It’s time to give credit where credit is due for the Ottawa Senators. Yes, it is only early November and it has already been a very trying start to the 2024-25 season. However, there are a few things to look forward to, and one of those things is the defence pairing of Nick Jensen and Thomas Chabot. The others are for another article, so let’s get to it.
The Chabot and Jensen Defence Pairing
What more is needed to introduce the team’s second defence pair. Jensen was an important off-season acquisition when Jakob Chychrun was shipped off to the Washington Capitals. The Sens first defence pair would be considered the duo of Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub, if you are keeping track at home. So, just why can we say the combo of Jensen and Chabot are so effective, even if they are defined as the second pairing?
First of all, it is worth pointing out that this idea of them as an ideal pair was the expectations of the pairing coming into this season. One reason was the abilities of Thomas Chabot and the thought that he just needed the right style of defenceman partner to truly excel. He’s been one of the Sens best players and leaders for a number of years.
Unfortunately, many of those seasons have been very trying. In his first couple seasons in the league, his partners included the likes of Erik Karlsson and Dylan DeMelo. It was established early on in Chabot’s career development, just what kind of partner could bring out the best in him. However, due to a lack of accountability in previous management regimes, Chabot was abandoned and just expected to shoulder an unfair load for the team. His partners included Cody Ceci, Nikita Zaitsev, playing on the right side, you name it, he’s tried it. But now, things were about to change thanks to general manager Steve Staios.
Studying the Analytics Behind the Madness
Thus far, Chabot and Jensen have been involved in very much high-event hockey. And the fact that they have been ending up on the positive side of the ledger, is a beautiful thing. You know, if you are a Sens fan.
In nearly 188 minutes played together, their xGoals% is a very impressive value of 53.1%. Furthermore, their actual goal percentage is up to 56%, as they’ve outscored opponents 14-11 thus far in 2024-25. When your actual goal values out pace your expected, you are very efficient. A great quality to have for offensive-minded players, like Chabot would be considered. Even that xGoals% has them ranked 28th league-wide of pairings that have played at least 100 minutes together. For example, the leaders are Quinn Hughes and Filip Hronek at 69.2%.
Furthermore, this is a metric that the Sens young third pair has been effective in thus far. Tyler Kleven and Jacob Bernard-Docker have a xGoals% of 60.8. That’s good for 13th league-wide. As we see this isn’t necessarily a stat of the best pairings overall but the best as line. So, you can assume that when Kleven and JBD are deployed, it’s against opponents’ third and fourth lines, not their top lines. Of course, the best pairs still find their way among the leaders. Another example is in tenth, at 61.6% the pair of Devon Toews and Cale Makar.
Mixing in the Individual Statistics
In any case, Chabot is having a great start to the season. He plays over 23 minutes a game and is up to seven points. He also has a Corsi rating that’s quite good, with a CF% Rel. of 8.0.
On the other hand, Jensen is just as effective in his own right. He’s up to six points already in 2024-25 in 20:39 of average ice time, because he doesn’t play on the man advantage. So, not only is the duo effective as a pair, they are also having good individual seasons to back it up.
How Does Chabot and Jensen Help the Senators Win Games in ’24-25
Right now, they are a big piece to head coach Travis Green‘s strategy. They are trying most everything they can to be successful. Leaving alone the pairing of Chabot and Jensen would be a key component of maintaining the integrity of that strategizing. Injuries have factored in, so there does seem to be a workable model there, but it will take some finesse.
Main Photo Credit: David Kirouac-Imagn Images
