The Carolina Hurricanes season has been marked by almost anything but consistency. While the team lately has picked up their play, they are still searching for consistent rhythm. Their top players like Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen, Seth Jarvis, Martin Necas, Brent Burns and Jesperi Kotkaniemi have produced in waves. But most have not produced consistently. Andrei Svechnikov has been dealing with an injury so he gets a pass here.
This season requires the team to play the “hard game” and accept the fact that nothing will come easy. There is one player who has essentially been doing this his whole career. And he may be pushing for the team’s MVP up front so far. This is Stefan Noesen who continues to be a big piece this season.
Stefan Noesen Pushing for MVP this Season
Stefan Noesen found his way to Carolina as a free agent during the 2021 offseason. Signed to a one-year two-way deal, he played a pretty large role for the Calder Cup-winning Chicago Wolves of the AHL. As a journeyman in the NHL even though he was a first-round pick in 2011, he had spent time with the Ottawa Senators, Anaheim Ducks, New Jersey Devils, San Jose Sharks, and Pittsburgh Penguins, having his best NHL season in 2017-18 with New Jersey until that point.
While depth forwards that are up and down between the NHL and AHL tend to bounce around from place to place on short-term deals, Noesen decided to stick around and signed a two-year deal in 2022. The deal was a two-way deal the first year and a one-way the second. Reflecting the nature of that deal, Hurricanes General Manager Don Waddell said he wanted Noesen to help the Hurricanes at the NHL level. Especially considering he has an AAV of $762.5, he has not disappointed since.
While not a top producer, Noesen has provided Carolina with a versatile forward who can chip in offensively, provide scoring in the bottom six, provide a net-front presence to the power play, and play a gritty and hard-working game that fits Rod Brind’Amour‘s expectations. Not only that but he can be utilized on the top line as well. Much like Jalen Chatfield, Noesen seems to know that he is fortunate to be where he is and doesn’t really take a shift off. And this season, Noesen seems to have only improved.
Noesen by the Numbers
Taking a look at Stefan Noesen’s season so far starts with the simple statistics. Noesen has scored ten goals and has 20 points in 34 games. His ten goals are fourth on the team while his 20 points are seventh. Last season he scored 13 goals total so this is a big step forward if he can keep it up.
So, you sit back and say ok, that’s pretty good for a guy brought in at a low-cost deal expecting to spend a lot of time on the fourth line. But what’s more impressive is that he has those numbers with the fourth-lowest ice time on the team even though he’s played in every game so far. Meanwhile, off the puck, Noesen is fourth on the team in hits with 38.
The Advanced Numbers
His goals per sixty minutes of 1.46, his shooting percentage of 23%, his Corsi of 67% and his Fenwick of 66% all lead the Hurricanes. Meanwhile, his expected goals percentage of 63.9% is second. So what this tends to show is that Noesen is generating tons of chances while also finishing those chances at a higher rate than most other Hurricanes. We will explain some of why that might be below.
Is Stefan Noesen Elite this Season?
The last statistic that is worth noting for Noesen is his Goals Above Replacement. This is a metric used at Evolving-Hockey.com that assigns a single number to a player based on several components measuring different aspects of the game. This number represents the player’s contribution to their team. Players at the top of that list as of December 21 include Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Kucherov and Elias Pettersson. But notably, Stefan Noesen sits right there at number 11 of ALL PLAYERS in the league. For a guy who didn’t really see NHL ice much two years ago, this is pretty remarkable.
League leaders in GAR featuring Stefan Noesen pic.twitter.com/AMzveghLkA
— Evolving-Hockey (@EvolvingHockey) December 21, 2023
Power Play Specialist
So, Noesen is generating chances, hitting and finishing pretty well. But one thing that he has shown is an ability to contribute on the power play. He has three power play goals and five power play assists. His power play points are solid but not earth-shattering. He does lead the team in goals scored per sixty minutes at 5v4 play but even most of his advanced statistics are more middle-of-the-road on the power play. But what is so much more important is how he has affected the now eight-ranked power play in the league.
More than the Numbers
Noesen plays the spot down low and in front of the goalie on the power play. He will step out to the corner when the puck is worked to his side and move back to the front of the net when it is worked to the other side or to the point. Every single power play goal he has scored has come from the doorstep while all of his power play shots are from below the dots.
Andrei Svechnikov and Martin Necas can fire shots from the top of the circles and Brent Burns can blast bombs from the point, but without any net-front presence, most goalies can make a save regardless of the shot’s power. Noesen has a good shot, but it is his willingness to play down low and in front of the net that makes the difference. Even if he doesn’t score, that traffic is essential.
An example of his tenacity around the net was shown in the team’s last game against the New York Islanders.
Power play goal for Carolina!
Scored by Stefan Noesen with 10:43 remaining in the 3rd period.
Assisted by Martin Necas and Brady Skjei.
Carolina: 4
New York: 5#NYIvsCAR #CauseChaos #Isles pic.twitter.com/hYyITsEZtX— NHL Goals (@nhl_goal_bot) December 24, 2023
Noesen attempts to make a quick bumper pass and after it is blocked turns around to pound in the rebound. It’s not flashy, it’s not a highlight reel, but it’s what is making the difference for the power play which has largely been a strong point for this team.
A Little Skill, A Lot of Heart
So, by typical standards, Noesen might not be the team’s MVP right now. But for a team searching for consistency, he is doing all the right things. He has been bounced all around the lineup. This includes time on the team’s top line with Sebastian Aho and time on the team’s fourth line with Jack Drury and Brendan Lemieux. And he doesn’t seem to care.
Nothing Comes Easy
Noesen appears to recognize how nothing is easy and you can’t take anything for granted. The Texas native may not have the high-profile skill like Aho or Svechnikov and he realizes he can contribute in other ways. Nothing has ever come easy for Noesen. Coming from Texas and working his way up and down through the NHL. He knows nothing is guaranteed and plays every game like it is his last. But this play is turning out to be very essential for the team as shown by his GAR above.
You know what you are getting in Noesen. Sure, he may have some off games and maybe he’s not the best choice in the shootout (for whatever that’s worth). But you know he is going to work hard every game and produce results more with heart than skill. He and Jack Drury even had a small point streak run together recently that was very encouraging to see.
What is Right for Noesen’s Season
A lot of the reason for Stefan Noesen’s success this season? His willingness to go to the net that a lot of Hurricanes players seem to shy away from. Like the power play, most of his shots and all of his goals have come from below the dots. But he also isn’t afraid to fight in the corners, forecheck relentlessly, and even drop the gloves if necessary. Brind’Amour has provided that Noesen’s consistency is paying off for him as he has gotten more opportunity.
For a guy who has been around the league and utilized at both the NHL and AHL levels, he is embodying some of Rod Brind’Amour on the ice right now. Even after the Hurricanes Western Canada road trip debacle, it was Noesen who stepped up to the media to call out the team for their poor play. At 30 years old, Noesen seems to have found a home in Carolina. And so much so that he may be getting a pay raise next season.
Main Photo Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
