Welcome back to another edition of Senators NHL Predictions here at Last Word on Hockey as Vegas Golden Knights are set to do battle in Ottawa. Ottawa would love a win, at home, in this one. However, Vegas will bring their ‘A’ game following a 3-0 loss in Ontario last night to the Toronto Maple Leafs. Also, don’t forget to check our all our coverage as we look at key matchups and provide detailed analysis on all the games throughout the 2024-25 campaign.
NHL Predictions
Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators, from Canadian Tire Centre
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
TV: TSN5, RDS, ESPN+
Vegas won the earlier matchup this year at home 6-4.
The Ottawa Senators and Their Fans Know It’s Not Easy
Ottawa is trying to show they are better than their 8-9-1 record indicates. It seems schedulers have been challenging them as they battle through a very busy November. Furthermore, last game they faced off against a hungry Edmonton Oilers team after Montreal and Toronto had beat the Oilers. Then, Edmonton and their stars came to play against Ottawa, downing them 5-2. It could be similar facing off against Vegas tonight, after Vegas was shutout just last night by the Sens intra-provincial rivals, the Leafs.
One player that needs to get it going for the Sens is Shane Pinto. So far he has one goal and two assists in ten games played. This is far off of last year’s pace when he had 27 points in 41 games. The depth he provides as a number-three centre in the Sens lineup is crucial to the club’s success. Hopefully he gets it going sooner rather than later.
On the other side of the spectrum, Joshua Norris has been contributing offensively. He has eight goals and 13 points through all 18 Sens games thus far. In addition, he is hot of late with points in four of his last five. His contributions will continue to be important as the Sens try to spread their scoring across all their lines.
In terms of lineup news and notes, Noah Gregor is the only player dealing with something noteworthy. He missed last game and likely miss today’s as well with an undisclosed, but day-to-day type injury. We anticipate a similar lineup for the Sens as last game. Furthermore, Linus Ullmark is the expected starter tonight for Ottawa. As a note and as always, please check for the very latest lineup news before locking in your daily fantasy starting rosters. The latest is that Jacob Bernard-Docker finds his way back in for veteran Travis Hamonic.
Vegas Looking for Bounce Back After Losing Last Night in Ontario
For Senator fans looking forward to a game featuring a fan favourite, it is unlikely Mark Stone will play. He missed last night versus the Leafs and is currently listed on the injured reserve. Doesn’t seem like there would be any to rush him back into the lineup tonight. Michael Amadio takes on his former team as well, but loses some significance not being back in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Vegas is currently battling through some injuries in general, but still have a very deep lineup. One pleasant surprise offensively is Ivan Barbashev. He has eight goals and nine assists through 19 games played. Moreover, this is the theme of this squad, as they have a lot of depth contributors, and will make things difficult for Ottawa in terms of the matchup game. Another example is Keegan Kolesar, he is up to five goals and four assists, as a bottom-six guy, not too shabby.
One anomaly with Vegas, is despite a strong d-core, they aren’t a strong defensive team. However, when you are fourth in the NHL in goals-for-per-game at 3.79 and have the league’s second-best power play at 32%, you can overcome these little challenges. For comparison, Ottawa is 14th with a 3.17 GF/GP and their power play is slowly falling after a great start to sixth at 26.7%.
In addition, Vegas is expected to go with Ilya Samsonov between the pipes tonight. You might think that would work into the Sens favour, but surprisingly he has a better save percentage than Adin Hill. When you study the table below, and consider the discrepancy in goals for between the two teams, Ottawa will be in tough.
| Team | Player | GP | Record | GAA | SV% | SO |
| VGK | Adin Hill | 13 | 8-4-1 | 3.07 | .888 | 1 |
| VGK | Ilya Samsonov | 6 | 3-2-1 | 3.15 | .897 | 0 |
| VGK | Team | 19 | 11-6-2 | 3.16 | .888 | 1 |
| OTT | Linus Ullmark | 11 | 4-5-1 | 2.99 | .884 | 1 |
| OTT | Anton Forsberg | 8 | 3-4-0 | 2.76 | .903 | 2 |
| OTT | Team | 18 | 8-9-1 | 3.22 | .881 | 3 |
NHL Predictions: Golden Knights and Senators
Based on our analysis, it would seem that Ottawa would want to dictate the play. This will be achievable because they have the last change. Therefore, look for them to try to keep this one low scoring to not play into the Golden Knights advantage of being so high scoring.
Prediction: Ottawa wins in regulation, 4-2.
According to Fanduel, if we want to look at adding some friendly wagers on the outcomes, check these out. Based on our prediction analysis thus far, we can set up a four-leg parlay. Taking the moneyline on Ottawa, the under on 6.5 goals, and players to record at least one point for Tim Stutzle and Tomas Hertl we have a nice +1198. Do it!
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