The Montreal Canadiens entered the week grasping to their last thread of hope. Three games in eight days against their hated rivals, the Boston Bruins, made many see at this week as a possible turning point in what has been a disastrous season for the team. However, after losing the first two of those games, as well as a game against the New York Islanders, even the most diehard Habs fans are starting to come around to the fact that this is a lost season.
Montreal Canadiens Plan for the Trade Deadline and Beyond
With the season going down the drain, now is the time to plan for the future. However, things aren’t as bad as they seem. Cornerstones Carey Price and Shea Weber are unlikely to be going anywhere and should bounce back next season. Forwards Brendan Gallagher, Jonathan Drouin, Alex Galchenyuk, Artturi Lehkonen, Andrew Shaw, Charles Hudon, and Phillip Danault are all 25 years of age or younger.
Meanwhile, what was seen as a weak prospect pool a year ago, has seen a major boost this year. Strong seasons from Victor Mete, Nikita Scherbak, Jake Evans, Will Bitten, Charlie Lindgren, Lukas Vejdemo, Brett Lernout, and Hayden Hawkey have increased their worth. Meanwhile, 2017 draft picks Ryan Poehling, Josh Brook, and Cayden Primeau look like outstanding prospects. The majority of their 2017 class in Scott Walford, Cale Fleury, and Jarret Tyszka are also performing well. While Joni Ikonen has had some struggles, he is also a teenager playing in a men’s league for the first time. Add in a high first rounder, and three second-round picks in the 2018 NHL Draft and a re-tool on the fly is possible.
With that in mind, the Canadiens can now look to the future. The following steps (in no particular order) would help the team to prepare to turn things around quickly.
Trade Tomas Plekanec
Tomas Plekanec has been a loyal soldier for the Montreal Canadiens throughout his 13-year NHL career. While he is no longer a top-six centre as his 70-point season feels so long ago, he is still an effective player. Plekanec is a top defensive centre, playing against other team’s top lines, and killing penalties. 35-years old, and in the last year of his contract, its time to trade Plekanec to a contender as a rental piece.
Teams are always looking for centre depth at the trade deadline. Looking around the league, there are few true rentals available. Matt Stajan of the Calgary Flames and Valtteri Filppula of the Philadelphia Flyers may become available, but their teams are in the playoff chase right now. Rentals from clear sellers include Brad Richardson, Mark Letestu, Jacob Josefson, and Nic Dowd. The case can be made that Plekanec is the best rental centre available.
Marc Bergevin must leverage this at the trade deadline. Supply and demand dictate that he must get at minimum a second-round pick, or a solid B-Level prospect (or another package at that value), for Plekanec. Adding another piece to re-tool is imperative.
Other Pending Unrestricted Free Agents
After being acquired during training camp, and called up in November, Nicolas Deslauriers has been a revelation for the team. His emergence has helped the team create a strong fourth line. Deslauriers has even flashed offence, scoring six goals in 25 games for the Habs. However, he becomes an unrestricted free agent on July 1st. Bergevin must meet with Deslauriers and his agent soon, determine if a contract extension can be agreed, or look to move him at the deadline. He might be worth bringing back on a short-term, low-money deal, but the Habs can not overpay based on a 25-game sample size. After all, Deslauriers has never played this well in his career, and that must be kept in mind in any contract negotiation.
The Canadiens signed Jakub Jerabek as a free agent out of the Czech Republic last summer. With his strong skating and passing skills, he brings something that the Canadiens sorely lack in their defence group. However, his defensive skill is somewhat limited. That said, he has improved in recent weeks and is emerging as a legitimate NHL defencemen. Unfortunately, due to his age and CBA rules, the Canadiens could only give him a one-year deal last summer, and Jerabek is also set to be a UFA on July 1st. Bergevin must explore getting his name on a contract extension, as he can be a key part of the 2018-19 defence group. If Jerabek’s demands are not in line with what the team can give him, Bergevin can not allow him to walk without getting a return. If a contract cannot be agreed, he must be moved at the deadline.
The Max Pacioretty Conundrum
There have been a ton of rumours about the Habs exploring a trade of their captain, Max Pacioretty, ahead of the NHL trade deadline. While Pacioretty is having a down season, he is still one of the most dangerous goal scorers in the NHL. He also has a contract with a bargain basement cap hit of just $4.5 million per season, and that runs through the 2018-19 season. The Habs should only move him if a premium package is offered.
The Buffalo Sabres are reportedly seeking four pieces for rental winger Evander Kane at this deadline. Pacioretty must have at least similar value. The bargain cap hit means a contender can have Pacioretty for two playoff runs if they trade for him now. If no one is willing to pay that price, Joe Sakic showed that waiting for the right deal is not a bad thing. Evander Kane‘s rental asking price also shows that Pacioretty can be valuable on draft day or at next year’s deadline.
Bergevin must seek the following pieces: a prospect with top-six centre potential; a puck-moving defence prospect; and a high draft pick. Any package that does not offer said value, should have Bergevin holding on to his best forward until he can get the package he needs.
Paul Byron
Paul Byron scored 22 goals last season. With 12 goals this season, he’s on pace to do so again. Many have said that Byron’s shooting percentage (23% last year, and 19% this year) will regress. Those analysts should consider the fact that Byron’s speed means that he creates a ton of breakaways. They should also consider that even when not on a breakaway, Byron is a winger who gets the majority of his chances within 10 feet of the net. Over his 326 game NHL career, his shooting percentage is 18.5%. Over 188 games as a Hab, it is 21.5%. Byron is the rare forward who can maintain the high shooting percentage. His speed also makes him an excellent penalty killer, and a strong defensive forward.
