Welcome to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day our writers here at Last Word on Hockey take a look at the games, breaking down the key matchups and providing relevant analysis to how they might play out. Today, we feature the Montreal Canadiens as they host the Edmonton Oilers. Don’t forget to check out all the action, as our writers continue our NHL Predictions throughout the 2024-25 season.
NHL Predictions
Edmonton Oilers (9-7-2) at Montreal Canadiens (6-10-2), from Bell Centre
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
TV: Prime Monday Night Hockey
Regular Season Series Edmonton was 2-0-0 versus Montreal in 2023-24
The Montreal Canadiens Face-off Against Connor McDavid and the Oilers
Montreal is desperately trying to turn things around. They are 2-1-0 in their last three after previously being in a 0-5-1 funk and falling to the basement of the Atlantic Division. On the other hand, Edmonton is finally starting to wake up, going 6-3-1 in their last ten. Montreal will be in tough as a result.
One player looking to bring his best effort for Montreal, is their expected starting netminder. As a note, please check for the very latest lineup news before locking in your fantasy starting lineups.
If Sam Montembeault it going to make a final push to make Team Canada for the 4 Nations Face-Off tourney, this may be his last chance. If he can impress one of the leaders of the Team Canada playing contingent, he might put his name back in the conversation for selection. His 5-8-1 record to go with a 3.09 goals-against average and an .898 save percentage, shows a goalie who is not consistent enough in the quality of his performances. This is despite him possibly having the edge as someone who typically plays very well at the Bell Centre. That will be one of the two sites for the tournament. A strong showing tonight would put it in the back of everyone’s minds if he can continue playing well over the next ten days or so prior to selection.
Another player on Montreal looking to make the tournament is someone on the Team USA roster. Cole Caufield also needs more consistency in his game, and it would go a long way to boost Montreal’s chances in this one. Caufield’s 12 goals is among the league leaders, but the rest of his game is somewhat incomplete. He only has three assists, and a CF% Rel of -2.8 at even strength isn’t good enough. In addition, he doesn’t shoot enough, further explaining a lack of generation of offence from the primarily offensively-minded winger. 45 shots in 18 games isn’t a lot, and if it weren’t for a 26.7 shooting percentage, his goal total would be much lower.
The Edmonton Oilers Are Trying to Prove to Everyone They’re a Top Team
The Edmonton Oilers are in the middle of an Eastern road trip and still reeling from the momentum of Connor McDavid hitting the 1000-point milestone. It is something noteworthy when you become the fourth fastest in NHL history to achieve such an iconic mark. Furthermore, McDavid is red hot lately, with 11 points in his last four games played.
It is actually surprising how the Oilers are getting it done this year. They have the 22nd ranked power play at 17.4% (Montreal is 10th at 22.2%). Additionally, the Oilers are 31st in the NHL with a 66% penalty kill rate, again, Montreal is better and okay overall in 13th at 81%. Moreover, a stat that is close between the two clubs is team save percentage. Edmonton is at .875, while Montreal is slightly worse at .871. This is offset by actual goals allowed, in goals-against per game, Edmonton is 18th at 3.17. Conversely, Montreal is a dismal 31st at 3.89. The main difference between the two clubs is their organizational expectations. Montreal is still trying to find clear direction, but Edmonton still considers themselves Stanley Cup contenders.
If Edmonton is serious about turning themselves into contenders, they need their depth pieces chipping in. Looking at their leading scorers, after McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, it is three defencemen. No other forward on the roster has more than three goals. Yes, it does appear to be slowly turning around as Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Mattias Janmark are each up to eight points on the season. However, it can’t be just the Leon and Connor show, can it?
NHL Predictions: Oilers and Canadiens
This will be an exciting matchup between two Canadian teams featured on Prime Monday Night Hockey. In a battle of two teams that are poor defensively, Edmonton is heating up and powered by their top players.
Prediction: Edmonton win in regulation, 5-3.
According to Fanduel, if we want to look at adding some friendly wagers on the outcomes, check these out. If we consider the two teams’ poor goaltending records thus far, consider the following. Nick Suzuki and McDavid as anytime scorers, combined with the over on 6.5 goals and the game won’t go to overtime, for a four-leg, same game parlay, would pay +1047. If you want to add Edmonton on the moneyline, it jumps to +1485.
Main Photo: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
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