Voices of dissension have begun to suggest that Amari Cooper is at a crossroads. Is he a dominant player who can take over games? Or is he nothing more than a solid number two behind Michael Crabtree? Well, wonder no more, because Amari Cooper is right on track to be elite in 2017.
Amari Cooper Is Right On Track
His Physical Tools
Cooper, at 6’1” and 210lbs, isn’t a physical freak in the same way as someone like recent camp guest Calvin Johnson. But no-one else is like Megatron, and indeed great receivers don’t need to be. Dez Bryant is 6’2” and 220lbs. Antonio Brown is just 5’10” and 199lbs. Interestingly, Cooper ran the 40 yard dash quicker than either of those players. His physical tools are just fine.
What’s more, Cooper possesses the footwork, agility and leaping ability to make catches other players just can’t make. Remember this catch against the Falcons? Cooper jumped a fraction too early and, watching it live, the immediate sense was that the ball would drift over the top. Too high. 4th down. But Cooper found a way to just hang there, to levitate like a silver and black street magician, and make the catch. Really, his physical tools are just fine.
A Statistical Drop Off
People often say that Cooper disappears towards the end of a season. But is it true? In 2016, for the final four games of the season Cooper averaged 3.75 catches and just 43.5 yards per game. In the first 12 games he averaged 5.66 catches and 81.75 yards per game. Statistically, that is a big drop off. Should we be worried, or might there be extenuating circumstances.
Firstly of course one of those games – the final one against Denver – was without Derek Carr. Equally a rainy Kansas City is a difficult place to play and there’s no shame in a second year player strugging there. In fact three of the final four games were away from home.
Most interestingly though, Cooper’s production begins to tail off from week 12. Against Carolina he found just 22 yards from four catches. That’s also the game that Carr broke his pinkie finger. Could the necessary adjustments that Carr then needed to make have led to Cooper receiving less targets?
Over the first 11 games, Cooper was targeted 9.1 times a game on average. For the last 5 regular season games – with Carr playing with a broken finger or not at all – Cooper was targeted an average of just 6.2 times a game. That’s almost a third less targets. Of course, perhaps Cooper just wasn’t getting open. But perhaps Carr, playing with a damaged finger, was just taking less risks with throws. Perhaps Carr’s deep ball was compromised by the injury. We’ll never know, but it’s important to understand a statistical drop-off isn’t the fault of the individual player alone.
Areas To Improve
Of course players always have areas of their game that need improvement. Cooper has certainly been plagued by drops, particularly in his rookie season. In 2015, only Mike Evens dropped more passes than Cooper. But as you can see from the 2016 stats, Cooper cleared his game up in this regard, dropping just three passes. He’s already demonstrated a level of improvement here.
One area that Cooper does need to improve upon is getting into the endzone. Last year, Jordy Nelson led the league in receiving touchdowns with 14. Cooper had 5. The year before, Doug Baldwin led the leage, again with 14. Cooper had 6.
One of the reasons for this is the coaches don’t seem to use Cooper as a red zone weapon, prefering to target Michael Crabtree with back-shoulder fades. If you remember the Shade Of Blue catch against the Chargers, then you’ll know why that is. Still Cooper can improve here.
Everything gets harder in the red zone. The field is bunched up, and receivers have less room to get open. Perhaps Cooper’s crisp route running doesn’t give him the same advantage when the field is only 10 or 20 yards deep, and the safeties are pushed up. Whatever the reason, he needs to get better. And I think he will.
A Culture of Constant Improvement
It’s been a staple of this Raider team that their best players continue to grow and get better. The work ethic and dedication to the craft that is part of Jack Del Rio’s culture means these players continue to improve. And that, more than anything else, is where there is no reason to worry. Remember when Derek Carr was just a promising quarterback with a good rookie season? Remember when the knock on Khalil Mack was that he just didn’t get enough sacks? It’s unrealistic to expect every rookie to light it up in year one. What you need is a set of coaches who can teach and a culture that encourages the player to learn.
For those reasons, I feel confident in saying that Amari Cooper is on the right track. 2017 will see a Pro Bowl performance from the Alabama stand out, and maybe, just maybe, we’ll see Cooper and Carr lifting the Lombardi itself, hanging high in the cold Minneapolis night air.
