The Carolina Hurricanes start to the 2024-25 season was filled with many questions. How would they handle the talent departure? What would the centre depth look like? Can Pyotr Kochetkov become the starting goalie? These are just a few questions that filled the air of the Hurricanes proverbial waiting room. But there was another big one. Following an offseason that seemed like Martin Necas would be on his way out too, the Hurricanes re-signed him for two years. A bridge deal filled with many “prove it” questions. Necas reportedly wanted more ice time and power play time, while the Hurricanes wanted Necas to show that he deserved it. We previously took a look at how this was such a big year for Necas. Now early into the season, Necas has so far shown that he is worth his contract, and then some. But a deeper dive sees some interesting trends for Martin Necas’s start thus far.
Martin Necas Starting on a Heater
To get started, Necas is leading the Hurricanes in points with 20. He is also tied with Jack Roslovic for the lead in goals with seven. His seven goals include five at even strength and two on the power play. His points are split 12 and eight, respectively, as well. The reality is, he’s making things happen offensively in many situations. To give it some perspective, his 20 points have him tied with Mark Stone for sixth in the league. More notably, his points per game of 1.82 is third in the league. He only trails Nathan MacKinnon in that category. This outpaces many notable names like Artemi Panarin and Connor McDavid. Lastly, his three game-winning goals is tied for the league lead.
It’s no secret that Necas’s production is a big reason that Carolina is off to a 9-2-0 start. Not only is he putting up points and earned the NHL’s second star or the week, he is scoring in all sorts of ways and scenarios too. His shooting has been accurate and lethal but he has also come through clutch with some more gritty goals. Most recently, his goal against the Philadelphia Flyers with around thirty seconds left in the game turned what was otherwise a poor team performance into a win.
MARTIN NECAS GIVES THE CANES THE LEAD WITH 30 SECONDS LEFT pic.twitter.com/GU9D168vmY
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) November 6, 2024
But What’s Going On Deeper?
To dig a little deeper to try to explain why Martin Necas is starting so hot, there are a few notable items to explore. And no this does not include Necas losing a bet and dying his hair blonde before the season.
It is no secret at all that Carolina is a heavy possession and chance generating team that explodes across essentially all advanced analytical stats. At 5v5 they lead the league in expected goals percentage, Corsi and Fenwick. But without converting those chances into goals, they are little more than empty accolades. But this has to mean that a player producing like Necas on a team with such analytics must be tops in these categories, right? Not so fast.
Not So Expected
The truth is that Necas is not actually leading when it comes to these stats. In expected goals for and expected goals for per 60 minutes at 5v5, Necas sits near the middle of the roster with a 2.2 and 0.9 respectively. It’s no different with shots on goal. And actually for Corsi, Fenwick, and expected goals percentage, Necas sits at the bottom of the team. This also includes the highest expected goals against per 60 minutes on the team.
But Actually
So Necas isn’t one of the top performers in the usual Hurricanes advanced stats. No, but he is leading the team when it comes to being opportunistic and actual results. His five goals outpaces his 2.2 expected. This leaves him with a 2.8 goals above expected which leads the team in that category (tied with Roslovic).
Meanwhile, his goals per 60 minutes of 2.06 outpaces his 0.9 expected goals per 60 minutes and his 4.13 points per 60 minutes leads the team. Necas is also shooting at a pretty remarkable 33.3%. On the power play, his expected stats versus actual come in much closer, but he still outpaces his expected goals by his actual (1.5 compared to 2). One other interesting stat is that Necas leads the team at 5v5 in percentage of starts on the fly at 66.7%, but is near the bottom at starts in the offensive, neutral and defensive zone.
The Where
One other item worth looking at is where Necas goals and shots are coming from. For all of his goals scored, the average distance is 24.4 feet from the net. Most come from pretty close to the net. All of his goals have come from below the tops of the circles. Most of his goals and shots on goal have been heavily weighted from the left side of the ice as well.
Putting it All Together to Get the Why
By looking at all of these statistics, and analyzing Martin Necas’s start so far, we can make a case for why he has been producing so much.
Opportunity Strikes
For starters, Necas has been crazy opportunistic. Instead of generating the most chances on the team, he seems to be more selective on his shooting. His skating ability allows him to work the puck around the offensive zone to get openings for shots he likes, which explains the shot locations mentioned above. But it also opens the ice for others around him, allowing him to dish the puck just as much as he shoots. Getting chances on a heavily utilized power play unit one doesn’t hurt his ability to shoot more from the left side of the zone either. In addition, he seems to be going harder to the net. This was seen in his backdoor goal against the Edmonton Oilers late in the game below. He dishes the puck with a heads up play and instantly drives the net for the return back door pass.
Carolina goal!
Scored by Martin Necas with 06:31 remaining in the 3rd period.
Assisted by Eric Robinson and Jesperi Kotkaniemi.
Edmonton: 2
Carolina: 2#CARvsEDM #LetsGoOilers #RaiseUp pic.twitter.com/Hw5IJjOZJT— NHL Goals (@nhl_goal_bot) October 23, 2024
Utilization
He also thrives off the rush given his high pace of play and is one of the few Hurricanes players who seems to prefer to play a more creative style of game versus a simple dump and chase one. Some of the reason that most of his starts are on the fly may be intentional by the coaching staff. Or maybe not. But either way, since Necas is taking most of his starts on the fly, he is hitting the ice with speed. Which, hitting the hole with his feet moving, is the name of the game for him. This may not be the biggest reason for his offensive outburst, but it seems to be a factor.
Playing His Style Within the System
Lastly, talking about utilization, his high expected goals against mixed with his starts above may indicate that Necas has been, and maybe has been allowed, to focus more on the offensive side of the ice. We know, we know, this sounds crazy on a Rod Brind’Amour coached team, but everything is relative. This doesn’t mean Necas has been a defensive liability. But it seems to say that he has been able to selectively focus on generating offence. Fortunately, when, where, and how he likes to focus on putting biscuit into basket. He could not get away with ignoring the system, but sometimes you need that X-Factor to run a little wild and cause some disruption from the norm.
Maybe it’s the Linemates He Met Along the Way
One last simple factor contributing to Necas’s success is the fact that the players around him are also producing. When he dishes the puck, players are getting the puck in the net. But given Necas’s opportunistic skating and playmaking discussed above, anyone could easily argue he has been as helpful to those around him as they have to him.
The reality is that there are probably too many factors contributing to Martin Necas’s hot start to count. Is it some luck? Probably. His shooting percentage and point production will likely come back down to earth. But it’s also very possible that he has in fact taken a big step forward this offseason. With a new deal in place, maybe there is less distraction. And maybe the current team has some better mojo that is giving Necas the support and freedom to do what he does best…..generate offence.
Main Photo Credit: James Guillory – Imagn Images
