The Tampa Bay Lightning trade deadline will be interesting to watch this season. Over the last several seasons, they’ve been active with deals. It started with Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow. More recently, it has been Tanner Jeannot and Mikey Eyssimont. This season, there is a question of what the Lightning should do; buy or sell? Here at Last Word, Kyle Pereira and Jack Pallotta will start a series where they look at some potential trades. Let’s say they buy, who do they get? What do they give up? Today, we look at defenceman Nick Seeler from the Philadelphia Flyers
Disclaimer: The players featured in these articles aren’t always linked to the Lightning but have been made available in some capacity this season. These pieces are observing whether Tampa should target them and what the cost would be if they did.
Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: Nick Seeler
Seeler is relatively new to the limelight. Prior to joining the Flyers, he had averaged 12:45 minutes of ice time per game, across 105 games with two different teams in three seasons. Once he joined the Flyers in the 2021-22 season, that average jumped up to 14:55 per game over the last three seasons. This season, he has averaged 16:57 per game. As for actual production, he has recorded 38 points in 280 games. Looking at just this season, Seeler’s recorded nine points, all of which are assists. His best offensive out-put was in 2022-23, where he had 14 points (four goals and 10 assists).
Simply put, Seeler is not an offensive presence. His main trait comes from the defensive side of the game. Looking at Evolving-Hockey’s player cards, Seeler ranks in the 72nd percentile of defenders in defensive impact, and the 79th percentile in overall performance. When you look at the last three seasons, he places in the 88th percentile for defensive impact. He’s also 27th league-wide amongst defenders with at least 700 minutes of ice time at 5v5 in expected goals against. His xGA is 32.16, tying him with Evan Bouchard of the Edmonton Oilers. He jumps up to 16th league-wide when looking at defenders with 750+ minutes, out of 97 eligible defenders.
Seeler Scouting Report
What better game to review than the most recent Lightning vs. Flyers game, right? That’s what we at Last Word did. The first thing that was noticed: Philadelphia’s defensive zone coverage. It’s important to note this because in a recent piece looking at Urho Vaakanainen, it was made clear that the scheme he plays in is significantly different. Which, of course, would make transitioning to the Lightning harder to do in a short period of time. For Seeler and the Flyers, that problem won’t exist – at least not totally. The Flyers in-zone scheme is similar in that it’s more of a zone scheme. However, it extends out further than Tampa’s, giving their defenders more run way to get after opposing forwards.
That helps Seeler’s overall game. He plays aggressive, harassing puck carriers that enter his zone, sticking with them for a while until they lose the puck or pass it away. Even in situations where forwards curl up and skate towards the point. But don’t fret, his value isn’t dropped by becoming less obnoxious to deal with. Why? He is an absolute tank, throwing his body in front of shots at every opportunity. Seeler is completely unafraid to jump in front of 10+ shots every game. Think Erik Cernak. But, defence isn’t where the game ends in hockey.
Seeler’s Strengths
As mentioned, defence, defence, and defence. Seeler plays hard, getting involved in board battles and being a thorn in the side of opposing forwards trying to make plays. He also does anything and everything in his power to prevent goals against, including diving in front of a shot. With all of this considered, he still plays a very smart and structured game, playing with poise. All that said, that makes him a key fit for Tampa Bay. The Bolts love guys with a “Championship mentality” where they’ll put the team before anything else. Seeler won’t try to play hero. He will focus on his job, and his job only, with the idea of executing at the highest of levels.
It also really helps that Seeler is making just $775,000 this season. If the Lightning do acquire him, they’ll still have plenty of room left to play, salary-wise. That comes due to Mikhail Sergachev’s LTIR designation freeing up $8.5 million. Adding a physical defenceman in the ilk of what Tampa has liked to acquire, while still maintaining cap space for another move? Sounds too good to be true…
Seeler’s Concerns
… and as the saying goes, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Seeler is a left-shot defender. The Flyers have an abundance of right-shot defenders, especially with Jamie Drysdale coming to town recently. That likely means one (or two) right-shots get moved, like Sean Walker or Rasmus Ristolainen. Some left shots have versatility to play both sides, adding to their importance. So, it generally feels like one of Walker and Ristolainen could go, or it’s someone else, like Seeler. It’s hard to envision both Walker and Seeler getting dealt at this point. With some murmurs about Seeler likely staying in Philadelphia, and more rumours swirling around Walker, it feels safer and safer to say Seeler is not on table.
Not only that, the Flyers are going to drive a hard bargain. As it stands, Walker is going to cost a team a pretty penny. Seeler? On a cost-effective deal, while being actively pursued to extend his contract? With a clear role on the team, where he plays for John Tortorella, who loves guys like Seeler. Honestly, if Tortorella was asked to create an ideal second-pair defender in a lab, it would be Seeler. So any team that inquires about him, they’ll have to pay up. That may push the cost a bit too far for Tampa Bay. Oh, and Philadelphia is still sitting pretty at third in the Metropolitan Division, with seven points separating them and fourth place.
Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: What A Seeler Trade (Could) Cost
First, let’s look at some comparable trades. At the 2021 deadline, the Lightning went and acquired defenceman David Savard. They needed a third team to eat some of Savard’s salary, and coughed up a package of a 2021 first, a 2022 third, and a 2021 fourth (to Detroit). Keep in mind, Columbus retained salary on top of what Detroit retained, driving the price up a little higher. Savard is a shut-down defenceman with little to no offensive upside, playing a physical game that suits up well in the playoffs. Sound familiar?
That being said, it can be assumed that the fourth round pick sent to Detroit for cap purposes would not be necessary this time around. Plus, that first could become a second, or that second becomes a third. With that in mind, let’s look at what a Seeler trade could look like, with two perspectives. One, the Flyers really drive a hard price, with their heart set on retaining him. The other, the Flyers deal Seeler for a reasonable, but still expensive, cost, thinking that they do not want to lose him for free this off-season.
Trade One: Best-Case Deal
Tampa Bay Lightning acquire Seeler
Philadelphia Flyers acquire 2025 2nd round pick, Alex Barre-Boulet, and Haydn Fleury
Trade Two: Worst-Case Deal
Lightning acquire Seeler
Ducks acquire 2026 1st round pick, 2025 4th round pick, Barre-Boulet and Fleury
Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: In Or Out On Seeler
It is important to note here that if the Lightning acquire Seeler, with his cap hit, they’re likely looking to add a solid forward for the middle six. After all, the Lightning 31st in the league in points contributed by the bottom six (13.7% of their points came from the bottom six). Trading their first would be very rich for Seeler, not to mention the other pieces. If they trade their second round pick, a big trade chip of theirs, they have to feel all in. It likely means they’ll be willing to send their first round pick in 2026 for someone else to help that bottom six.
With everything to consider, we here at Last Word are all-in. The Lightning should be too, in all honesty. Their stars are entering their 30s, and the window is closing. If they want their third cup with this core, and their fourth as a franchise, they should throw all their chips on the table. Now, they’re doing this without looking at their hand and whether the guys they’re trading for is equivalent to pocket aces or a 2-9 off-suit*. But you have to go all-in to maximise this core, and Seeler feels as safe a bet to provide value on the back end in a big way as anyone else available. If the price is right for Julien BriseBois, he should push all his chips into the pot, sit back, and wait for the flop.
*-The worst hand in poker, for those unfamiliar.
Raw NHL stats and per game stats via Hockey-Reference
Advanced stats from Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick
Lightning bottom-six stats via Data Driven Hockey
Salary Cap information via CapFriendly
Main Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
