There have been very few instances in playoff history as concerning and downright scary as John Tavares‘ injury Thursday night.
We’ve received many updates over the past couple of days from the Toronto Maple Leafs organization on Tavares’ health. Firstly, he’s been cleared of all structural head, neck, and spine injuries. Per Elliotte Friedman, he’s suffered a concussion and a sprained MCL. He’ll be out a minimum of two weeks.
TOR GM Kyle Dubas says CT scans and MRIs cleared John Tavares of structural damage to his head, neck and spine. That’s great to hear.
— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) May 22, 2021
With the severity of Tavares’ concussion unknown, however, it’s impossible to determine when he’d return to the lineup. A best-case scenario, in terms of hockey, is that he returns at the mid-point of the Leafs’ potential second-round playoff series. The real best-case scenario is that his long-term health is paramount, and he makes a full recovery.
All that being said, there’s still a series to be played. The team already finds themselves down 1-0 against the Montreal Canadiens. We’ll look here at a few players that will need to step up in order to give the Leafs a chance to Tavares back in the lineup again this season.
Leafs Keys to a Potential John Tavares Return
Nick Foligno
This year’s trade deadline acquisition is going to be a huge part of a Leafs series win here. Per TSN’s Mark Masters, he’ll likely be filling in Tavares’ spot as the team’s second-line centre.
Lines at Leafs practice
Hyman – Matthews – Marner
Galchenyuk – Foligno – Nylander
Engvall – Kerfoot – Mikheyev
Thornton – Spezza – SimmondsWith Tavares out:
* Galchenyuk in on 2nd line
* Engvall in on 3rd line; Nash out
* Foligno, Kerfoot at centre @TSN_Edge— Mark Masters (@markhmasters) May 21, 2021
He’ll be shifting to centre after playing wing with Tavares and William Nylander in Game 1. Unintentionally or not, Keefe’s constructed a line where all three players have some experience playing the centre position at the NHL level. It’s a pretty good strategy in order to compensate as big a loss as Tavares — if Foligno isn’t working out down the middle, Nylander or Galchenyuk can shift into that spot instead. Foligno’s defensive presence will have to be key on this second line. He’s decent but not great in the faceoff dot with a career percentage of 47.0.
Regardless, Foligno can’t be relied upon for goals. The playmaking on this line will have to stem from the wings in Nylander and Alex Galchenyuk — more on him later. The reality remains is that Tavares is a better offensive player than Foligno is a defensive player. If the Leafs want to break even in net goal differential here, Foligno will need to fully embrace a shutdown centre role while also enabling Nylander and Galchenyuk to generate secondary scoring chances. It’s a tough balance to create, but that’s why one acquires a player with Foligno’s experience.
Alex Galchenyuk
Galchenyuk had a strong underlying offensive impact at even strength this season. Galchenyuk’s 0.133 expected goals for per 60 minutes (RAPM-adjusted), per Evolving-Hockey, ranked fourth on the team behind only Auston Matthews, Zach Hyman, and Morgan Rielly. His playmaking ability, forechecking, and zone entry ability will all be under intense scrutiny as he returns to the lineup. Those skills will be relied upon heavily now.
It’s worth mentioning that Galchenyuk’s shooting percentage is 8.1 percent this season, compared to a career average of 11.9. While some regression to the mean would be nice to see from Galchenyuk, the Leafs can’t rely on that with them needing to win four out of six to advance. His playmaking skills at even strength will need to be used in concert with William Nylander’s finishing ability in order for this line to generate offence. Look for Nylander to take more shots and be set up for more scoring chances as the series progresses.
The Third Line
With Riley Nash being a non-factor in his Leafs debut, Pierre Engvall‘s drawn back in to serve on a line with Alex Kerfoot and Ilya Mikheyev. At even strength this season, the Engvall-Kerfoot-Mikheyev line was extremely responsible despite a catastrophically low 0.926 PDO. Per Natural Stat Trick, the line stayed above average in multiple possession metrics, including a 52.45 Corsi for percentage, a 52.86 percent share of shots, a 52.91 percent expected goals share, and 52 percent of scoring chances.
Without John Tavares, and without a Montreal attack that’s a huge offensive threat, it might benefit the Leafs to make this a low-event series moving forward. The team’s improved drastically at preventing high-quality chances against. Toronto has better finishing ability throughout their lineup, even without Tavares in the mix.
It might be more of a dogfight than most expected, but there are still many reasons for optimism here. However, these guys will need to embrace their roles and perform in order to compensate for the loss of their captain.
As always, thanks for reading.
Main Photo:
Embed from Getty Images
