The Tampa Bay Lightning trade deadline will be interesting to watch this season. Over the last several seasons, they’ve been active with deals. It started with Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow. More recently, it has been Tanner Jeannot and Michael Eyssimont. This season, there is a question of what the Lightning should do; buy or sell? Here at Last Word, Kyle Pereira and Jack Pallotta will start a series where they look at some potential trades. Let’s say they buy, who do they get? What do they give up? Today, we look at forward Vladimir Tarasenko of the Ottawa Senators.
Disclaimer: The players featured in these articles aren’t always linked to the Lightning but have been made available in some capacity this season. These pieces are observing whether Tampa should target them and what the cost would be if they did.
Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: Vladimir Tarasenko
After a successful and lengthy tenure with the St. Louis Blues, it was time for a change of scenery. Vladimir Tarasenko was vital to the Blues’ 2019 Stanley Cup Championship and will be a franchise icon forever. However, injuries severely limited his play after capturing Lord Stanley. At the 2023 NHL Trade Deadline, the New York Rangers acquired Tarasenko in exchange for a conditional 2023 first-round pick, a 2024 fourth-round pick, Sammy Blais, and Hunter Skinner. After a solid run with the Rangers, Tarasenko set to hit the free-agent market in July.
Tarasenko ultimately decided to sign a one-year, $5 million deal with the Senators. With the salary cap rising, many players took a chance on themselves by signing one-year contracts instead of signing traditional long-term deals for security. With Ottawa sitting last in the Atlantic Division with 51 points and underachieving, the Senators can sell an asset that doesn’t align with their long-term plans. Tarasenko’s name floated around the Lightning in trade rumors, so let’s break down his game and explore if he’s a potential trade fit.
Tarasenko Scouting Report
Tarasenko has always been known for his lightning-quick release. He is a natural goal-scorer who can beat goaltenders with placement and speed. Furthermore, Tarasenko is crafty with his puck handling and can torch defenders one-on-one. He is a solid skater with good balance and a low center of gravity. All these attributes together allow Tarasenko to be a dual threat on the rush and the forecheck/cycle game.
In 727 career NHL games, Tarasenko has recorded 285 goals and 326 assists for 611 points. Believe it or not, his career-best numbers came just two years ago in 2021-22, when Tarasenko notched 34 goals and 82 points in 78 games. In 52 games with Ottawa this season, Tarasenko has 15 goals and 22 assists for 37 points. He’s projected to finish the year with roughly 50-55 points in 79 games. Moreover, Tarasenko averages about 16 minutes of ice time per game, a career-worst in a sample size of 50 or more games played since 2014. With an increased role, does Tarasenko make sense for Tampa Bay at the trade deadline?
Tarasenko’s Strengths
While his deployment has not allowed Tarasenko to maximize his offensive game, he is still finding ways to be effective off the rush. Microstats data from All Three Zones has Tarasenko in the 68th percentile of rush offence per hour amongst forwards this season. In addition, Tarasenko utilizes the one-timer as one of his offensive weapons. He ranked in the 96th percentile or higher in one-timers per hour from 2021-23. A change of scenery in Ottawa has caused his one-timer numbers to dip, but he’s still above the league median. The significance of his one-timer ability is that Tarasenko can help Tampa Bay abuse the one-timer in their offensive attack.
Ultimately, Tarasenko provides attributes that complement the Lightning and help improve the team’s offensive abilities. The Lightning have struggled on the rush significantly this season. Our own tracked microstats data here at Last Word appears to agree. In three recently tracked games, the Lightning have been outshot on the rush 28-20 (41.67 RSHT%). Tarasenko can help provide another wave of scoring for the Lightning down the stretch. Now, what are the potential risks of trading for Tarasenko?
Taransenko’s Weaknesses
Overall, Tarasenko is a pretty complete offensive player. He can play off the rush and the cycle/forecheck, be a shooting threat, and pass the puck. Tarasenko’s core weakness is his play in the defensive zone. Hockeyviz heat maps have shown Tarasenko surrenders expected goals at a rate 12 percent worse than the league average this season. Tarasenko is dragging the team’s defensive results down with poor defensive play. The Lightning should not be interested in a defensive blackhole at the trade deadline. Let’s say the Lightning do target Tarasenko. What would a potential trade look like?
What It Would (Likely) Take To Acquire Tarasenko
With Mikhail Sergachev out for the rest of the season, the Lightning have $8.5 million in cap space to work with at the trade deadline. The best comparable to a potential Tarasenko trade is the trade he was involved in himself. This time around, the price tag will be cheaper for two reasons. The Lightning do not need the Senators to retain any salary on Tarasenko’s contract, and he will likely be the only asset involved in the trade. The Rangers also added Niko Mikkola in the Tarasenko trade, which cost them extra assets. With that, below is the framework for a potential trade.
Tampa Bay acquires: Vladimir Tarasenko (F)
Ottawa acquires: 2026 first-round pick
How Both Sides Benefit From the Trade
The Lightning are in desperate need of secondary scoring. Using the $8.5 million to acquire an offensive weapon in Tarasenko is wise. The bottom six has provided minimal support on offence, and a top-heavy scoring distribution won’t carry the team far in the playoffs. The Lightning add a much-needed scoring winger who can play in the top six. For the Senators, they gain draft capital from a free-agent signing experiment. Tarasenko was not part of the long-term plan for the Senators, so there is no harm in trading him here.
Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: In Or Out On Tarasenko
While many fans are adamant about acquiring a defenceman, the Lightning have depth on the back end with the emergence of Maxwell Crozier and Jack Thompson. Other organizations around the league do not have the minor league depth that the Lightning do. Hence why acquiring a forward will be more impactful at the trade deadline. Tampa Bay must provide franchise defender Victor Hedman with a stable partner soon before the playoffs. Hedman has been mixed and matched with all different players throughout the season. Not touching the blue line seems like the best move at the deadline.
As for Tarasenko, he is a pure offensive threat that will immediately improve the Lightning’s offence. The skilled and smooth skater can play alongside any of the Tampa Bay top six forwards. However, is Tarasenko the right target for Tampa Bay? What does he provide past this season? Based on the long-term outlook, the Lightning may be interested in targeting a younger forward. Tarasenko isn’t the worst option, but we would rather the Lightning sacrifice future assets for future stability at this stage in the contention window.
Advanced percentiles via AllThreeZones and HockeyViz (paid subscription required)
Raw stats via NaturalStatTrick & EvolvingHockey
Lightning tracked stats via Last Word (Kyle Pereira and Jack Pallotta)
Main Photo: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
