He shoots….he scores! This is what Carolina Hurricanes management and fans are likely feeling after the conclusion of the 2024 NHL trade deadline. As the March 8th finish line rapidly approached, many teams started making moves early. The Vancouver Canucks picked up Elias Lindholm while the Winnipeg Jets nabbed Sean Monahan. As it got closer and closer to the end, Hurricanes fans were bombarded with rumours about what the Hurricanes may….or may not do.
At first, the target seemed to be a goalie as well as a forward. But then the collective goaltending improved, and Frederik Andersen made it back from an unfortunate blood clotting issue that kept him out essentially all year. With four goaltenders in the fold, all the sounds slipping through the cracks indicated that Carolina would like to upgrade their top nine forwards. But also that they infamously “liked their group.” Due to history and very vocalized feelings about avoiding rentals at the deadline from management, fans hoped for the best but probably expected very little. But in a complete change of events, that hope was fulfilled.
What Could Have Been and What Was
Expectations and results. It is what drives hope and disappointment. In last year’s trade deadline, Carolina was supposedly in on Timo Meier until the final moments when he ultimately went to the New Jersey Devils. Carolina ultimately made minor moves for Shayne Gostisbehere and Jesse Puljujarvi. This was after a summer when they were supposedly in on Matthew Tkachuk but again lost out to the Florida Panthers. So when rumours were swirling that Carolina was making a strong push for Jake Guentzel this year, most had skeptic anticipation.
After starting slow but picking up some sixth-round picks for salary brokering and trading an unsigned prospect, Carolina finally delivered. They made the move the day before the deadline to acquire the biggest name on the trade block in Jake Guentzel. They also got defenceman Ty Smith in the deal. He could still develop into a solid NHLer, but as of now, he has been more of an AHL or depth player. Then the next morning on deadline day, they made a low-risk, high-reward move to trade a third-round pick for centre Evgeny Kuznetsov.
The Additions
Both of these pickups serve a huge purpose for Carolina and should bolster their lineup for a strong playoff push. But they are two different moves.
Jake Guentzel Fit Like a Glove
The big fish was Jake Guentzel. And he checked almost every box that Carolina needed as a team. The only way he didn’t fit was being a rental, but the reward was worth the cost. Carolina has been very strong the last few years and has consistently made it a few rounds in the playoffs. But they have also consistently come just short of reaching their ultimate goal. That could be due to several things, including just dumb luck, but most agree that they needed a game-changer and goal-scorer. As a team that consistently leads in expected goals, possession and shot generation, having someone who can consistently put the puck in the net seemed like the final piece to the puzzle. But it’s also the opportune goals that matter in the playoffs as much as the sheer number.
Guentzel on the Ice
Insert Jake Guentzel. Guentzel is a shoot-first player with an insanely high hockey IQ. He can create space himself and find ways to get the puck on net. Over his career, he has had a pair of 40-goal seasons and multiple 20 to 30-goal seasons. While his defensive game isn’t particularly strong, Carolina’s system and additional players should be able to insulate those deficiencies. Not to mention that he is so good offensively it’s worth the tradeoff.
But for Carolina, what is even bigger is Guentzel’s playoff performance. In 58 playoff games, Guentzel has 34 goals and 24 assists. A point-per-game in the playoffs is nothing short of impressive. While some might say his production could suffer some not being alongside Sidney Crosby, he has shown consistent production even without Crosby. And while Sebastian Aho may not be Crosby, Guentzel will most likely benefit from playing on the elite Finnish centre’s wing. So when the team needs goal-scoring in the playoffs, Guentzel is the guy.
If You Want It, We Got It
But not only did he fit like a glove on the ice for Carolina, this entire transaction between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Hurricanes seemed like a perfect fit for Carolina. And it very well may have been why they won the Guentzel sweepstakes. In return for Guentzel, Carolina gave up Michael Bunting as well as a trio of prospects and two conditional picks.
