Here at Last Word, it’s been well documented how the Lightning defensive structure has played. Last season, it was Jeff Blashill. At the start of this year, there were concerns of tipped shots and if Jonas Johansson would be able to handle the pressure. Then earlier this week, it was the defensive pairs and how switching them up could help lessen some of the issues. Now, we look at the impact it had on the Lightning’s loss of Ryan McDonagh.
Tampa Bay Lightning Loss of Ryan McDonagh Bears Some Blame
The Tampa Bay Lightning had a stacked defensive core not too long ago. Their defence core helped carve out back-to-back Stanley Cup victories and a third straight Cup Final appearance. But on July 3rd, 2022, the Lightning dealt one of their core defensive pieces away in McDonagh. The trade was McDonagh getting dealt to the Nashville Predators. In return, they acquired Grant Mismash and Philippe Myers. Mismash went on to play five games with the Syracuse Crunch with no points, before being sent to the ECHL, scoring 19 points in 32 games. He then left North America this off-season and is playing in Sweden. Meanwhile, Myers has largely stuck in the AHL with Syracuse and has spent the entire 2023-24 season thus far down there.
Meanwhile, McDonagh has played 81 games thus far with the Predators, recording 22 points. He’s averaged 21:20 time on ice per game since joining, including 20 minutes on the dot on average this season. He has posted moderate underlying numbers with the Predators, a step back from his performances with the Lightning. Yet, that’s to be expected as he has aged, along with joining a lesser-skilled team. But his presence, or lack thereof, has been felt immensely in Tampa Bay.
The Role McDonagh Played on Tampa
Ryan McDonagh leaving the team is important to note at this point. Back in 2019-20, his first full year with the team, and the season they won their first of two Cups, the most common pairs were:
Mikhail Sergachev–Kevin Shattenkirk
Ryan McDonagh-Erik Cernak
The Sergachev and Shattenkirk pair and the Hedman and Rutta pair got the easiest minutes, for the most part, while Cernak and McDonagh faced the toughest competition. Yet, they finished 51st out of 98 pairs that season with over 300 minutes together in expected goals against per 60. That may not sound great, but considering they didn’t drive offence and faced the toughest match-ups, it’s strong.
The following season, the only pair that changed was Shattenkirk getting replaced by Callan Foote as Sergachev’s partner. The roles were largely the same. Except, the McDonagh-Cernak pair, despite facing top competition, were ranked 32nd in expected goals against per 60 out of 107 pairs with over 200 minutes together. So yes, they absolutely improved, en route to the back-to-back Cup win.
Meanwhile, in his final season in 2021-22, his most common partner was yet again Cernak, and the pairs remained identical to the year prior. Amongst pairs with over 300 minutes together in his final season with the Lightning, that pair finished 77th out of 102 pairs in expected goals for percentage.
The Impact of McDonagh Leaving
McDonagh leaving meant that Erik Cernak, who only played those three years with McDonagh as his primary partner, had to find a new pair to stick with. So arguably, the Tampa Bay Lightning loss of Ryan McDonagh impacted Cernak the most. Last season, he played with Ian Cole, Hedman, and Sergachev, each at over 200 minutes together. With his main partner that season, Cole, they collectively finished with 55.9% expected goals for, finishing first amongst pairs with over 200 minutes together on the team. Meanwhile, with Hedman, they finished at 44.9% (last on the team). With Sergachev, they recorded a 51.3% mark, which finished third on the team.
However, Cole only stuck around for that one season, meaning Cernak once again saw turnover with his partners. This season, he has played at least 20 minutes alongside Calvin de Haan, Sergachev, and Hedman. More often than not, he has been paired with Hedman, which resulted in the worst results just last season. This year? They’ve recorded a 50.7% expected goals for, which ranks sixth on the team amongst the 12 different pair combinations. Meanwhile, alongside de Haan, they’ve recorded 36.1% expected goals for, which is eighth on the team. Finally, with Sergachev, they sit at 16.7% expected goals for, which is the worst on the team. Simply put, without McDonagh, Cernak has had trouble finding consistent success with his partners.
Cernak Is Not the Lone Defender Feeling McDonagh’s Exit
As mentioned above, McDonagh would largely draw the toughest competition every shift. He and Cernak were relied on as the shut-down pair. As a matter of fact, let’s look at the analytics again. Since 2019-20 through 2021-22, Hedman and his most common linemate have ranked third, sixth (in 150+ minutes together), and first on the team amongst pairs with 200+ minutes together, unless otherwise specified, in expected goals for percentage. Meanwhile, Sergachev and his most common partner ranked first, fifth (150+ minutes), and second in that same stat.
That came due to facing lesser competition. However, as seen with Cernak’s numbers, that shut-down pair no longer exists to free Sergachev and Hedman of tough minutes. To a degree, the Cole and Cernak pair took a lot of those responsibilities. But, with more of a balance between who gets the tougher match-ups, Hedman’s top partner last season (a mix of Nicklaus Perbix and Zach Bogosian) ranked third and fourth (out of seven) on the team amongst pairs with over 200 minutes together. Meanwhile, Sergachev’s top partner (Perbix) combined for second-best.
This Season Has Seen The Biggest Of Impacts
But now, Cole has also left, and Cernak has been left being paired with Hedman. That has found *some* success. However, it has forced Hedman to take on tougher assignments. Last season, it resulted in his worst offensive performance, based on points per game, since 2015-16. Meanwhile, Sergachev has seen poor consistency in the form of defensive zone giveaways and overall egregious defensive zone breakdowns. It led to many fans calling for him to be scratched, as well as questions surrounding whether he is worth his newly signed contract. His offence has been just fine, even replacing Hedman on the top power play unit last season. But the defence has been far from perfect. The trickle-down effect of the Tampa Bay Lightning loss of Ryan McDonagh isn’t directly to blame, but certainly part of the problem.
Expected goal stats and common linemate stats via Money Puck
Main Photo: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports
