With the 2024 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs inching closer, the Tampa Bay Lightning have likely secured a spot with their recent performance in the past ten games (8-1-1). Tampa Bay holds the first Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference (41-25-7) with 89 points. As of today, the Lightning have four potential opponents they can play in the first round. We will first look at a Tampa Bay Lightning playoff preview matchup against the New York Rangers.
Analyzing a Potential Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Rangers Playoff Series Preview
Offensive Players and Statistics Head-To-Head
Tampa Bay and New York are two elite offensive teams in the NHL. In Tampa Bay, Nikita Kucherov ranks second in league scoring this season. Furthermore, the Lightning have their 40-goal guy in Brayden Point. Captain Steven Stamkos and Brandon Hagel offer complimentary scoring help on the second line. As for the Rangers, they have a Russian superstar of their own in Artemi Panarin, who ranks fourth in scoring this season. Furthermore, Vincent Trocheck has 75 points in 74 games and is on pace to break his single-season best totals.
Moving to depth scoring, both teams added upfront at the trade deadline. The Lightning acquired Anthony Duclair, who continues to score at a point-per-game pace with the Lightning thus far. Duclair found a spot on the top-line left wing next to Kucherov and Point, where he’s been effective at even strength. The Rangers were buyers again at the trade deadline, adding Alexander Wennberg and Jack Roslovic to boost the complimentary forward depth. While the Lightning bottom-six improved lately, the Rangers take the edge in scoring depth.
Looking at some offensive rate statistics, these teams are neck and neck. The Lightning register 2.51 goals per hour at 5v5 (2.51 GF/60), which ranks 20th in the NHL. Meanwhile, the Rangers score 2.54 goals per 60 at 5v5 (2.54 GF/60), which ranks 18th league-wide. Furthermore, both teams score at identical expected rates at 5v5. The Lightning record 2.42 expected goals per hour at 5v5 (2.42 xGF/60), good enough for 24th in the NHL. On the other hand, the Rangers register 2.46 expected goals per 60 at 5v5 (2.46 xGF/60), which ranks 23rd league-wide.
While both these teams rank lower in expected goal-scoring rates, they both pass the puck exceptionally well. The Lightning has a slight edge in the top six, while the Rangers have a slight edge in the bottom six.
Offence: Tie
Defensive Players and Statistics Head-To-Head
On the defensive end, this matchup is closer than one may think. The Lightning blue line runs behind veteran Victor Hedman, followed by late-bloomer Darren Raddysh. With Mikhail Sergachev likely done for the remainder of the season, the defensive depth is weak for the Bolts. On the other hand, the Rangers have a franchise-calibre defender in Adam Fox operating the back end. Additionally, K’Andre Miller and Jacob Trouba help round out the top four.
The Lightning traded for Matt Dumba at the trade deadline to help fill the vacant role of Sergachev. Dumba is not known for his offensive abilities, but his defensive play and physicality are impactful in Tampa Bay. The Rangers are deep on the blue line, with seven NHL-calibre defenders on the roster. This defensive depth will fuel a deep playoff run.
Now, moving into defensive rate statistics, the results of these two teams are opposites. New York allows 2.44 goals against per hour at 5v5 (2.44 GA/60), which ranks tied-14th in the NHL. On the other hand, Tampa Bay surrenders 2.83 goals against per 60 at 5v5 (2.83 GA/60), good enough for 27th league-wide. While the Rangers keep the puck out of their net, they tend to surrender higher-quality scoring chances more often than the Lightning. Tampa Bay’s shot quality-against rate is significantly better than their actual goals-against rate. The Lightning allows 2.49 expected goals against per hour (2.49 xGA/60), which ranks tied-12th in the NHL. Meanwhile, the Rangers allow 2.65 expected goals against per 60 (2.65 xGA/60), good enough for 22nd in the NHL.
While Tampa Bay is considered a weak defensive team, statistics show the Bolts have not received Stanley Cup-contending goaltending this season. However, the Rangers defence is deep on paper and can shut down top opponents any night.
Defence: New York
Goaltending With Statistics Head-To-Head
Goalies being voodoo is a common cliche amongst the statistical hockey community, and this statement could not be more accurate. Year after year, goaltenders have the most variable statistical performances in the league compared to forwards and defenders. Goaltending statistics have historically been influential based on team systems or team defence.
The Rangers continue to receive elite goaltending every season, no matter who’s in goal. Despite his slow start, Igor Shesterkin is back in playoff form and ranks ninth in goals saved above expected in all situations (12.7 GSAx). Furthermore, backup Jonathan Quick revived his career in New York. He’s been impressive and ranks 12th in goals saved above expected league-wide (11.6 GSAx).
On the other hand, the Lightning’s goaltending has held them back a bit this season. Andrei Vasilevskiy ranks 56th in goals saved above expected following his return to injury (-0.9 GSAx). Despite his underwhelming numbers, Vasilevskiy can provide elite goaltending on any night and will be the X-Factor for the Lightning come playoff time. Behind Vasilevskiy, Jonas Johansson ranks 88th in goals saved above expected this season (-8.9 GSAx).
For our playoff preview, the Tampa Bay Lightning goaltending is at a statistical disadvantage again. New York has two solid goaltenders to rotate throughout the playoffs if needed, giving them the edge in the goaltending category.
Goaltending: New York
Final Analysis for the New York Rangers and Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Preview
Without question, the Rangers and Lightning are the closest of the four first-round matchups we will look at here at Last Word. Both offences are identical at 5v5. Moreover, both sides are elite puck-moving offensive teams. The Rangers emerged from their rebuild relatively quickly, while the Lightning’s contention window is closing. With a brief overview, we believe this series can go either way, but we will hand New York the edge for now.
Current Prediction: New York Wins in 6 or 7 games
Raw stats via NaturalStatTrick & MoneyPuck
Main photo: James Carey Lauder-USA TODAY Sports
