Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

The Canucks Are Underdogs Against the Oilers and That’s Fine

The Vancouver Canucks and Edmonton Oilers second round 2024 NHL Stanley Cup playoff series has a lot of storylines. For starters, it is an all-Canadian matchup and the first between these two teams since 1992. Can Arturs Silovs continue his strong play until Thatcher Demko gets back? Will the Canucks be able to handle Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and the deadly Oilers offence and power play? Can Elias Pettersson get going offensively? But a big storyline and one we are going to focus on is that the Canucks are underdogs heading into the series against the Oilers.

The Canucks Are Underdogs, Big Underdogs

If you go around the internet and look at the projections for the Vancouver and Edmonton series, many favour Edmonton. Take a look at the predictions from ESPN staff. All but one of the 24 reporters and analysts picked the Oilers including Ray Ferraro, who lives in Vancouver. The only one who picked the Canucks was Ryan S. Clark.

Numerous betting sites also don’t favour Vancouver. This carries through for not only winning the series, but also, gives them low odds at winning the Stanley Cup. Is it justifiable? Just look at the results, on this gameday morning on the West Coast, Edmonton is currently favoured to win the series at -270. Wow! Also, below in the NHL’s tweet is the current Cup odds. 

One more way to check the results, is studying the more analytic, probabilistic models on the series outcome. Understanding the possible outcomes through this lens, allows you to consider all possibilities ahead of time. Then, as the series moves on, either through injuries or perhaps hot streaks, you can adjust your probabilities accordingly.

The Canucks Being Underdogs Is Fine

It’s hard not to see why the Oilers are favoured over the Canucks. They have been one of the hottest teams in the league since November when Kris Knoblauch took over from the fired Jay Woodcroft. Edmonton of course, has McDavid and Draisaitl as well as 50-goal scorer from this year in Hyman. The Oilers’ power play torched the Los Angeles Kings in the first round. The likes of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Warren Foegele provide depth scoring. Evan Bouchard has been one of the NHL’s best defencemen as he is paired up with Mattias Ekholm.

Edmonton has the star power and depth. They are a team that thrives on scoring goals. Some have even predicted the Oilers to go to the final or even win the Stanley Cup. For the Canucks, being the underdogs is fine. Every sport has underdogs. An underdog beating the favoured team is always a good story. After all, it is the premise of many sports films.

Being underestimated is never a bad thing. In hockey and other aspects of life, when someone is underestimated, it should make them stronger. There is more motivation and more desire to prove people wrong. After all, one of the best feelings anyone can have.

The Canucks Have Been Underdogs Before

Well technically, they still are especially with Demko out. As mentioned last week, the Canucks were resilient in their six-game series win over the Nashville Predators. It wasn’t easy but they found ways to win.

Vancouver has been doubted many times already. They were projected to be Wild Card playoff team at the beginning of the season. Nobody expected them to have the regular season they had and be where they are now. Even after their hot start, doubters were saying the Canucks and their PDO would regress. Well, the PDO did regress and the Canucks did kind of fall off since the All-Star break but it wasn’t a massive negative regression and they still finished in the top ten in the NHL’s standings.

The pressure will be on the Oilers. With them favoured to win the series and go deeper into the post-season, the pressure on them is hot. It’s also the ninth season of the dynamic duo that is McDavid and Draisaitl. They only have been past round two once and that was in 2022 when they got swept by the Colorado Avalanche, who of course went on to win the Stanley Cup. Another early playoff exit would bring more doubt to the Oilers and many would wonder if McDavid and Draisaitl would have doubts about staying in Edmonton longer.

Embracing the Underdog Role

It’s not going to be an easy series for both teams. The Oilers will try to outwit the Canucks with their offence. The Canucks and their emphasis on structure will try to throw the Oilers off their game.

You might bring up the fact that Vancouver swept the regular season series against Edmonton. That means nothing in the playoffs. The Winnipeg Jets beat the Colorado Avalanche three times in the regular season but bowed out in five games to them in the playoffs. The Oilers themselves are even tired of hearing about the regular season games against the Canucks.

The Canucks and their fans should embrace being the underdog. As mentioned earlier, there is nothing wrong with being underestimated.

This is a series that could have fireworks and be a classic. Don’t be surprised if it goes six or seven games.

“I love being doubted,” said Canucks Head Coach Rick Tocchet after an optional practice on Sunday via Kevin Woodley of NHL.Com. “At the start of the year, if you asked, ‘Is Vancouver going to make the playoffs?’ A lot of people said no or a bubble team. So, we were underdogs there. As the season went on, when are they going to fall? Now, same thing. People said the Preds are going to win. … I just think we kind of like that underdog role and I think players should embrace it. I really do.”

Embracing the doubters is great. Starting tonight, it is all about putting the embracing and talking to good use. It should be a fun series.

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Main photo: Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports

 

Joshua Rey

Joshua Rey

Joshua Rey covers the Vancouver Canucks for Last Word On Sport and also covers the Vancouver Whitecaps and hosts the Terminal City FC Podcast for Area 51 Sports Network. He has previously written about the Canucks for Fansided and TSJ101Sports.

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