The NHL trade deadline came and went without much fanfare for the Carolina Hurricanes. Many thought they were going to make a big move. However, management opted for more fine-tuning rather than swinging for the fence. But then only roughly one week later they lost one of their top offensive players in Andrei Svechnikov to a season-ending injury. So, what have they done without Svechnikov and what are the Carolina Hurricanes playoff plans for success this year?
The Carolina Hurricanes Playoffs Path
On March 23 the Carolina Hurricanes officially punched their ticket to the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the fifth year in a row. For those who have been fans for a long time, this did not seem possible before Rod Brind’Amour became head coach. While consistent playoff experience is great, it also brings heightened expectations each year. That is true again this season.
Racing to the finish line to win the Metropolitan Division, the Hurricanes are in an interesting place regarding lineup decisions and chemistry. Before the trade deadline, the recurring train of thought was the Hurricanes needed a goal scorer and a second-line centre (ideally both). Shortly before the deadline, Jesperi Kotkaniemi picked his play up. Management felt comfortable with him holding onto the second-line centre role. Meanwhile, scoring and power play help were still on the wish list.
The Trade Deadline
As much as it was known the Hurricanes were looking for those things, it is fairly well known now that they do not like obtaining pure rentals at the trade deadline, nor do they tend to pay more than what they feel is adequate value for players (both in trades and salary). With that said, they made two bargain-type deals. They acquired Jesse Puljujarvi for a prospect and Shayne Gostisbehere for a third-round pick. Gostisbehere was brought in to solidify the third defensive pairing and provide scoring from the backend while helping on the power play. Puljujarvi was more of a low-risk high reward move looking to see if they could possibly get something out of the former fourth-overall pick while at worst having a depth forward with solid underlying analytics.
So the Hurricanes didn’t make the big splash many thought (or maybe were hoping) they would. They stuck with the “we like our team” mantra and did more fine-tuning than major changing. This is not always the worst strategy and long term it may actually be better. But sometimes you do stop to wonder if it is time to take a big swing. Regardless, this was management’s plan.
However, what they did not plan was to lose All-Star forward Andrei Svechnikov shortly after the trade deadline to a season-ending injury. Losing Svechnikov means they lost a 20 to 30 goal scorer, on top of already missing Max Pacioretty for most of the year to injury. Following that injury, the Hurricanes called up forward Jack Drury from the AHL. Now more than ever other players will need to step up. But losing Svechnikov creates a gap in the lineup that Brind’Amour has to fill for the Carolina Hurricanes’ playoff success.
Tweaking the Defence Since the Trade Deadline
The defensive pairings have been fairly stable with the addition of Gostisbehere. Brent Burns and Jaccob Slavin remain a top defensive pairing in the NHL with over 1000 minutes logged together and a 60.79 xGF% through the end of March. Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei, the longest-tenured Hurricanes defensive pair, remain as the second pairing with Skjei having an outstanding year offensively. In the same time frame he has a career-best 16 goals this season.
The third pair has now been set as Jalen Chatfield and Gostisbehere. Since March 3, that pairing is second in the NHL through the end of March in xGF% at 68.4% for pairings that have played more than 100 minutes together. Calvin de Haan and Dylan Coghlan remain the healthy extras. Gostisbehere has been great for the Hurricanes so far. Since his arrival, he has two goals and five assists in 15 games. He also has a 64.42 xGF% over that span. While brought in for his offensive ability, he has also been playing a fairly solid defensive game for the Hurricanes for an offensive defenceman.
The Forward Lines Without Svechnikov
With the new guys in and Svechnikov out, Brind’Amour has had to readjust the forward lines many times with the hopes of finding chemistry. None of the forward lines have stayed 100% consistent since losing Svechnikov.
The top line has seen Sebastian Aho playing with a mix of Martin Necas, Puljujarvi, Seth Jarvis, Stefan Noesen, Teuvo Teravainen, and Jordan Martinook. The second line has included Jesperi Kotkaniemi with a mix of Teravainen, Noesen, Puljujarvi, Jarvis, and Necas. The third line has been the most consistent with Jordan Staal, Jesper Fast and Martinook but Teravainen and Noesen have taken some turns on that line as well. The fourth line has been a mix of mostly Jack Drury, Derek Stepan, Stefan Noesen, Paul Stastny, and Puljujarvi. Needless to say, nothing has really been rock steady since losing Svechnikov with the exception maybe of the third line.
The Carolina Hurricanes Rolling into the Playoffs
The good and bad news for the Hurricanes is that there are many options for their forward lines. Good because there are options, bad because they have not really had any combinations clicking with consistency since losing Svechnikov. The defence seems pretty set but the forward lines are up in the air. And that is exactly what they are looking to find sooner rather than later.
Do the final games of the regular season for the Hurricanes matter? Absolutely. You play every game to win and winning the Metropolitan division would be an accomplishment for the team that guarantees home-ice advantage through the first two rounds at least. We saw how important that was to the team last year (but by all means hope there are some away wins sprinkled in there this year). Going into the playoffs with confidence is also important. But at this time getting the right lines for the playoffs determined is just as important, which unfortunately may take some experimenting. This is the tricky part with both adding and losing players. But teams that do well have depth and are able to adjust quickly. Besides fixing the power play, what do the Hurricanes need to have playoff success?
