Welcome back to another round of NHL Predictions. Each day our writers here at Last Word on Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the New York Islanders taking on the Edmonton Oilers. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2024-25 season.
NHL Predictions
New York Islanders vs Edmonton Oilers
Time: 9:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
TV: MSGSN, Sportsnet West
This matchup features two out-of-conference opponents who are both hovering around .500. The Oilers are fifth in the Western Conference’s Pacific Division with a record of 7-7-1 through 15 games. Meanwhile, the Islanders also sit fifth in the Eastern Conference’s Metropolitan Division with a record of 6-6-3 through 15 games. This will be the first of just two matchups between these teams. The Islanders look to start their West Coast trip on the right foot at Rogers Place in Edmonton. The Oilers are 6-3-1 in their last 10 against the Islanders. However, last season the series was split 1-1.
The Islanders Story
For the Islanders, they showed that blowing leads is not something they left in the past. They blew a two-goal lead in the final five minutes of their 4-3 overtime loss to the New Jersey Devils in their last game. They’ve blown 11 of their 14 leads this season, three of them multi-goal leads. However, they are still 3-1-1 in their last five games and playing well despite the injuries. The team has had their depth players step up, along with their remaining star. Bo Horvat has upped his game scoring seven points in the last five games. Overall their offence still ranks tied for 28th in goals with 2.47 per game. It isn’t great but it’s trending up from when they ranked last just a week ago. The special teams have been letting the team down, and the power play is 28th at 13%.
The defensive play has taken a hit because of the three injuries on their blue line. Allowing three or more goals in four of their last five. They could get a boost soon as Alexander Romanov returned to practice in a non-contact jersey. He has missed the last four games, and his absence is noticeable as he was averaging 21:37 of ice time. Despite the lull, they are tied for 11th in goals against per game as they allow 3.07 goals per game. That number could be worse if not for Ilya Sorokin, as they have allowed the 10th most high-danger shots with 33. Sorokin has bounced back to Vezina form with a 4-3-2 record, a .916 save percentage and a 2.52 goals against average.
The Oilers Story
For the Oilers, they snapped a two-game losing streak on Saturday night with a 7-1 win against the Vancouver Canucks. They recently added the best player in the league back into their lineup Connor McDavid. He was pointless in his first game back before exploding for three in the last game. Their offence ranks 22nd in the league in goals per game with 2.67 per game. It could be better though as they rank fifth in expected goals per 60 with 2.9 a game. A lacklustre powerplay doesn’t help the matter, they rank 26th at 15.8%. They go as McDavid and Leon Draisaitl go. That makes them top-heavy but it’s arguably the best top you could ask for.
The Edmonton defence is not as bad as the numbers would indicate. They rank tied for 20th in goals against per game with 3.20 per game. They also have the league’s worst penalty kill at 59%. However, the underlying numbers do them justice. They rank ninth in expected goals against per 60 with 2.27 which is a drastic difference from 3.20. The defence has only allowed 29 high-danger shots which is 15h in the league. The problem is in the net, their goalies have been brutal. Starter Stuart Skinner is 4-5-1 with a .883 save percentage and a 3.25 goals against average. While the backup Calvin Pickard is 3-2 with a .886 save percentage and 2.60 goals against average.
Prediction
With the Oilers getting McDavid back that adds a big boost to their 5v5 and power play. However, if the Islanders can contain him and Draisaitl there isn’t much else that can hurt them. That is easier said than done especially with the defence injuries for the Islanders. The inconsistency in the Oilers net bodes well for New York who have been scoring more than usual recently. We think that the edge between the pipes will be enough to help the Islanders start their road trip on a good note for this round of NHL Predictions.
Prediction: Islanders win 3-2
Prop Bets
According to Fanduel, the Islanders are the underdog at +180 on the money line and we like that bet. The over/under is at 6.5. Considering the top-heavy nature of the Oilers and the strong goalie play for the Islanders, take the under at -124. As far as any-time goal scorers go, for the Islanders take Anders Lee at +260. He has been having a resurgence on the top line with points in four of the last five games. For the Oilers take Connor McDavid at +130, the best player in the league is always a good bet to light the lamp on any night.
Main Photo Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images
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