Mike Babcock has recently received a lot of criticism. These criticisms stem from the Leafs failing to take the next steps in their journey to becoming a champion. Some of it has been warranted, while some of it holds less legitimacy.
One thing is for sure: The Leafs should be better than a .500 hockey team since the turn of the calendar year. Is Babcock holding this team back?
Evaluating Mike Babcock’s body of work
When Mike Babcock was hired as head coach of the Toronto Maple Leafs, he promised pain. It wasn’t long before things started to change. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner replaced Mark Arcobello and Brad Boyes. The team started winning games, and began their ascent from the Eastern Conference basement. It looked like the pain may not last long.
Fast forward four seasons, the honeymoon phase is long gone. This October marks the fifth season of the Babcock era. With his eight-year watershed contract semi-complete, it’s time to look back and reflect on Mike Babcock’s body of work thus far.
Mike Babcock: The Good – The 2016-17 season
In his first two seasons in Toronto, Babcock improved both CF% and xGF% to above 50% for the first time since 2010. This was partly due to better personnel, but the coach deserves a lot of credit for this. He implemented a system that utilized the stretch pass, which worked well with Toronto’s speedy forwards, and allowed the team to spread the ice out. The coach played his top three lines a near equivalent amount of ice time, which worked well with Toronto’s balanced roster. The average TOI between his first and ninth most utilized forward in 2016-17 differed by less than two minutes. Toronto surprised everyone and made the playoffs. Mike Babcock was nominated for the Jack Adam’s Trophy that season.
Mike Babcock: The Bad – The 2017-18 season
The Leafs surprised many in the 2016-17 season by making the playoffs. They turned more heads by being the Presidents Trophy winner in a tightly contested six games. The following season saw a 10-point improvement in the standings. Despite the upward projection, Leaf fans began to fret about some of the more worrisome developments beginning to emerge.
The team led the league in expected goals for in 2017-18 but were 11th in xGf%. These numbers were indicative of a high event team, who traded chances with their opponents. The Leafs relied on the stretch pass to break the puck out, which allowed them to generate odd-man rushes and breakaways. Toronto exploited the bottom feeders of the Atlantic, such as Ottawa and Detroit with their run-and-gun attack. Against tougher matchups, they didn’t fare as well.
Sacrificing puck possession and clean zone exits in the name of high-quality scoring chances is a dangerous game. The leafs finished that season in the bottom eight for CA/60 and xGA/60. Starting goalie Frederik Andersen faced a league-leading 2,211 shots that season, while no other goalie faced 2,100.
Mike Babcock: The Bad: The 2018 Playoffs
Once the playoffs hit, the Leafs lost a seven-game series to the Boston Bruins. That series had no business going seven games, and the truth became impossible to hide from. The 2018 Maple Leafs controlled the puck at the same rate as the Randy Carlyle Leafs, controlling only 46.75% of shot attempts during that series. While the Leafs led the league in expected goals for, the Bruins led the league in expected goals against.
The Bruins used their puck possession and physical style to keep the Leafs pinned in their zone, limiting their ability to counter-attack off the rush. Babcock couldn’t adjust all series long, and if it wasn’t for Andersen’s heroics, the Leafs probably would have lost that series in five. It was time for Babcock to rethink his strategy.
Mike Babcock: The Good: The 2018-19 season
Babcock improved the Leafs puck possession game in 2019. Despite a five-point drop in the standings, the Maple Leafs controlled possession 51.7% of the time, a decent improvement from the year before. Babcock was focusing on a more sustainable way of clearing the zone. Toronto also cut down its expected goals/60 from 3.09 to 2.9, and their xGF+/- increased by over 10 goals year to year. This showed a larger spread between the amount of quality chances the Leafs created compared to the ones they gave up.
In the 2019 playoffs, the Leafs once again took on the Bruins. This time, Toronto finished with an edge in CF% and xG%. The eye test matched the numbers, as Toronto had the puck much more in 2019. For all of his critics about being stubborn, Babcock did adapt after the 2018 playoffs.
Mike Babcock: The Ugly
Babcock’s time in Toronto has served some juicy, yet distracting headlines. After Toronto’s playoffs ended in 2018, Babcock flew down to Arizona to meet with cornerstone Auston Matthews. According to reports, that meeting did not go well. It is speculated that a big talking point during those meetings was ice time. Matthews has averaged just over 18 minutes of ice time throughout his young career. That’s not a lot of playing time for your franchise player.
After Toronto’s playoffs ended in 2019, Babcock met with the media to discuss the failed season. The head coach rubbed Leafs Nation the wrong way when he deflected blame off of himself for the Leafs failed season. A few days later, GM Kyle Dubas held a press conference of his own. The GM made a calculated decision to not immediately back his head coach, leaving Babcock’s job security an open debate. There have been several questions about the professional dynamic between Dubas and Babcock. Does the veteran head coach respect his boss, who happens to be 23 years younger than him?
Summary
Mike Babcock has had his ups and downs in his stint behind the Leafs’ bench. He has changed his tactics and improved the Leafs’ puck possession game a great deal. By the time the 2019 playoffs rolled around, the Leafs were beating the Bruins at their own game. A solid argument could be made that the Leafs were the better team in that series.
However, the results have yet to emerge. Babcock has been resistant to change in certain aspects that affect his team’s performance. The backup goalie still starts the second half of a back-to-back. Load management has become over empathized for every star player, except the starting goalie. His resistance to change on these decisions have frustrated many fans.
Final Grade
It is tough to grade a head coach based on the performance of his players. However Babcock was brought to turn Toronto around and to coach the team to glory. So far, he has yet to win a playoff round. Because of this, Babcock gets a B- for his first four years. However, there is plenty of time for this team to make a run. If Babcock is still around when his eight-year contract expires, there is a good chance he has changed the narrative of the organization… and himself.
Main Photo:
