The Toronto Maple Leafs do have some reasons to believe that this season will be different. One of the main contributors to making this ideology reality, is Morgan Rielly and his ability to put up huge stats. Furthermore, besides the obvious benefit to the team, Rielly has a great deal to benefit personally from a big season in The Six. The Leafs organization made some of the right steps in the offseason, and it will be interesting to see if and when the Leafs organization can come through with favourable results on the ice. However, right now, as they sit at 4-4-1, in fact tied with the Boston Bruins in the Atlantic Division standings, the organization and its fanbase are patiently waiting for both Rielly and the team to takeoff in 2024-25.
Morgan Rielly of the Leafs and Analysis of his Stats
Just how can we claim these ideas on how impactful Rielly will be on the Leafs outcome. The big difference this year for the Leafs was supposed to be the addition of Chris Tanev. This would give Rielly a true, number one, right-side partner. That is something he hasn’t had much throughout his career. T.J. Brodie had been a regular partner for Rielly over the past couple seasons. Before that, it was Ron Hainsey who teamed up with Rielly regularly. Especially at the points of their respective careers that Rielly was paired with them, neither would be considered elite, top-pair defencemen. The distinction as a top-flite defender is something that Rielly tries his hardest to put himself in the conversation as being.
This lack of a top-pair calibre partner is supported by the stats. For example, in 2017-18, when Rielly and Hainsey played over 1020 minutes together, their xGoals% was a disappointing 49.3. That is a number severely lacking for a so-called, top defence pair. For the Brodie and Rielly pairing, in 2020-21, they did play a lot together and had modest success. In nearly 830 minutes on ice as a partnership, they had an xGoals% of 55.4. However, that number slipped the following season to 51.5, likely due to Brodie’s drop in play.
The Personal Stats Show his Play Isn’t the Issue
It is interesting, and partly fueled by his work on the top power play unit over the years, but Morgan Rielly’s stats usually end up all right, despite the lack of quality of a partner. Rielly’s career best 72-point season came in 2018-19. Including that year, and the other two seasons that he played a full season and averaged over 23 minutes per game, Rielly posted more than 50 assists in each of those three seasons. Talk about elite and consistent.
Now in 2024-25, head coach Craig Berube has really started experimenting with the defensive alignment of his players. Saturday night in Boston for an example, Philippe Myers made his season debut. Moreover, he shifted Rielly back to the top power play unit. Even though it didn’t get Rielly going on the power play, it probably benefited his overall offensive game. That was evidenced when he slapped home a one-timer, on a feed from Mitch Marner to, at the time, make the score 2-1. But maybe that’s the type of thing to get Rielly going. As a note, that was Morgan Rielly’s 800th career NHL game.
Berube was changing up the defence pairings overall, as Rielly saw time with Oliver Ekman-Larsson. That is opposed to playing with Chris Tanev on that backend. The Tanev and Rielly pairing has been very good analytically. However, that has not, as of yet, translated to positive results. The pairing has an xGoals% of 55.7, but have actually been outscored 4-3. And perhaps that is why we preach patience. Berube wants to get three regular pairs that he can rely on the most. It can be tricky with all the turnover on the backend. Both Tanev and Ekman-Larsson only joined the Leafs this year. Additionally, Simon Benoit only joined the club last year. Finally, Jake McCabe came over around the 2023 NHL Trade Deadline. So, Leaf fans and Berube need to be patient as the pairings’ chemistry develop naturally.
Finding What Works, Whatever That Is
The tough part about this for Rielly, is what has been a common theme throughout his career. Given Rielly’s excellent reliability, consistency, and offensive abilities, he has been sacrificed to play with lesser quality partners. If, for instance, Berube is seeing success in a different partnership, like a McCabe-Tanev pairing that has played together 30 minutes already this season, it might be at Rielly’s expense of playing with the favoured Tanev. In any case, it will continue to be a work-in-progress. Leaf fans and Berube need to be patient, and unfortunately, it may end up at Rielly’s expense, but if its good for the team, it is something he will be more than willing to do.
The other side of this is somewhat selfishness. Rielly wants to have a big season to guarantee his inclusion on Team Canada’s left side of their defence. The tournament in February 2025, the 4 Nations Face-Off will be a difficult team to make for Canadians. Canada is loaded with talent at every position. Names like Josh Morrissey, Devon Toews, and Shea Theodore will make sure Rielly’s inclusion on the squad is no cake walk.
Main Photo Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
