Week three of the 2017 season sees the Buffalo Bills return home for a matchup with the Denver Broncos. In 36 all-time regular season meetings, the Bills actually own a 19-16-1 record. It includes a 40-14 win over the Broncos the last time these two faced off in Buffalo on December 24, 2011.
The Broncos come into Sunday’s matchup at New Era Field riding a wave of momentum. Last week, they laid a 42-17 beatdown on the Dallas Cowboys, a game in which they held 2016 rushing champion Ezekiel Elliott to eight yards on nine carries. Meanwhile, despite a stout effort on defense, a completely ineffectual showing on the other side of the ball condemned Buffalo to a 9-3 loss against the Carolina Panthers.
When these two charter members of the old AFL do battle on Sunday, what can fans expect? What needs to transpire in order for the Bills to defend home turf and move to 2-1 on the young season?
Week Three Buffalo Bills Keys to Victory
Send Trevor Siemian Crashing Back Down to Earth
When Broncos head coach Vance Joseph named Trevor Siemian the team’s starting quarterback in the preseason over Paxton Lynch, questions abounded. Could he build off of last year’s campaign where he went 8-6 in 14 starts despite his team missing the playoffs? Just two games into 2017 and the answer appears to be yes.
The 2015 seventh round pick out of Northwestern is among the more impressive quarterbacks in the league thus far. His 106.9 quarterback rating is currently seventh among NFL signal callers and has him above such venerated names as Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger. In week two, Siemian ran roughshod over the Cowboys secondary, completing 69 percent of his passes and tying his career high with four touchdown throws.
https://twitter.com/MySportsUpdate/status/909516431976468480
Siemian is clearly thriving under new offensive coordinator Mike McCoy. He’s one of two NFL quarterbacks (along with Matthew Stafford) to throw for six touchdown passes in 2017. But he may be in for a challenge on Sunday against a Bills defense that’s excelled in shutting down opposing quarterbacks. That side of the football certainly can’t be culpable in Buffalo’s losing effort last week in Carolina. They limited 2015 MVP Cam Newton to a 51.6 total QBR while sacking him six times.
Through two games, opposing quarterbacks have the third worst quarterback rating in the league against the Bills defense. The secondary consists of Jordan Poyer who currently boasts the highest grade from Pro Football Focus among safeties. And no rookie cornerback in the league has a higher rating from PFF than Tre’Davious White. They’re also one of just two NFL teams who have yet to concede a passing touchdown.
All of this points to the Bills having the tools necessary to limit Siemian’s effectiveness in the passing game.
Somehow, Someway Try to Contain Broncos Perimeter Pressure
It’s pretty much common knowledge at this point that the Broncos pass rush is as fearsome as it gets. Yes, Von Miller gets a great deal of the accolades and rightfully so considering he’s currently Pro Football Focus’ highest rated edge defender. But players such as Shaquil Barrett, Brandon Marshall, and Derek Wolfe also comprise a loaded Broncos front seven.
These edge defenders made their presence felt in Week 2 pic.twitter.com/6XyBlTTqYq
— PFF (@PFF) September 22, 2017
What truly distinguishes this unit is its ability to generate pressure on the perimeter. This disrupts opposing offenses twofold in that it not only flusters their passing rhythm but also limits their effectiveness at running the football. With respect to the ground game, constant pressure emanating from the edge makes it immensely difficult to establish any consistent zone running game outside the tackles.
That could become a major issue on Sunday. With regular starting left tackle Cordy Glenn ruled out due to an ankle injury, it means rookie Dion Dawkins will make his first start. On the opposite side of the line will be Jordan Mills who dealt with his fair share of struggles containing 37-year-old veteran Julius Peppers last week. Simply put, LeSean McCoy will have his work cut out for him bouncing back from a game in which he rushed for a paltry nine yards on 12 carries.
Tyrod Taylor NEEDS to Get the Ball Out Quicker
Losing a game in which you held the opponent to nine points elicits huge questions regarding the offense. At the forefront of that discussion is quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who managed 125 yards passing and a minuscule five yards per completion against Carolina. Two games into the season and already Bills fans have legitimate qualms over the man behind center.
It’s led to McCoy defending Taylor in comments to the media this week.
“Tyrod’s a hell of a player,” McCoy emphasized. “Without him, we would’ve had no shot last week.”
There’s no doubt that Taylor made some big time throws against Carolina. That was especially the case late in the game as Buffalo attempted to mount a comeback. But for the most part, his tentativeness throwing the football downfield continues to stymie the Bills offense. Among quarterbacks with at least 14 attempts, only 11 average fewer than Taylor’s 6.59 yards per completion.
A perfect example is the clip contained in the following tweet in which Taylor elects to use his legs instead of his arm. Though it resulted in a 12-yard gain, there were options had he decided to pass the ball. And even on second and 27, it might have resulted in a first down.
2nd and 27. Same play they ran on 3rd and 7 on the previous drive and later in the game. pic.twitter.com/CgOrZuKHs4
— Cover 1 (@Cover1) September 18, 2017
On this play, the Bills send all four receivers on inside slant routes. The Panthers are in a cover 4 shell which leaves a great deal of space underneath. Taylor has a particularly attractive option out left on the perimeter which could have resulted in a boatload of yards after the catch. But his eyes initially key the other way. With the pocket quickly collapsing, he abandons a pass altogether and instead scrambles for a modest gain.
What this indicates is Taylor not diagnosing potential mismatches pre-snap. Had he done so, a huge gain was there for the taking. Against a Broncos team with a dominant pass rush and two elite cover corners in Aqib Talib and Chris Harris, Jr., Taylor will need to exhibit better decision-making in the pass game.
