The Ottawa Senators Superstar Tim Stutzle 2024-25 Point Projections

The time has come to provide this year’s version of the ultimate in predictions for fans of the Ottawa Senators. Just how many points will Tim Stutzle record in the 2024-25 campaign? Will he be able to bounce back after a difficult 2023-24 season and regain his form from the year prior? So many unanswered questions coming into the Sens season. Moreover, here at Last Word on Hockey we will provide you with the information that you will need to predict Tim Stutzle’s point projections.

A Player Analysis on Expected Stats for Claude Giroux in 2024-25

Ottawa Senators Point Projections for the Upcoming 24-25 Campaign

To truly get a judge of what Tim Stutzle can achieve, we need to journey to the 2022-23 campaign. Moreover, it is the consensus among the Sens community that Stutzle suffered through a wrist-injury in 2023-24 that impacted his shot. That is an underrated attribute in Stutzle’s skillset, perhaps for the casual onlooker. It’s his shot. When you score on 17.1% of your 228 shots in a season you must know there is an element of dominance.

Stutzle has a fast, quick, and accurate shot, and perhaps the main shortfalls include not shooting more and being a centre (opposed to winger to set up for the one-timer release more regularly). Either way, Stutzle’s game isn’t imperative in his goal scoring, just more so that he can do it all. Stutzle could be looked at as a five-tool player, despite his smaller stature, he is still known for being strong on the puck. Part of this is his speed that he can beat players to the puck and then prepare for the physicality.

Stutzle is a Complete Player and Looking to Prove That

One aspect about Stutzle’s offensive game, and why it may be difficult to have chemistry with him is an element of unpredictability. Stutzle is very talented and can make a quick-deke, and explosive net-drive at any moment. As beneficial as this may seem, he could even catch his own teammates unexpecting. Thus making it difficult to be able to be an efficient scorer with Stutzle on your line. Or at least, so far through Stutzle’s career of altering linemates.

In 2023-24, Tim Stutzle was a part of the Senators most often utilized forward line. With 305 minutes on ice together, he skated with Claude Giroux and Mathieu Joseph. They had an expected goals of 54 xGoals%. However, and what points to Stutzle’s down year from the previous season’s totals, was their inefficiency. As a line, they only put up an actual goal rate of 45.9%. Perhaps also incentive for moving on from Joseph this offseason. Moreover, if we look back on 2022-23, Stutzle was again a member of the team’s most utilized forward line. This time joining Giroux, was none other than their captain (since 2021), Brady Tkachuk. They were in extremely effective line, with an actual goal rate of 58.8%. Therefore, a large factor for Tim Stutzle’s point projections, besides the obvious one of line chemistry, would be deployment.

Sometimes It’s the Little Things

The idea with putting Joseph on a line with Stutzle was the two players’ similar skating acceleration and velocity. Furthermore, it was also thought to help spread out the team’s scoring. The problem with that is that neither of the three players on that line had a very productive year or were very efficient. The Sens have a lot of change since the end of last season, including a new head coach in Travis Green, and the idea is that Stutzle see more exclusive scoring opportunity deployments. For example, not having to help a player try to increase their own offensive output like was the thinking with matching up with Joseph.

The Senators have added a great deal of pieces to their, we will say, bottom-nine. Players like Michael Amadio or Noah Gregor will really provide increased support to those depth lines. David Perron is a bit of a wild-card, because given his smarts and abilities, he could fill in on any of the four lines. In contrast, don’t anticipate him to play a regular shift on the top line, if he gets there at all. The point is, what Stutzle is left with is options to help complement him on the top scoring line. Depending who it is, his linemates could potentially really drive up his offence.

What the Sens Top Line Will Look Like in 2024-25

Of the names that will cycle in the top-six, Stutzle has played with Tkachuk, Giroux, and also Drake Batherson the most of the available options. Also, Shane Pinto and Joshua Norris help to round out the club’s potential goal-scoring threats. Therefore, it seems like Stutzle will be insulated with a strong layer of support from the offensive side of the puck.

Stutzle has also shown an incredible ability to stay fresh, even as he has been utilized in penalty killing roles. His speed, strength on the puck, and anticipation make him a very effective penalty killer when called upon. So, it is difficult to think he won’t continue to be used there. This is despite the fact, and bolstered by offseason acquisitions, that the Sens have plenty of options on the PK. Lastly, is the fact that Stutzle’s spot on the top power play unit is all but guaranteed, so don’t expect a drop in production.

Tim Stutzle 2024-25 Point Projections and the Fact He Does it All

The Sens have a lot of the same personnel for the top power play, look for them to regain their form. That is the form that saw them score the second most power play goals back in 2022-23. This would hugely boosted by Stutzle’s offensive production that campaign.

When we crunch numbers, and if we assume that Stutzle’s 2023-24 was slowed by injury, things are looking up for the young German superstar. Stutzle has been over 21 minutes a game each of the past two seasons, so don’t look for that to change. If we look at his combined ice time, he actually spent just over 100 more minutes on the special teams in 2022-23 than he did last year.

Some Key Performance Indicators for Stutzle

If we closely analyze Stutzle’s number in a few statistics highly correlated to point production, we would see no reason to anticipate a (positive) regression back to his mean values. That’s really the exciting thing about young players and their potential, you never know when they will hit their baseline. Given Stutzle’s shot rate, if he were to bounce back to 13% or higher of a shooting percentage that should land him up around 30 or more goals.

The idea with Stutzle, especially with his offence on the power play, is his dynamic playmaking, and being able to open up space to find his teammates open for scoring opportunities. Hence, he will garner a lot of points, especially power play ones, from assists. He should get somewhere between 25 and 30 points on the power play based on what we have considered. Also, he’s had 59 and 50 even strength points, respectively, two years ago and last year. If we are anticipated a more efficient top line configuration for Stutzle to play on, look for that to get to 55 and above, at least.

The Final Call

So, all-in-all, we put his expected 2024-25 point projections at 27 goals and 84 points. It could be higher, but that really depends on how much time he spends on the power play and how well his regular forward line gels together. We seen from last year, there’s an easy formula for success. Furthermore, that’s the reason for his 20-point drop from the year prior. As the Sens are more competitive, playing in tighter games, Stutzle will invariably end up in very important defensive responsibility roles. This will prevent him from hitting the 90-mark achieved in 2022-23. In the end, our number takes into account a lot of deployment variables. These are the type of variables that we won’t know how they play out until the season wears on.

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