It was clear that Pittsburgh preferred players and prospects over picks. Due to Carolina’s “throw as many darts at the board” drafting strategy over the last few years, they had an abundance of prospects. And while you hate to see certain ones with potential go, they all won’t have a place at the same time and you risk losing them for nothing if they make it to the NHL. Not to mention you have to give to get. It is noteworthy as well that Carolina did not lose any of their top prospects in this deal.
But then even Bunting fit Kyle Dubas’ wishlist. Bunting had multiple previous stints playing under Dubas. It became clear that this was a player Dubas knew and wanted. While Carolina didn’t particularly want to move Bunting, flipping him for Guentzel was worth it. Negotiations can be tough, but when each side has what the other wants, it helps push the deal to the finish line.
Evgeny Kuznetsov Worth the Risk
The next move Carolina made was to get centre Evgeny Kuznetsov from the Washington Capitals. This was entirely a low-risk, high-reward move for Carolina. It was much like the Puljujarvi trade they made last season, with more upside. In return, Carolina sent a third-round draft pick. Washington also retained 50% of Kuznetsov’s salary which includes another year on this deal.
Prime Kuzy
Kuznetsov in his prime was a great playmaking centre. He provides a different element to Carolina’s team as he plays really well off the rush. Over his career, he has had multiple 70-point seasons and one over 80. His skill is very high, and he has historically been able to set players up in prime scoring positions left and right. He has also been an effective penalty killer even though his overall defensive game isn’t really a strength. Not to mention his “broken controller” penalty shot. And somewhat like Guentzel, his playoff performance too has been impressive. In 87 playoff games, he has 29 goals and 38 assists.
Buying Low
However, in the last few seasons, and especially this one, he has basically fallen off a cliff in production. He ran into some personal issues as well which likely contributed to his downfall. Prior to the trade, Washington waived him and sent him down to the AHL after he cleared. But at 50% retained, trading only a third-round pick for a potential resurgence is worth the risk. Carolina has a group of Russians, including Kuznetsov’s former teammate Dmitry Orlov. The hope is that with some familiar faces, a change of scenery, and Rod Brind’Amour behind the bench, Kuznetsov can solidify Carolina down the middle.
This also brings up the point that strength down the middle is essential for a good playoff performance. There is not much guarantee that this move will in fact work, but if it does, it could be huge. With Jesperi Kotkaniemi struggling, Carolina had Jack Drury in the second-line centre role. While Drury has had a good season, if Carolina can get a resurged Kuznetsov, that could give the team a second-line centre while allowing for greater strength down the lineup. Time will tell on Kuznetsov but for only a third-round pick, it was worth the risk.
Does Management Believe this is the Year, Fear a Pending Offseason Change, or Both?
While the Kuznetsov move seemed like a typical “buy-low” move for Carolina, the Guentzel trade went completely off the books. As mentioned above, the match seemed like one made in heaven. Except that Guentzel is a UFA after the year. While Carolina likely hopes to sign Guentzel to an extension, even if not and they can make noise in the playoffs, the trade finally was worth the risk of a rental. I’m not going to say they didn’t lose anything, but Carolina didn’t give up any of their top prospects or a guaranteed first-round pick for a potential game-changer.
This could signal a number of things from management too. Do they feel that this is the year? Even more than last year? Seems like yes and no. Do they feel like this is the last shot with this collective group with so many UFAs after the season? (We took a look at the upcoming UFAs in an article here.) Honestly, probably not even though it may have some influence.
What this move showed was that yes, management believes the window is now and yes things may change in the offseason, but also that the risk was worth the potential reward. With minds in upper management like Erik Tulsky, every move Carolina makes comes with a high degree of analytical analysis. But sometimes you have to swing for the fence. And even if Carolina doesn’t win the Cup and Guentzel walks in the off-season, at least management showed the team and the fans that they are willing to go for it. Which at this point may be worth a lot.
Main Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
