This round of NHL Predictions sees the Carolina Hurricanes “shipping up to Boston” as they take on the Bruins at TD Garden. Boston remains at the top of the league after another strong showing against the Winnipeg Jets on Monday night. Their 4-1 win over the Jets broke Winnipeg’s stretch of consecutive games without allowing more than two or three goals. Currently, on a five-game winning streak, the Bruins are almost mimicking their impressive regular season last year even though most expected a slight drop-off. Unsurprisingly, David Pastrnak continues his stellar play as he leads the Bruins in goals with 30.
Carolina comes into this one on sort of shaky ground once again. They started the season extremely inconsistent but somehow stuck around the upper side of the Metropolitan Division. Then they hit a stretch of hot play that included a five-game win streak with a slightly longer point streak. But as of late, the Hurricanes have seemed to have fallen back to inconsistency.
The Hurricanes are 7-2-1 in their last ten but their last four has been a major seesaw. They beat the Pittsburgh Penguins in overtime. They then followed it up with a bad showing against the Los Angeles Kings at home. Carolina then turned around and beat the then-hot Detroit Red Wings. This was followed up by one of arguably their most frustrating games against the Minnesota Wild. That one ended in a 5-2 loss even though the shots were wildly lopsided in Carolina’s favour.
This won’t be an easy one for Carolina and given their seemingly typical poor performance when the game is on a national broadcast, this has all the signs of a tough outing. But if they can pull it off, these three keys will be important for the Hurricanes.
NHL Predictions: Carolina Hurricanes vs Boston Bruins
Three Keys to Victory for Carolina
The Second or Fourth…no Second…Whatever Line Needs to Simply Be Better
The Hurricanes found some consistency with three out of its four lines over their recent strong stretch of play. The “SAT” line leading the way of Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen was great. Jack Drury and Stefan Noesen have shown chemistry on line four while the newly created line three of Jordan Martinook, Jordan Staal and Seth Jarvis were finding results as well as chances.
However, the de facto second line has been anything but consistent. Centring around (ironically) the centre on that line of Jesperi Kotkaniemi, it just hasn’t seemed to find any rhythm no matter who has been there. We have seen Kotkaniemi with Michael Bunting, Stefan Noesen, Jesper Fast and other random combinations. But for whatever reason the early success Kotkaniemi was finding is simply gone. It almost seems mental at this point because visually his on-ice play has generally been fairly reliable but the offensive flow and results haven’t been there.
With Drury and Noesen playing so well and this “second line” simply not, the game against Minnesota saw the lines seem to take a flip. The last is the first and the first is the last, or something like that. The line of Kotkaniemi, Bunting and Brendan Lemieux was the team’s fourth line in that one with Svechnikov out with injury. Bunting was actually one of Carolina’s better players that game and scored a goal but he too has had trouble finding much consistency with any line this season.
What was more alarming was that even though that line scored, immediately after both Kotkaniemi and Lemieux failed to get the puck out of the zone and turned it over to Minnesota who cashed in. That turned to be the game-winner. This line needs to ideally produce but even if not, they cannot have moments like this because a team like Boston will make you pay. This key holds true whether Svechnikov is available in this one or not, but if he is not it especially holds true.
Trust the Game
The Hurricanes game plan is not a secret to anyone. They forecheck hard, rely on shot generation and want their defence engaged offensively. Now arguments could be made about the pros and cons of this system that might require a deeper dive, but here we focus on a simple fact that arguably can be true for any team in the NHL. The team has to trust their system and not let frustration set in. Whether the “design” is perfect or flawed, if the pieces are not executing it in tandem it will just be a waste.
Carolina’s system has shown it can work and if executed well can work against almost anyone on a given night. But the team needs all hands on deck and has to play a game that has very limited moments of lapses. What is worse is when the results seem to be lacking and the team starts to get away from their game in frustration. This happened against Minnesota. As the game went on Carolina couldn’t seem to buy a goal. Players started trying to go out a little more on their own away from the game plan. This generally won’t work for anyone, but it definitely won’t work for a team relying so heavily on a team system. They cannot let frustration set in against Boston.
Treat Opportunities as Precious Gold
A lot of the keys for the Hurricanes this season have revolved around their special teams. That remains true here but really it is a piece to a larger picture. Special teams really is just one example of the fact that hockey games are won by who can capitalize on opportunities and limit those of the opposition. If we look at special teams specifically this season, these teams are essentially dead even. Carolina has a 27% power play compared to Boston’s 26.8%. On the other side, Boston’s 83.9% penalty kill compares to Carolina’s 83.3%. This is actually one of the closest special teams battles Carolina has played this season.
But to actually zoom out, Boston overall has been very good all season at limiting other teams’ abilities to capitalize. And also have a done a good job themselves in that category. Their 3.48 GF/GP and their 2.61 GA/GP have them running through the competition this season. Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark have once again been excellent all season in net. Maybe it’s some recency bias, but Carolina’s inability to capitalize on what felt like a tsunami of chances against Minnesota mixed with these numbers shows how important this will be against Boston. They can take 1,000 low-danger shots at the goalie’s chest. But if that’s the case, the Bruins might as well save the money and let a local pee-wee goalie suit up. Carolina needs to be more opportunistic in this one to squeak out a win.
Prediction Time
I wouldn’t say this is a David and Goliath matchup here. It really should be more of a Goliath vs Goliath matchup. But this matchup sees a Boston team riding a hot streak playing some very good and consistent hockey. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have the ability to hang with anyone but have fallen to some inconsistency.
With questions about Svechnikov’s playing status, playing on the road, and playing in front of a national broadcast, the Hurricanes forecast is looking a little more like a tropical depression than a category-five storm here. But it’s a new day with a new opportunity. If there is one thing about Rod Brind’Amour it’s that he treats every next moment as being independent from the previous one. If the team can flush the last game and adhere to these keys, they may perform. But with some uncertainty in this one, I’m going to ride the hot hand right now.
Prediction: Boston wins 3-1
Main Photo Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
