Player pricing found on Draft Kings.
