Perhaps the most telling characteristic of the Buffalo Bills 2018 schedule is the front-loaded nature of its difficulty. That much is certain given that this series puts six of the team’s opening eight games in the “toughest” category. What it means is that more likely than not, Buffalo will need to hold serve down the stretch.
It’s something they did extremely well last season. Things looked bleak after their 54-24 blowout loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 11 which dropped them to 5-5. But they went 4-2 the rest of the way, got some help from the Cincinnati Bengals, and erased over a decade and a half of frustration in the process.
Two things point to the Bills facing the same situation in 2018. Five of their first eight games come on the road including the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers in successive weeks. Then there’s the fact that the opening half of the 2018 slate concludes with a home game against the defending AFC champion New England Patriots. One can only hope the Bills don’t have too deep a hole to climb out of when the second half of their schedule commences.
Having said all that, it’s time to break down which games will give Buffalo the fewest fits this year.
Buffalo Bills Easiest Games in 2018
9. Week Seven: at Indianapolis Colts
Prior to realignment when the league expanded to 32 teams, the Indianapolis Colts were division rivals with the Bills. The links between the two teams are even more pronounced now that Frank Reich is Colts head coach. Reich is famously known for leading the Bills back from a 35-3 deficit against the then Houston Oilers during a 1992 AFC Wild Card game. The 41-38 overtime victory remains the greatest comeback in NFL history.
But Reich won’t be on the Bills side when they visit Lucas Oil Stadium in Week Seven. His hope is that by this point in the season, Indy is in the thick of the AFC South discussion. If Andrew Luck is indeed fully healthy and can replicate the form he realized earlier in his career, it’s a very real possibility. His offensive line, long the team’s Achilles’ heel, received some welcome additions via the draft in Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith. The receiving corps is also much improved with rookies Deon Cain, Daurice Fountain, and pass-catching back Nyheim Hines giving Luck a bevy of new weapons to go along with T.Y. Hilton.
10. Week 15: vs Detroit Lions
This year’s clash with the Detroit Lions is just the 11th all-time meeting between these teams. The first, which took place in Buffalo on December 10, 1972, is rather notable. It ended in a 21-21 tie and was the final game played at War Memorial Stadium. The Bills moved into their current facility, then called Rich Stadium, beginning with the 1973 season.
Much like the Colts, Detroit has a new head coach with an established quarterback. Matt Patricia comes over after a successful stint as defensive coordinator of the Patriots. His starting signal-caller, Matthew Stafford, is less than a year removed from signing what was then the richest contract in NFL history. Since then, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins, and Matt Ryan have signed deals that pay them more on an annual basis.
Stafford obviously plays his home games indoors. That could make a game at New Era Field in December a formidable challenge, especially given the Bills’ talented secondary. Might the Lions, who haven’t had a 1,000+ yard rusher since Reggie Bush achieved the feat in 2013, lean on their run game in this one?
11. Week Five: vs Tennessee Titans
Have you noticed a trend with the Bills’ first few opponents here, including the Tennessee Titans? All three up to this point brought in new head coaches yet are fairly set at the quarterback position. In Tennessee’s case, they decided to part ways with Mike Mularkey despite winning a playoff game last year. In his place is Mike Vrabel who spent last season as defensive coordinator of the Houston Texans. Despite the coaching turnover, Marcus Mariota remains the go-to guy behind center for this franchise.
Of the first eight games of the Bills’ schedule, two are absolute must-wins. In addition to the home opener against the Los Angeles Chargers, this one ostensibly qualifies. It’s about the only way Buffalo can make it to 4-4 at the halfway point. And even then, getting there will necessitate at least two road wins or a home upset of the Patriots on Monday Night Football. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Bills against Tennessee will certainly be in for a challenge. In addition to the always dynamic Kevin Byard, the Titans added Malcolm Butler to their secondary in free agency.
12. Week 13: at Miami Dolphins
Last year’s clash at Hard Rock Stadium will forever live in Bills lore. The team’s 22-16 win on New Year’s Eve helped vanquish what had been the longest current playoff drought in all of North American pro sports. Though the Bills’ foray into the Sunshine State a week later didn’t go to plan, Sean McDermott and company are laying the foundation for bigger and better things.
For the second straight year, both regular season games involving the Miami Dolphins take place in the month of December. It’s an interesting schedule quirk in that it hadn’t happened prior to last season for two teams who’ve met every year since 1966. On paper, the Fins have all the makings of one of the NFL’s most improved teams. Ryan Tannehill returns behind center with a plethora of new offensive weapons. It includes free agency signing Danny Amendola and rookie tight end Mike Gesicki, one of the Combine’s biggest standouts. Another one of the Dolphins draft picks was arguably the steal of the first round in safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Miami’s personnel moves this off-season definitely makes this a more challenging road contest than last year.
