In the 2015 NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers made a surprise pick. They selected punter Bradley Pinion in the fifth round from Clemson. At the time, the 49ers had stalwart Andy Lee. This made the pick truly perplexing. Shortly after that selection, Lee was traded, and Pinion became the full time punter. Pinion has had a relatively quiet and short career so far. However, 2017 could be the year Pinion becomes as much of a household name as a punter can become. The stars have aligned for Pinion to have a breakout campaign.
Bradley Pinion Will Break Out for the San Francisco 49ers
Learning Curve
Not every punter is going to be Shane Lechler and dominate the position in their first year onward. There is a learning curve when it comes to punters. Punters that are considered elite today usually took two to three years to hit their stride. The fact that Pinon has not broken out yet should not be surprising.
The best parallel to Pinion’s future career could end up being the man he replaced. Andy Lee is considered by many to be the best punter in 49ers history. Lee was drafted in the sixth round of the 2004 NFL draft. It took three years for Lee to fully adjust to the league and the wind of Candlestick Park. His yards per punt were sub 45.0 before leaping that hurdle in his fourth year. Since then, he has been of best punters in the NFL, earning three Pro Bowl selections.
Other interesting comparisons are Johnny Hekker of the Los Angeles Rams, and Pat McAfee, formerly of the Indianapolis Colts. Both of these punters had incredible years in 2016. Hekker earned All-Pro honors, and McAfee was selected to the Pro Bowl. These two, like Lee, took a couple years to adjust to the NFL. McAfee took two years for his yards per punt average to jump, and has been among the league leaders since.
Hekker’s yards per punt average has always been great, but where he has shown the most improvement is in his amount of punts pinned within the 20 yard line. Hekker was unspectacular in this stat for the first two years of his career. Then, he broke out. Hekker broke the record with 51 punts inside the 20 during the 2016 season. Just because other punters have had overcome a learning curve does not necessarily mean Pinion will, but there is a precedent.
Pinpoint Punts
Upon first glance, Pinion’s punting stats appear rather average. He led the league in punts, and was in the top ten in punts pinned within the 20-yard line. What stands out, however, is his yards per punt average. He finished 26th among all qualified punters with an average of 44. He may develop more consistency to rise in the ranks. As of right now, Pinion is not the punter who will boom kicks down the field on a regular basis.
Where Pinion excels is in the accuracy of his punts. Pinion punted the ball exactly 100 times in 2016. 32 of those came from within 60 yards of the end zone (49ers 40 yard line). Pinion succeeded in placing the punt within the 20 yard line 27 times out of these punts, with only three touchbacks. His most impressive display of precision came against the Bears in snowy Chicago. Punting from the Bears 31 yard line with very little room to work with, he managed to pin the Bears at the five-yard line. These deadly accurate punts are his specialty. Pinion can be a dangerous weapon in the field position game, but he needs to be punting from the fight spot.
The Kyle Shanahan Effect
In order to best capitalize on Pinion’s strength of accurate punts, the 49ers must put him in a better position to punt. The abysmal 2016 49ers offense was not conducive for precision punting. There are reasons to believe, however, that the 2017 offense will have more success moving the ball.
According to Pro Football focus, the 49ers were the second worst team in yards per drive last year. This doesn’t tell the whole story though. One should examine the average yards per drive of plays that did not result in a touchdown. Doing so gives a better idea of where drives stop. Not coincidentally, the 49ers were dead last in this statistic with an average of 14.1 yards per drive.
The 49ers will increase that average in 2017 due to their new head coach Kyle Shanahan. Under Shanahan, offenses have excelled. The 2016 Atlanta Falcons rode their offense to Super Bowl berth. In 2016, the Falcons were in the top five in the league in average yards per drive on non-touchdowns. The Atlanta Falcons have better offensive personal, so this is not surprising.
A better comparison is the 2014 Cleveland Browns, with whom Shanahan served one year as offensive coordinator. With the same coach, the same quarterback in Brian Hoyer, and similar personal, the 2014 Browns beat the 2016 49ers total by five yards. It should also be no coincidence that the punter for the Browns that year, Spencer Lanning, had the best year of his short career. Moving the ball farther on offense will be the best way to capitalize on Pinion’s precision kicking.
Conclusion
Having an excellent punter does not impact the game the way an excellent quarterback would. Despite this, having a top tier punter can still contribute significantly. A well-placed punt can help shift all momentum. There are many reasons to believe Pinion will enjoy much success in 2017. With the offense taking steps forward, Pinion will have more opportunities to show off his pinpoint precision. After a couple years, Pinion should be fully adjusted to the NFL. Pinion had big shoes to fill when he took over for Andy Lee. If Pinion takes the next step, the 49ers will be in line for another decade of punting excellence.
