The Toronto Maple Leafs young forward Matthew Knies’ point projection for 2024-25 has a fair bit of variability. Here we shall breakdown the factors that will govern his expected output for the upcoming season. Furthermore, Knies does have the potential to breakout offensively and post big numbers. However, given all the significant factors considered, will the needle tilt in his favour? Will Knies combine some good old fashioned luck, in terms of an elevated shooting percentage, and put up a dominant, top-line season for the Leafs in 2024-25?
Matthew Knies Point Projection for 2024-25
Let’s make no bones about it, Matthew Knies could very easily put up monster numbers in 2024-25. Now, will he score 35 goals and put up 70 points? Well that type of leap in production year-over-year is unlikely. In contrast, when you have an offensive weapon, one who has scored 60 goals twice over the past three NHL seasons playing on your line regularly, 70 is not out of the realm of possibilities. Of course, that player is none other than Auston Matthews.
Before We Can Look Ahead a Look in the Rearview
In order to predict his possible production, we shall start with a quick review of Knies’ 2023-24 offensive stats. He played 80 games and notched 15 goals along with 20 assists for 35 points. Moreover, this was achieved impressively in just 13:41 of average ice time. He also had a shooting percentage at 13.0%. That is a very solid number for a rookie. Playing with someone like Matthews, it is possible for him to maintain such a standing, or even increase it. Although, if he is on the ice more, taking more shots, it could also dip slightly.
There is another important intangible in Knies’ play. That other main attribute is his physical presence. He brings that much needed element of toughness to the Leafs top-six forward group. Moreover, this was evidenced by his 169 hits in 2023-24. Knies will be 22 years old when the season rolls around. His toughness combined with a little youthful exuberance is also helping to propel his projections higher.
Using his Linemates Stats for Matthew Knies Estimated Point Projection
Analytically speaking, Knies did prove his worth. He played primarily on a line with Auston Matthews, and one of either William Nylander or mostly Mitch Marner. Moreover, in 404.3 minutes skating on a line with Marner and Matthews, the trio had an xGoals% of 58.7%. For Knies individually, his expected goals of 14.7 was good for sixth on the Leafs in 2023-24. That would be driven by his propensity of playing with the top scorers and time spent in offensive opportunities. Knies’ productivity is very dependent on his situational distribution.
Some Leaf fans might be surprised to find out his special team contributions, or lack thereof contribution. He skated just 50.9 minutes on the heavily-clogged Leafs power play in 2023-24. Interestingly enough, given his strength on the puck, and having an opportunity to line up with his usual linemates under certain circumstances, he had 23 minutes on the penalty kill. However, if he is performing at a high-level offensively, killing penalties is not a target for him in general. One metric that points to his utilization in different situations is his CF% Rel of -1.4% overall. Typically, offensively focused players can have values of +10% or more in such a metric. For example, Matthews sits at a CF% Rel of 11.7% for his career, and even higher in recent seasons.
Compared with his most regular linemates, Knies did have a much lower offensive zone start percentage. Knies was under 12%. However, Marner and Matthews, as an example, were up around 18%. So, perhaps as expected as it seems, Knies was being utilized in a role more as a two-way player, despite the thinking of him as an offensive player, playing alongside Auston Matthews.
Will Knies Clearly Establish Himself as a Top-Line Scoring Option in 2024-25
Based on the amount of variables we have discussed as possible influential factors for Matthew Knies point projection in 2024-25, it is hard to narrow down a number. You’d like to think he will be up to a number like 16 minutes a night, given this being his NHL sophomore campaign. If not more. This would invariably bump up his points (from his 35 last year), just in a points-per-60 minutes standpoint. Last year he was at 1.9, which is more than an acceptable number. With more playing time, and more rhythm and chemistry, it isn’t impossible to see it more like 2.3 or above.
He already had a strong expected goal rating, as a big body down low for the Leafs. If he is getting more power play time and a bit higher of an o-zone start percentage, again, these variables will all push up his point total. One statistic we have discussed that might dip his potential total, is his shooting percentage. If he his playing more and taking a lot more shots, as a young player, it would not be unreasonable to see his shooting percentage average out a bit compared to overall throughout the league, down to more like 11%. In the end, look for Knies, assuming 75 or more games played, to hit somewhere between 50 and 60 points in 2024-25. This writer lands on 54 for those who want an exact number.
Main photo credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
