After an epic season and playoff run that will be talked about for ages, the Edmonton Oilers just missed out on their ultimate goal of the Stanley Cup victory by a margin thinner than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ playoff beard. Between expiring contracts, trades, and buyouts, a significant number of Edmonton Oilers may not be around next season, thus, we may see a lot of roster turnover. This article will focus on the forwards, general manager, and coaches that fit that description. In a follow-up, Part II we will discuss the defence and goaltenders.
The State of the Union Addressing the Potential Edmonton Oilers Offseason Roster Turnover
According to Capfriendly.com, the Oilers have just $10 million in available cap space with only 14 players signed for the coming season. Those 14 include seven forwards (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan McLeod, and Derek Ryan), five defencemen (Darnell Nurse, Mattias Ekholm, Evan Bouchard, Cody Ceci, and Brett Kulak) and two goalies (Stuart Skinner and Jack Campbell).
Who will be staying and who will be going from the remaining roster? And who might leave in trades and buyouts? Always keeping in mind that according to Oilers broadcast voice, insider, and employee, Bob Stauffer, negotiations for Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard’s contract extensions are already underway. He expects those to total $40 million dollars as their contracts expire over the next two seasons.
The Forwards
McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins, and McLeod aren’t going anywhere. There is one huge potential exception, and that is if the Oilers can’t re-sign Draisaitl early. They can’t lose that kind of asset for nothing the way the Calgary Flames did with Johnny Gaudreau. That would change everything. However, what about the rest of the forward bunch?
Warren Foegele
Foegele leads the charge of potential Edmonton Oilers roster turnover on the forward group. He is an unrestricted free agent (UFA) who has a lot of leverage in his current position. Oilers fans had a bit of a hard time accepting him when he came over from the Carolina Hurricanes in a 2021 trade for very popular right-hand defenceman, Ethan Bear. A slow start didn’t help things. Neither did the fact that the Oilers were going through coaches like cheap composite hockey sticks at the time.
Rotating coaching staffs didn’t seem to know where to put him. Sometimes he played on the top line with McDavid. Other times, he rode shotgun on the second line with Draisaitl. He spent considerable time on the third line, some on the fourth. He was a healthy scratch at times. Still, the talent was always there for the man teammates call “McLovin” for his namesake to the character in the 2007 Superbad movie.
But Foegele had a career year at precisely the right time. He put up 20 goals and 21 assists while playing all the way up and down the lineup. Having a nice little hot streak in the Stanley Cup Final series against the Florida Panthers after being a healthy scratch earlier in the playoffs didn’t hurt his case in the least. He is due for a significant raise on his $2.15 million contract. The timing is perfect for Foegele, not so much for the Oilers. Other teams will come calling. With a tight cap environment, Foegele has likely priced himself out of Edmonton.
Dylan Holloway
Foegele could be replaced internally by restricted free agent (RFA) Holloway. He made huge strides in his development this year. Everyone expected much more out of the 14th-overall 2021 draft pick. His junior and collegiate play showed great promise. Holloway is big, fast, plays with an edge, and had shown offensive progression on his climb up the ladder to the NHL. His University of Wisconsin coach raved about “Hollywood.”
Then injury struck. He suffered a significant hand/wrist injury in college and was determined to play through it in the Badgers playoff run. The injury had to be operated on, and Holloway’s offensive prowess waned. Hand injuries can be like that. Team doctors determined that the hand hadn’t healed properly, so they operated again. He showed his potential with the Oilers farm team, the AHL Bakersfield Condors. There he was playing a larger role in the lineup with better statistics. However, each call-up to Edmonton saw his play only earning limited ice time, with limited results. It was as if he wasn’t sure what kind of player he was and where he fit in.
He missed assignments, struggled offensively, and was eventually sent back to the minors again. In his last 2023-24 demotion, he found his game in the last dozen games and was brought back to the big team. Then, this year’s playoffs, an inexplicably wow! Responsible all over the ice and better offence. Holloway’s offence will likely never be top shelf, but his high end has him comparable to Foegele. He had a value contract of $925,000 last season. With limited bargaining leverage, the team will be eager to keep him in the fold. Value contracts are a must going forward for Edmonton.