Stars Being Stars
While the Hurricanes may not have players like a Connor McDavid or Sidney Crosby, they do have their own share of high-capacity players. Two are Svechnikov and Pacioretty. However, they also have others like Aho, Necas, Burns and Slavin.
Aho has been breaking franchise records and is a potential face of the franchise. Aho can make things happen in big moments. In the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Aho sent the Hurricanes past the Nashville Predators to the second round with an game six overtime winner. Necas has also exploded this year to be one of the Hurricanes top producing players. He leads the team in points and is second on the team in goals.
Meanwhile, Burns has put up 55 points while providing a stable partner for Jaccob Slavin. He is an iron man with over 700 consecutive games played. His 55 points is the most for a Hurricanes defenceman in a season (including the Hartford Whalers he is top five). Not only is he a big body with a booming shot, but he has the ability to walk the blueline and get his shot off quickly and has good hands. And speaking of Slavin, while he may not be an offensive juggernaut, his ability to defend through excellent gap control and an effective stick mixed with his ability to move the puck in transition makes him a star-caliber player for the Hurricanes.
While hockey is very much a team sport and the Hurricanes especially rely on balanced production throughout the lineup, when you need a big goal or a big play, they need their top players to be top players. When nothing seems to be going right, the Hurricanes star players need to make the plays in the playoffs to take them to the next level.
Third-Line Consistency
The Hurricanes de-facto “third-line” of Jordan Staal, Martinook and Jesper Fast has been the most consistently paired forward line for the Hurricanes this season. They arguably have also been the most reliable. There were stretches where they were the most consistent for goal scoring, but more notably they provide a heavy forecheck and solid possession game that wear other teams down and keep the puck out of the net. Between Fast’s speed and hustle, Martinooks hustle and Staal’s size and puck protection ability, they can be fairly effective. A lot of their goals are tips or gritty goals around the net (i.e. playoff style goals). They have played almost 700 minutes together as a line this season which is considerably more than any other forward line. In addition, while playing largely in defensive matchups, their xG% is 62%.
An effective third line can be a difference-maker. Just look at Tampa Bay’s third line of Yanni Gourde, Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow during their back-to-back Stanley Cup Championships. Having that reliable third line as the team’s anchor for stability is something that may prove as important as having an efficient first or second line.
First-Line Jordan Martinook
First-line Martinook has been something that Brind’Amour tinkers with every now and again. This has happened more frequently following the loss of Svechnikov. Martinook is not a prototypical first-line player, nor does he have such chemistry with Aho to necessitate that placement (think Chris Kunitz with Sidney Crosby). For a team that is so strong in generating chances, the line of Martinook, Aho and Necas has a 37.8% xG% in 12 games played which is pretty low compared to most other lines.
That is not to say that Martinook has not shown decent moments on the first line nor that he has not shown some signs of goal-scoring (he had a hat trick against the St. Louis Blues in December), but this is not something the Hurricanes will likely look to maintain. Both from the standpoint that Martinook is better suited in a checking role and that frankly the third line may actually be that important to keep intact.
The Somewhat Unknowns and Depth Scoring
Building off of the idea of an effective third line is the simple notion that you need depth scoring in the playoffs. You need the stars to step up and be able to carry the team, but you also need scoring throughout the lineup. The Hurricanes have veteran players down the lineup like Paul Stastny and Derek Stepan mixed with newcomers Drury and Puljujarvi. You don’t need them to turn into 30-goal scorers but you need them to chip in. This can be the difference in a game. Especially come playoffs, recovering a bounce or getting a gritty goal can be game-changers. If other teams zero in on the top lines, depth scoring will be needed.
While Stepan and Stastny may be more known commodities, Drury and Puljujarvi may be the x-factors. Drury is a very responsible two-way forward who has shown a scoring touch in the AHL. If Puljujarvi can regain some of his scoring touch from the 2016 World Junior Championship and find some chemistry with fellow Finns Aho or Kotkaniemi, he too could become a dark horse for the Hurricanes. Regardless, depth scoring will be key.
The Hurricanes Digging Deep for the Playoffs
Statistics absolutely have a place and actually carry over into the playoffs from the regular season fairly well. There are trends and tendencies for a reason. But with every 65% chance of x there is a 35% chance of y. That is what makes it so exciting. While the Hurricanes are a fairly analytically driven team, and on paper losing Svechnikov is a major blow, the players they have do have the ability to step up and create some magic. Aho has done it but maybe we see an unknown hero rise like Jack Drury or a hot Pyotr Kochetkov in net.
The reality is that the Hurricanes are a well-coached team and have bought into the system. As a team they will almost certainly get shots on net and forecheck relentlessly. The question is how many of those shots will they turn into goals. Whether it is the lack of a true goal scorer or the system itself that contributes to the goal-scoring struggles, this is the team they have. They can certainly make noise in the playoffs but the loss of Svechnikov creates a tall task for Brind’Amour and the team. The Carolina Hurricanes playoff success will rely on a combination of what they have done well all season mixed with digging deep to get to that next step.
Main Photo: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
