Welcome back to NHL Predictions, March 22nd edition! Each day, the Last Word On Hockey team will break down every game and give our NHL predictions for each. This is the final set for March 22nd featuring the Winnipeg Jets vs Vancouver Canucks. Be sure and check out the first and second set of NHL Predictions, too.
**All statistics in this article have been sourced from Natural Stat Trick unless otherwise stated.
NHL Predictions: Winnipeg Jets vs Vancouver Canucks
Winnipeg Jets vs Vancouver Canucks
Head-to-Head: Jets 3 – 2 Canucks
The Canucks have exploded into life in March, going 8-2-1 in pursuit of one of the top four spots in the North Division. Although, according to Dom Luszczyszyn’s playoff chances model, Vancouver will have to maintain a similar pace over the rest of the season to have any chance of squeaking into the playoffs.
Where the Canucks have improved the most this month, is in their efficiency on the powerplay. In 11 games, they are third in goals-for per 60 (13.28) on the man advantage. They were 26th in that metric over the previous 24 games. Brock Boeser (three goals, two assists) and Bo Horvat (two goals, two assists) have led the special teams’ scoring. However, the issue when facing the Jets is that Vancouver may not get the chance to profit with the extra man; Winnipeg has given up the fourth-fewest penalties in the league.
The Jets will be looking to get back on the horse after suffering consecutive regulation losses for the first time this season. Statistically speaking, Vancouver is a good opponent for them to come up against. Travis Green’s side still boasts one of the worst expected goal shares (45.12%) in the league. In other words, the Canucks give up more quality than they create. I would expect the Jets with their offensive firepower to take full advantage of this.
Prediction: Jets win 4-3
[pickup_prop id=”3616″]
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes
Head-to-Head: Avalanche 3 – 1 Coyotes
Over the last three weeks, Arizona has struggled to put the puck in the net. There have been five occasions where they have failed to score more than one goal. It appears that a lack of veteran goal-scoring talent is what’s hurting them. Five of the Coyotes’ top six point-contributors are under 25 years old, which is a great indicator for the future, but right now, the team is missing offensive leadership.
Furthermore, another big problem is that they are regularly being out-chanced. Arizona is 26th in scoring chance share (46.1%) in the league at five on five. Needless to say, this is not a winning formula when coming up against a top-10 scoring team. The Coyotes will likely rely on another big performance from Antti Raanta, who has been excellent since Darcy Kuemper‘s injury. He has stopped 118 of 124 shots (.952 save percentage) in four games.
Conversely, the Avalanche has looked unstoppable of late. Their 6-0 win over Minnesota on Saturday was the first time they had conceded more than 30 shots against an opponent in 18 games. They went 12-5-1 during that span.
Notable contributors for Colorado include Mikko Rantanen and goaltender Philipp Grubauer. Rantanen has been on a serious hot streak, piling up five goals (including two game-winners) and 10 points in his last five games. Meanwhile, Grubauer is having a Vezina-calibre season. He is first in shutouts (five), third in goals saved above average (13.31) and third in save percentage (.929).*
It is hard to see anything other than an Avalanche win in this one.
*Goalies must have played a minimum of 10 games
Prediction: Avalanche wins 5-1
Los Angeles Kings vs San Jose Sharks
Head-to-Head: Kings 1 – 1 Sharks
The last time both these sides met was way back on February 11th. After that game, each team had 11 points in the standings. Since then, the Californian rivals have experienced a considerable divergence in fortunes. Over the last six weeks, San Jose has gone 6-8-3 and is shaping up as clear sellers for the upcoming trade deadline. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Kings went 9-5-3 and are now five points back of the final playoff spot in the West with a game in hand.
Todd McLellan‘s roster has been surprisingly relevant this season, which has a lot to do with their veteran forwards, who continue to produce. 36-year old Dustin Brown leads the team with 14 goals and Anze Kopitar is tied for fifth in the league in scoring with 37 points.
On the other hand, the Sharks will need to break out of their scoring funk in order to put an end to their four-game skid. Captain Logan Couture, in particular, will want to contribute after going pointless in five straight games.
Luckily for Sharks fans, Los Angeles will likely be starting Jonathan Quick (.897 save percentage) for the second game of their back-to-back. Quick has been mediocre this season. According to Money Puck, he ranks 33rd in goals saved above expected out of 55 goaltenders to play at least 10 games this year.
I predict the Sharks will take advantage of the backup goaltender and register a rare win.
Prediction: Sharks win 3-2
Main Photo:
Embed from Getty Images
