Welcome to this knightly battle as the Vegas Golden Knights travel to the Six to take on hockey royalty in the franchise known as the Toronto Maple Leafs. If we catch you off guard, this is your daily headquarters for NHL Predictions from us folks at Last Word on Hockey. Check out our detailed analysis and breaking things down for how tonight’s game and others throughout the 2024-25 campaign will play out.
NHL Predictions
Vegas Golden Knights (11-5-2) at Toronto Maple Leafs (11-6-2), from Scotiabank Arena
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
TV: Sportsnet, TVA Sports, ESPN+
2023-24 regular season series was tied one game a piece.
The Leafs Continue to Roll Without Their Captain
Tonight the Toronto Maple Leafs will be without their captain for another game. Earlier this week, head coach Craig Berube gave that update. It was hoped that with a light week in the schedule for the Maple Leafs Auston Matthews wouldn’t miss much more action. At this time, he hasn’t yet been ruled out for Sunday’s clash with the Utah Hockey Club. Matthews hasn’t played with the club since November 3rd. Luckily, the players and team as a whole, have been picking it up in his absence.
Mitch Marner has been hot in fact, going back to when Matthews was in the lineup playing. In the past 11 games played by Marner, he has only been held pointless once, coming in the recent game against the Ottawa Senators. In those 11 games, Marner has five goals and 12 assists. Another player who has picked it up recently, this time more directly impacted by Matthews’ absence, is John Tavares. Tavares has been given an increased role since the one they call Papi went down with an injury. For example, Tavares has only been over 20 minutes of ice time three times this year, and that is from the last three games. Also, he is producing, with four goals and two assists over the last five games.
The Leafs Have the Edge Over the Golden Knights Defensively
One matchup tonight that will be tightly contested is in goal. However, based on the season statistics, we do have to give the Leafs the edge in this regard. In terms of goals-against per game, Toronto is ranked sixth in the NHL at 2.63, while Vegas is 17th at 3.17.
Specifically, the anticipated matchup will see Anthony Stolarz square off against Team Canada hopeful Adin Hill. Stolarz will put his outstanding numbers on the line tonight. He is currently sporting a 2.18 goals-against average and a league-leading .927 save percentage. For comparison, Hill has a 3.16 GAA and an .885 SV%. However, Hill owns a slightly better winning percentage with an 8-3-1 record, as opposed to Stolarz’s 7-3-2. Chaulk that up to Vegas being able to put the puck in the net more often than Toronto thus far in 2024-25. Also, one final note, please confirm the latest lineup news before locking in your fantasy starters.
A couple additional lineup notes, is that David Kampf was moved to injured reserve with a lower-body injury. This means that Fraser Minten likely makes his season debut tonight. With Ryan Reaves also out due to his suspension, it is possible that Nikita Grebenkin makes his NHL debut tonight as well.
Vegas Looking To Take the Party to Toronto
There are some similarities in these two teams’ stories, and unfortunately for the Vegas Golden Knight camp, one of those is missing their captain. Mark Stone was injured on November 6th and was shifted to the injured reserve, which ruled him out for tonight. Moreover, similar to Matthews, beyond tonight’s game, he has not yet been ruled out. However, that leaves us with a battle of two teams without their respective captains for tonight’s game.
Furthermore, despite Vegas being outperformed by Toronto defensively, the fact that they are slightly ahead in terms of overall winning percentage is a result of the offensive side of the puck. Vegas is almost a full goal-a-game better than Toronto. In goals-for-per-game, Vegas is ranked third in the NHL at 4.00, while Toronto is 17th at 3.05. Additionally, Vegas has the second-best power play at 34%, whereas Toronto’s is 16th at 19%.
The Golden Knights offence is led by none other than Jack Eichel. He is up to 28 points already in 18 games. More impressive is his assist total sitting at 23. Vegas has done great at retooling their and adding support behind the big guys like Eichel or Stone. One prime example is Tomas Hertl, who came over via trade last trade deadline. He has 16 points through 18 games thus far. Another Golden Knight who has been impressing has been a former Vegas draft selection, Pavel Dorofeyev. His nine goals paces the team in that category.
NHL Predictions: Leafs and Golden Knights
It’s that time we have been keeping you on the edge of your seat for, predictions. Both teams are close in terms of points in the standings. They are also both similar in their last ten, Vegas is 6-3-1 and Toronto 7-2-1. Look for Toronto to ultimately have the slight edge, as they have the ever-desired home ice advantage on their side. Coach Berube will have his team playing their most responsible hockey against a Vegas team that is relentless on capitalizing on its opponents weaknesses.
NHL Predictions: Toronto win in regulation, 5-3.
According to Fanduel, if we want to look at adding some friendly wagers on the outcomes, check these out. Clearly with our predicted score, we like the over at 5.5 paying -140 to get things started out on the right foot. Toronto is +198 on the spread of -1.5, so tack that on as well. If Toronto is scoring five goals, take Marner to have two or more points paying at +164. Finally, given Eichel’s play this year, take him to get at least one point at -265. If we check our slip, this four-leg, same-game parlay pays out +699.
Main Photo: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
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