Connor Brown
Brown was last offseason’s big free agent signing. He was McDavid’s old teammate in junior, and previously had very productive seasons with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators. Then, he missed almost a whole season due to injury with the Washington Capitals.
Edmonton expected the Maple Leafs/Senators Brown. They got the Capitals version. He laboured in his skating, and barely matched his Capitals 0-0-0 statistics until very late in the season. Along with Nurse, Brown was the Edmonton fan base’s favourite whipping boy. He was healthy scratched at times, and fans were calling for him to be released before a significant contract bonus kicked in. While Brown was playing on a bargain $775,000 contract, he got a $3.225 million bonus (payable in the coming 2024-2025 season) tacked on simply for playing ten games.
Slowly, Brown’s game came back. His penalty killing, forecheck, and “good stick” started to contribute to the team’s style of play. He got a few assists. Then, a goal. By the time the playoffs came around, the pair of Brown and Mattias Janmark were a force. At both ends of the ice. Brown’s scoring will likely not come back to what it was, but he is contributing in many other ways now. After his playoff renaissance, the Oilers would love to have the UFA back at $775,000. But would Brown accept that?
Management and Coaching Staff
The Edmonton Oilers roster turnover trickles down to the off-ice jobs as well. Contracts for coaches and managers also expire June 30th. With a three-year contract, Head Coach Kris Knoblauch’s Scotty Bowman-esque moves throughout the season, and playoffs show that he is not going anywhere.
Ken Holland
It can’t all be roses, right? At age 68, with an expiring contract, it is currently being reported Holland will not return. Now it is not for certain, but indications do seem that Holland won’t be back as GM. Maybe it is time for retirement, and after building the Oilers into an undisputed contender, well deserved if he so chooses that route.
Report: Ken Holland will not return to Oilers, may look for new challenge or retire | by @jsbmbaggedmilk
Link: https://t.co/CIc4nebRKk #oilers #nhl
— Oilersnation.com, Oily Since ‘07 (@OilersNation) June 26, 2024
Paul Coffey
Paul Coffey is not a career coach. His experience primarily involved skills coaching and mentoring his child’s teams in the Toronto Marlboros u15’s and U16’s. He was serving as a senior adviser to the Oilers when Knoblauch was hired. Coffey told the team he wasn’t interested in coaching when asked. Then, Oilers owner Daryl Katz reportedly intervened and personally requested Coffey join the team as defence coach. The results were a spectacular turnaround in the defence corp. It is unclear if Coffey will return, but if he does, the Oilers will surely be glad given this past season’s track record.
The Verdict on Edmonton Oilers Roster Turnover
There is likely to be considerable churn on the current Oilers roster over the summer, with only McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, Nugent Hopkins, and McLeod “sure” bets to remain from the forwards. Holland specifically, but possibly Coffey too, will likely move on. Not to say in Coffey’s case, it couldn’t be in another role with the club.
The rest remain moveable parts on the chess board. UFA Mattias Janmark is likely coming back if he and the Oilers compromise on a lower-salary, two-year deal like the team and Ryan did last year. Kane would seem to be safe, but age and injury have taken a big bite out of him, and the Oilers may want to move on from his $5.125 million salary. The team would love to keep UFA Adam Henrique, but he can likely make much more elsewhere.
39-year-old UFA Corey Perry has said he wants to play another season and anyone who has played in four of the last five Stanley Cup Finals can’t be sneezed at. At age 34, Sam Gagner played significant parts of last season in the minors or as a healthy scratch on the big team. Another name, this one of the opposite end of his career, Raphael Lavoie, just hasn’t achieved any traction with the Oilers. It’s probably best for both sides to give the player an opportunity elsewhere.
One last mention for Edmonton Oilers roster turnover is UFA Sam Carrick, who is a well-seasoned 34. He had a reasonable salary of $850,000. Unfortunately, Derek Ryan already has a similar contract through next year. Still, Carrick is a usable depth piece the Oilers could well keep if the stars align right. The 39-year-old Ryan could possibly retire. He’d make a heck of a coach.
It certainly isn’t going to be easy with just $10 million available and only 14 contracts filled. In the words of the NORAD war-simulating super computer Joshua to Matthew Broderick in the 1983 movie WarGames, “Shall we play a game?”
Main photo credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
