Auston Matthews is in control of his upcoming contract talks with the Toronto Maple Leafs. It should not shock anyone that Matthews is unlikely to re-sign with the team before the beginning of free agency on July 1st. Doing so would eliminate the leverage that Matthews and his agent could use to meet their demands.
President Brendan Shanahan’s recent decision to remove Kyle Dubas as general manager also adds another hurdle to overcome in getting a deal done. With more questions than answers surrounding the team at this point, there is no need for Matthews to hastily put pen to paper. Expect many twists and turns over the next couple of months as there is much to sort out. Even after finding a new general manager, it is unlikely that a new Matthews deal will happen right away.
Elliotte Friedman on the 32 thoughts said a player texted him say they weren't sure that Auston Matthews would have extended by July 1st even if Dubas was still the general manager because of all the potential changes coming to the Leafs roster.
Said it’s almost certain now that…
— Jen (@tavmarnythews) May 22, 2023
No Movement Clause Activated On July 1st
Modern-day general managers of professional sports franchises must rue the day that the first no-trade/movement clause was officially put into a player contract. Now, every significant player and their agent asks for it when a negotiation takes place. In the Leafs’ case, former GM Kyle Dubas distributed these qualifiers like they were mandatory team gear, and each of the “core four” have one.
Matthews’ no-movement clause is activated on July 1st. Agreeing to a contract before this date makes no sense for Matthews. Doing so would take away some of his leverage. If the team immediately agrees to his parameters such as the average annual value (AAV), term, and most definitely another no-movement clause then yes, a new deal could be reached quickly. This is doubtful.
The Direction of the Team is Uncertain
Dubas’ dismissal brings new opportunities but also lots of questions. Once a new GM is hired, their philosophy about the team’s direction will be of utmost importance. Will they maintain the core players and supplement around them? Will they make a more significant change to the roster and put their stamp on the team? The coaching position must also be addressed. If Sheldon Keefe is let go, he must be replaced quickly.
Matthews will no doubt be an attentive listener to the responses to all questions. Would he be open to a move of one of his fellow core players and friends? Is he agreeable to a possible coaching change? It is prudent that Matthews takes his time to see what direction the team and its new general manager take. All the more reason that a new deal will take time.
Top Tier Players Have Power
Currently, top athletes in professional sports have more input and control than ever before. Star basketball players making their own “dream teams” has become commonplace. Superstars in baseball and football also have more sway. Certain positions on the field, court, or ice also bring more influence. The centre-ice position in hockey is critical along with a goalie and a top defenceman.
As a two-time Rocket Richard winner and Hart trophy winner, along with improved defensive play, there is no arguing Matthews’ credentials. Yes, thus far in his career his postseason success has been limited, but he is regarded as a top-ten player league-wide, regardless of position. He is the type of player that a team builds around. It is unlikely the Leafs would get equal value should they decide to move on from him.
Expect These Details in a New Contract
Matthews and his agent understand this. His wish list is likely to be similar to his last contract. Expect Matthews and his agent to ask for a four to five-year term. This will allow him to negotiate another future deal while he is still in his prime years. An AAV that places him near the top of the league should also be expected. Market value in all sports now dictates that players agreeing to new deals try and raise the bar for future player contracts. A player wants to appease their union. Lastly, a no-movement clause would be expected. That horse is out of the barn and is now a common ask in deals for prominent players. Dubas has already set that precedent within the Leafs organization.
It is a safe bet that a new contract for Matthews will drag on. The next GM of the Leafs should be prepared for a long, difficult negotiation. Matthews has all the control in contract talks with the Leafs.
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