After finishing 2022-23 with the fifth-highest goal total, the Seattle Kraken offence hasn’t looked as dangerous in 2023-24. Yes, the sample size remains small. But with just two goals in their first three games, surely players feel the growing frustration. All of that said, their underlying numbers in those first contests suggest reason for optimism.
Seattle Kraken Offence Starts Slow in 2023-24
Only the Washington Capitals have a worse goals-per-game average this year. That feels like an unfair comparison though, as they got shut out in their opener and haven’t played since. With every other team scoring an average of one or more goals per game, only Seattle sits below that number (0.67).
Still, the entire season remains ahead of them. Ringing the alarm now makes little to no sense. Heck, they even get the benefit of the doubt for the next few games ahead. They open at home against the Colorado Avalanche on Tuesday, before the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Rangers visit thereafter.
And the Avs look strong early, with renewed vigour. The Hurricanes remain a Cup favourite too, with their disciplined two-way play under head coach Rod Brindamour’s tutelage. And the Rangers sport a dangerous roster, with one of the league’s best goalies in Igor Shesterkin behind them. Those all stand as tough matchups for the Kraken offence to try and break through against.
Optimistic Statistics for Kraken Offence
One thing that can be guaranteed: the Kraken’s shooting percentage will improve dramatically. Thus far, Seattle has fired 87 shots on goal and only struck gold twice. That equates to an impossibly low 2.3% shooting percentage. Compare that against last year, where they finished with the second-best shooting percentage (11.6%).
Surely some regression in shooting percentage from last season to this season makes sense. For more context too, they scored 209 goals at five-on-five last season. Their expected goals for at five-on-five sat well beneath that, at 172.5. That means they exceeded expectations by a whopping 36.5 goals. Those figures account for shot volume and quality, suggesting they overachieved in general on offence.
Through their first week of 2023-24, the script looks completely flipped for this Seattle Kraken offence. At five-on-five, their expected goals for sits at 6.7. That ranks as the third-highest figure league-wide in that category. Expectations, unfortunately, are just that: expectations. In reality, they only scored one five-on-five goal so far, well beneath the expected total.
Goal Scoring Improvement Expected
Surely, the Kraken will close the gap between expectations and reality as they play more games. Over half the team registered positive outcomes in their advanced metrics, suggesting the opportunities they created so far will continue to appear. They generated nine high-danger scoring chances per game at even strength, while only conceding against seven per game.
That edge in high-danger opportunities typically coincides with an edge in production, too. But only four forwards found their way onto the scoresheet through their first three games. The Kraken offence might be lacking superstar talent, but what it lacks there it more than makes up for in depth.
Andre Burakovsky, Matthew Beniers, Eeli Tolvanen, Kailer Yamamoto, Yanni Gourde and many more remain without a single point thus far. That simply cannot last much longer.
Breakthrough on the Horizon
Looking at this with rose-coloured lenses, there are many good signs despite starting 0-2-1. Already, the defence and goaltending found a way to steal a point for them in the standings. The back end of their lineup kept them close in all three contests, too. They own a .930 save percentage between their netminders, a marker they hope to keep up as the year rolls along.
Both regulation losses included an empty net goal against; Grubauer himself surrendered five goals on 61 shots in those matches. Their third game, a shootout loss, saw Joey Daccord stop 24 of 25 shots he faced. He only gave up one in the shootout too, but the Kraken offence failed to pot any at the other end.
Even their special teams look solid, with a perfect penalty kill through their first 11 kills. Their power play broke through in the shootout loss too, producing their only goal of the game. Jared McCann owns the team’s sole goal at five-on-five, while Jaden Schwartz had the powerplay marker. With plenty of capable scorers besides those two, including strong depth options down in the AHL to boot, the Kraken offence certainly will improve sooner rather than later.
Main Photo: Jeff Le-USA TODAY Sports
