In an odd scheduling anomaly, the Green Bay Packers faced the exact same teams in Weeks Two through Eight of the regular season that they face in the six weeks going through the NFC Championship Game. The Packers have, therefore, had some statistical reference for the Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, New York Giants in terms of growth from one game to the next. Now, three of these opponents are divisional foes so this is to be expected. Two other opponents were NFC East interdivisional games. The sixth game will be the rematch in Atlanta this weekend.
Green Bay Packers Adjust as Well as Anyone
Overall Packers Adjustments
The first view of any change in performance starts with the wins and losses, but the next step has to be Aaron Rodgers. The first time through these opponents, the Packers were 3-3 with losses to Minnesota, Dallas and Atlanta. In the second time through, Green Bay is 5-0 so far. Also impressive is the first time through saw the Packers play four of those six games at home. In the second go around, Green Bay was the visitor in three of the five games (and will be on the road again this week).
Critical plays hurt the Packers greatly through the first run. The Packers committed ten turnovers in those first six games. In the run the Packers are currently on, they only have one turnover. Furthermore, the Packers managed to reduce the number of penalties against each opponent with the exception of Detroit. There is quite a bit of fine tuning going on. Having a second chance with the same team, same personnel, same coaching staff, gives a chance to make serious changes.
One major difference is also the use of Ty Montgomery. Montgomery stepped in for the injured Eddie Lacy when Lacy was hurt in the first Cowboys game. Lacy never came back and Montgomery took the snaps at running back. This was a gradual change and Montgomery only saw more than seven carries before the Week 14 matchup with the Seattle Seahawks. Montgomery creates several matchup problems that the Packers were not able to exploit before. Looking forward, it bears pointing out Montgomery was injured and did not play against Atlanta in Week Eight.
Aaron Rodgers Adjustments
Probably the single greatest growth has been the difference in the numbers of MVP-candidate Aaron Rodgers. The first time through the last five teams the Packers have faced, Rodgers had poor numbers by his standards. Rodgers attempted 203 passes in those five games and completed 128 of them (63.1%). He turned those completions into 1,297 yards, or 259.4 yards per game. Additionally, he had 11 touchdowns and four interceptions in this span. All of this combines to create a quarterback rating of just 91.1.
Looking at the last five games now, Rodgers has been amazing. In these games, Rodgers has attempted 191 passes and completed 127 of them (66.5%). These passes gained 1,616 yards, an average of 323.2 yards per game. The final tally left Rodgers with 14 touchdowns in this run to just one interception. That equates to a 114.9 quarterback rating. In a fun statistical twist, Chicago was the only team to give up 300+ yards to Rodgers the first time through and they were the only team to not surrender 300 yards on the second time through.
Defensive Adjustments
The first blush look tells you that the Packers are doing far worse on Defense. Green Bay is giving up an average of 419.4 yards per game in this current stretch. On top of this, they have given up an average of four points more per game. This needs to be viewed in light of the Packers increased offensive output in rematches. While the Packers are giving up four points more per game, they are scoring 11.6 points more per game.
In terms of yards, the Packers are giving up 112 yards more per game than the first time through. Still, 85% of this difference is from the increased passing yards. As the Packers outscore their opponents in this stretch, the opponents’ passing yards have increased by just over 94 yards per game. Teams are getting just under 18 yards better in rushing on the rematch.
The key statistic for the defense, in light of this context, is the turnover difference. The Packers only forced seven turnovers in the first five games. In the rematches, the Packers have taken the ball from their opponents ten times.
In the end, the Falcons-Packers tilt in Week Eight was a difficult affair where the Falcons pushed out a last second touchdown to secure a one point win. Atlanta gave up 32 points to a team coming off a stretch of 22.6 points per game. Now that Green Bay is averaging 34.2 points per game against the same teams, Atlanta must contend with this adjusted team. It also bears pointing out that Ty Montgomery, Randall Cobb, Clay Matthews, Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins all missed the last match up.
Rodgers completed 28 of 38 for 246 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions against Atlanta in Week Eight. This could be an amazing explosion if he improves again.