His contract is also an absolute steal. Signed until the end of the 2018-19 season at a $1.167 million cap hit, Byron might be the best value in the NHL. Even the most cap-strapped contender can fit the contract into their team, and add a 20-goal scorer to their middle-six.
At 28-years-old and relying so much on his speed, the Habs should consider the fact that Byron will likely be looking for a big raise in 2019. Do they want to put big money and term into a 29-year-old whose game relies on elite speed? What is the value of Byron on the trade market? These are questions to explore at this year’s trade deadline. Similar to the Pacioretty situation, Bergevin has time on his side here. If a team is willing to make a significant offer, Byron can be moved. If the big offer does not materialize, Byron can stay with the Habs and be an important piece next season.
The Habs Centre Position This Season
It is no secret that the Habs have lacked a number one centre for a long time. The failure to acquire a top centre is the biggest failure of Marc Bergevin‘s time as the club’s general manager. His two biggest attempts at finding a top centre were drafting Alex Galchenyuk in 2012, and trading for Jonathan Drouin in 2017.
Coaches do not trust Galchenyuk’s defensive game. He has found himself bounced between centre and wing throughout his career. His best offensive stretches have come at centre. This includes the end of the 2015-16 season and the start of the 2016-17 campaign.
Except for a couple of periods, Galchenyuk has spent all of this season on the wing. However, Claude Julien has not ruled out an eventual return to centre. The reality is that the season is lost. The only way for Galchenyuk to learn the defensive responsibilities that Julien expects his centres to perform is to actually play centre. Now is the time for one last try at learning the position. Put Galchenyuk at centre, coach him, and give him 35+ games to work at improving. The team must live with his mistakes and growing pains. Afterall, those growing pains are a lot less painful when the games do not affect their chances of making the playoffs.
Drouin
Drouin played wing throughout his time with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Since coming to Montreal, he has spent the vast majority of the season at centre. On Wednesday, he moved back to wing. The move lasted only 27 minutes before he was back in the middle of the ice. While Drouin has struggled in learning the role, he should continue to play there. Again, the only way to learn the position is by playing it.
The Habs have no other internal options to become a top centre. There is almost no way to acquire a top line centre before the off-season, and even then, Bergevin has not been able to make this move previously. Seeing if one of these players can grow into a centre should be a top priority for the team. With no offence meant to Jacob de La Rose who centred a line with Drouin and Galchenyuk on Wednesday, he clearly does not have the offensive ability to be a first line player. The Habs should attempt to see if one of their young, talented forwards, can learn the nuances of one of the league’s hardest but most important positions.
Further Moves on Defence
While it would be nice to get out from under the contract of Karl Alzner, that is probably not going to happen. However, one defender with value is Jordie Benn. Signed through the 2018-19 season and with just a $1.1 million cap hit, Benn is on a bargain deal. He can play solid minutes on the third pair, and even fill in on the top four for short periods due to injury. He is also a strong penalty killer. Much like Byron, the Habs should explore the market for the thirty-year-old defender. There is no rush to move him. If a team is willing to offer a solid package, Benn’s age could make him expendable.
Call-Up Nikita Scherbak
Nikita Scherbak is having a solid season for the Laval Rocket of the AHL. He is one of the AHL’s leaders in points per game, with 25 points in 20 games this season. Scherbak earned a stint with the big club earlier in the year, playing two games before injuring his knee. After rehabbing the injury, he hasn’t missed a beat with the Rocket, continuing to be their best offensive player.
The Habs are in need of offence. They need to know if their 2014 first round pick is ready to be part of the solution next season. The end of the season should be a try-out for Scherbak. It is a chance for management to give him some responsibility. Bergevin and Julien must evaluate his NHL readiness and chemistry with other young forwards on the roster.
Sign Jake Evans
With 28 points in 22 games this year, Jake Evans is leading the top-ranked NCAA hockey team, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, in scoring. The 2014 seventh-round pick has been one of the most dynamic forwards in college hockey this year and is an early nominee for the Hobey Baker Award. He’s also a natural centre. A college senior, the Habs must sign Evans before August 15th, or he can become an unrestricted free agent. Marc Bergevin must sign Evans.
The good news is that the Habs have a couple of advantages over other teams in this scenario. As a soon-to-be 22-year-old, Evans must sign a two-year entry-level contract with a team to enter the NHL. The Canadiens can have him play an NHL game after Notre Dame’s season is done. This runs off the first year of his ELC. It allows him to negotiate his second contract more quickly, and get more than the maximum ELC salary in the summer of 2019.
The Habs are also desperately in need of a centre. This gives Evans a legitimate opportunity to be part of the NHL team in 2018-19. Other organizations will have him playing in the AHL at a much lower salary. Bergevin needs to leverage these advantages and be sure to get the promising young player’s signature on a contract.
Other College Free Agents
With only 44 contracts on the 50-man limit, Bergevin can also take a chance or two on undrafted free agents once the NCAA season ends. Adding another prospect or two from the college ranks can help the team to re-tool quickly.
The Canadiens are unlikely to look at a multi-year teardown and rebuild. That does not mean that this will be a quiet stretch run to the 2017-18 season. There is still plenty of work for Bergevin and company to do. Moves need to be made, setting up the off-season. Improving organizational depth will allow them to focus their targets on the key pieces needed and allow them to use the team’s plethora of available cap space this summer.