13. Week Nine: vs Chicago Bears
Of the four non-AFC East teams on this list, all have new head coaches for the 2018 season. It’s no wonder, then, that those teams comprise the eight easiest games of the year. For the Chicago Bears, the John Fox era came to an end after three years with Matt Nagy now the head man at Halas Hall. Among the more innovative offensive minds in the NFL, Nagy seemed to get the most out of quarterback Alex Smith while coordinating the Kansas City Chiefs offense. And it’s that success that has Bears fans excited as Mitch Trubisky enters his sophomore NFL campaign.
Though not as pronounced as the drought Buffalo ended last season, Chicago is in the midst of their own prolonged stretch devoid of playoff football. It currently sits at seven years which is the third-longest drought in franchise history. Can they replicate what the Bills did under a first-year head coach last year? They quietly had a solid off-season, re-signing corners Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara while also bringing in Allen Robinson and Trey Burton to give Trubisky some pass-catching options.
The previous two games between the Bills and Bears both came down to the wire. Each was a three-point win with Chicago emerging victorious in 2010 and Buffalo doing the same four years later. That latter game in Week One of the 2014 season was highlighted by a dominant Fred Jackson running play in overtime in which he steamrolled Chris Conte to set up a game-winning field goal from Dan Carpenter.
14. Week 10: at New York Jets
It’s no surprise that the easiest road trip of 2018 comes at MetLife Stadium. Questions remain as to whether or not the New York Jets are anywhere near what’s required for playoff contention. But like the Bills with Josh Allen, Gang Green believes it has its quarterback of the future in Sam Darnold. And this Week 10 battle at the Meadowlands might see both these young signal callers garnering enough confidence from their coaches to be thrust into the spotlight.
Despite the low degree of difficulty associated with this game, it’s far from a gimme. Buffalo’s dropped the previous two in East Rutherford with neither game particularly competitive. Whoever starts for the Bills at quarterback will have to contend with an improved Jets secondary that includes Trumaine Johnson. The 28-year-old signed a five-year, $72.5 million extension with the Jets after playing the last two years under the franchise tag with the Los Angeles Rams.
Recent road struggles with the Jets notwithstanding, this certainly has the feel of a must-win. There’s no doubting it’s the least difficult road contest of 2018. And it’ll give the Bills momentum heading into their bye week.
15. Week 17: vs Miami Dolphins
Last year’s regular-season finale against the Dolphins certainly conjures up favorable memories for Bills fans. Will the 2018 meeting in Week 17 end in a similar result? It’s certainly going to be an uphill battle. To put it bluntly, the first half of the schedule does not set up favorably. Five of their first eight on the road combined with a home game against the Patriots to close it out is a prodigious challenge. But even in 2017, the Bills got some big wins against the odds. It included road upsets of the defending Super Bowl runners-up Atlanta Falcons and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Hopefully, the biggest position battle that sees its first game action on Thursday against the Carolina Panthers is resolved by Week 17. If it’s Allen who emerges this early in his career, that’s obviously a bonus. A.J. McCarron and Nathan Peterman will definitely have their say as part of the quarterback competition with Allen. But plenty of other rookies have the chance to become regular contributors immediately, including Tremaine Edmunds and Harrison Phillips on defense. Add in the run game with LeSean McCoy and a secondary looking to continue its ball-hawking ways and there are plenty of exciting storylines ready to play out between now and the final game of 2018.
16. Week 14: vs New York Jets
Winning this game is absolutely necessary if the Bills want to have a shot at the playoffs. The Jets have finished dead last in the AFC East in three of the last four seasons. But their 5-11 campaign in 2017 was a bit of a surprise to the upside considering many pundits had them possibly not winning a single game. As mentioned above, they added Trumaine Johnson to a secondary that already boasts two talented young safeties in Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye.
Those players will certainly test the mettle of the Bills receiving corps. Kelvin Benjamin comes into the preseason as the surefire number one. But the depth chart beyond him has its fair share of question marks. Zay Jones did not impress as a rookie and had a bizarre off-field incident in March. The team attempted to shore up the unit by bringing in Corey Coleman from the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. But considering the Browns drafted him 15th overall in 2016, his career stats of 718 receiving yards and five touchdowns come across as underwhelming.
When these two teams duel at New Era Field in early December, a key battle to watch will be how Buffalo’s wide receivers are able to separate against the Jets’ playmakers in the secondary. All three of the Bills quarterbacks are lacking in experience. As a result, their pass-catchers’ ability to run clean routes, create space and find gaps in zone coverage will make their job a lot easier. And it could help facilitate what will likely be a much-needed win given the structure of the Bills 2018 schedule.
Be sure to check out the eight hardest games on the 2018 Buffalo Bills schedule.
