Today we shall take a look at a comparison of the Ottawa Senators defence heading into 2024-25 versus last season. We will make the comparison on the actual 2023-24 results against the expected results from 2024-25. Will there be any surprises? Or is this a straightforward yes or no answer. How about the Linus Ullmark and Joonas Korpisalo trade on how it impacts the team‘s entire defensive schematic. So, let’s review the pieces first and then we can make a determination of which version is better off.
Studying How the 2024-25 Ottawa Senators Defence Stacks Up
When the Senators defence were on their respective games last year, they weren’t horrible by any means. If everyone was healthy, the table below shows that they had a set of three pairings they would stick with pretty consistently. However, neither of the two solid pairings were very efficient with actual goals being outnumbered by expected goals. Then, there was the Jakob Chychrun and Jacob Bernard-Docker pairing, and by the numbers, they were lacklustre at best. As a note, Travis Hamonic would be considered a number seven guy from last year for this group.
| LD | RD | Mins | xGoals% | Goals% |
| Sanderson | Zub | 828.6 | 55.1 | 52.1 |
| Chychrun | Bernard-Docker | 431.1 | 41.6 | 37.5 |
| Brannstrom | Chabot | 231 | 61.5 | 57.1 |
If we look at this year’s roster, there are some similarities, but also some pretty significant changes. The two subtractions are Erik Brannstrom (Colorado Avalanche) and Chychrun (Washington Capitals). Despite the two subtractions, there’s really only one addition, Nick Jensen. The rest of the six spots will be between Hamonic and the youngsters. Besides who we listed below, Maxence Guenette, Nikolas Matinpalo, or Filip Roos will be vying for spots. There are some defensive prospects for the Sens, like Carter Yakemchuk, Tomas Hamara, and Jorian Donovan. However, it seems those and the other promising prospects on the blueline are a year or two away.
| LD | RD |
| Sanderson | Zub |
| Chabot | Jensen |
| Kleven | Hamonic |
| Bernard-Docker |
Changes from Last Year to This Upcoming Campaign
Now that we have gone over the moving parts, let’s go over the the pairings as per our comparative analysis. First of all, is the dynamic pairing of Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub. This could easily be considered the top pairing for the Ottawa Senators defence, and they played together in a similar role last season. Sanderson and Zub’s actual results in 2024-25 will depend highly on how they’re utilized. If they are given the tough defensive assignments, their statistics might not look so pretty, but their value to the team would actually increase.
On the other hand, if Thomas Chabot and Jensen shoulder the defensive responsibility load, Sanderson and Zub might put up big numbers. The takeaway here, is given the year of playing together for Sanderson and Zub last season, they should improve on their play when they are on the ice together. For the Sens as a whole, that is a huge deal.
Last year, according to moneypuck, the Sanderson and Zub pairing were on for 38 goals for and 35 against, or plus-three. With a more consistent pairing along with them in Chabot and Jensen, Sanderson and Zub should be able to improve their differential. So, where they were about a plus-three in nearly 830 minutes on ice together, they should get to a plus-five or so, in about the same amount of ice time. They might actually play together more, given that Zub played with other partners like Chychrun and Chabot a bit last year as well.
Will It Translate to the Win Column
We have previously discussed Thomas Chabot and how dependent the Sens are on having a strong season on Chabot’s strong play. The big key will be how much can newcomer Nick Jensen elevate Chabot’s play. Moreover, our prediction is that it will be significant of an improvement for Chabot. Chabot having a partner to complement his skillset, similar to when he had Dylan DeMelo on his right side, will be extremely beneficial. If we think about Chabot’s numbers with Chychrun and Brannstrom last year, combined in 576 minutes, he had 26 goals for and 31 goals against. Don’t forget also that Chabot struggled with injury trouble last season. If everything goes well, playing with Jensen in 2024-25, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see that pairing play with a between plus-five and ten goal differential.
Okay, so, it is not an exact science, but the beauty of statistics, is that there is no such thing as a perfect model. From a simple linear regression model studying goals for and against versus team’s winning percentage last year, we had a finding. If teams scored 250 and allowed 250, they would average to 90.4 points. However, if they swung to 255 goals for, and 245 goals against, they’d jump to 93.7 points. Based on our calculations, of the Sens top-four, last year they were around a minus-two differential. If given these changes, they could see their differential jump to about plus-ten. Also, consider the fact that it is dependent on ice time, so the actual amount would be more. In any case, we are likely seeing four or five total points generated in the final standings. This is solely based on the top-four defencemen.
Other Factors to Consider
We have already went in depth on the third pairing for the Ottawa Senators defence. It seems that the competition for those spots will make it stronger. Also, all those young players fighting for roster jobs, are a year more experienced now coming into 2024-25. For us here, we see Max Guenette as a potential dark horse to find a job in the NHL and provide defensive accountability to that third pairing. Management will also have their sights on scouring the trade route or free agency to find that missing piece on the third pair if need be.
And, we still haven’t discussed goaltending. It does seem the goaltending is improved over last year. Bringing in a Vezina-calibre goaltender can only be a positive. One thing to consider is that Ullmark was successful with Buffalo before being given the protection of a sound defensive structure in Boston. Based on our discussion, on the surface it may not be obvious. However, it seems that the little changes the Sens have made defensively, even adding a veteran upfront like David Perron, that overall the defensive unit will be strong and lead to more points in the standings in 2024-25 than it did in 2023-24.
Main photo: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports
