Welcome back to another episode of NHL Predictions. Each day our writers here at Last Word on Hockey take a look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breakdown the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then make predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the New York Islanders taking on the Ottawa Senators. Don’t forget to check out all the action, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2024-25 season.
NHL Predictions
New York Islanders vs Ottawa Senators
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
TV: MSGSN, TSN-5
This matchup features two Eastern Conference opponents who are both hovering around .500. The Islanders sit sixth in the Metropolitan Divison with a record of 5-6-2 through 13 games. The Senators are fifth in the Atlantic Divison with a record of 6-6-0 through 12 games. Both teams are jockeying for position in the Wastern Conference Wild Card playoff race in the early going. This will be the first of three matchups between these two teams. The first happening tonight in Ottawa inside the Canadian Tire Centre. They met three times last season as well with the Islanders winning the series 2-1.
The Islanders Story
For the Islanders, they are still trying to battle their way through the mound of injuries they have sustained so far this season. They put forth another gritty effort in their last game. A come-from-behind 4-3 win in a shootout over their hated rivals the Pittsburgh Penguins. From a team that was top-heavy offensively to start, they have now been getting contributions throughout their lineup. In their last three games, they have had nine goals coming from seven different goal-scorers. Their season rank still hasn’t changed. They rank 31st in goals per game with 2.31, but at least they are showing signs of life recently. The power play is still a struggle, however, going 2-for-14 over their last three. Ranking 28th in the league at 13.6%, that is something that still needs to be fixed. The pesky identity is forming, they have been a tough team to play against recently.
The defence has also needed guys to step up because of injury. The regulars Ryan Pulock, Scott Mayfield, and Noah Dobson have been asked to play more ice time. Pulock averaging 27:56 minutes per game, Mayfield at 23:05, and Dobson at an incredible 26:46. Dobson is trying to put in a good showing to supplant his inclusion on a Team Canada. Such a performance should help make his case to general manager Doug Armstrong and crew.
Bridgeport guys have had to step up, Dennis Cholowski, Grant Hutton, and Isaiah George, who played 15:41 in his NHL debut Tuesday, all have done so. The team still ranks 12th in goals against with 3.08 per game. Their penalty kill has shown improvements, they are 8-for-11 (72.72%) in their last three after going 6-for-16 (37.5%) through the first ten games of the season. Perhaps the main reason they have survived the defensive injuries is Ilya Sorokin. He has been a rock in the net for the Islanders, he is 4-3-1 with a .921 save percentage and a 2.35 goals-against average. After starting the last three games, expect to see him in the net again in this one. However, as we always state, please confirm with the very latest fantasy lineups before locking in your votes.
The Senators Story
For the Senators, their offence has been humming to start the season. They are among the league’s best, ranking eighth in goals with 3.58 per game. Their team gets production from everywhere, not just their forwards but their blueline too. Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk on their top line lead the team in points, with 17 and 16, respectively. Drake Batherson and Claude Giroux are close behind them on the second line, each with over double digits in points thus far. Even Adam Gaudette, in their bottom six, has scored in three of his last four games. Defencemen Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot have combined for two goals and 12 assists from the point as well. One of the best power plays in the league goes a long way in that. Their power play is elite, and ranks fourth in the league at 30.8%.
Defensively the Senators rank in the middle of the pack. They are 19th in goals against with 3.17 per game. However, when looking at some underlying stats they could be better than this standing. Their expected goals against per 60 is ninth in the league at 2.61 per game, a whole ten-spot difference. They also don’t allow that many good chances ranking 14th in high-danger shots against with just 24. The problem lies in the net, their goaltending hasn’t been great. Linus Ullmark has been underwhelming with a 2-4 record, .892 SV% and a 3.02 GAA with -1.1 goals saved above average. Backup Anton Forsberg has been the better of the two. He is 3-2 with a .910 SV%, a 2.65 GAA and two shutouts to his name.
NHL Predictions: Ottawa vs the Islanders
The Islanders have been a pesky team over the best few games as they’ve been trying to find their identity. The Senators are a high-scoring team, who can hurt you from all over their lineup. Coming off a 5-1 loss to the Buffalo Sabres, they are due for a high-scoring game. This doesn’t bode well for the Islanders who have been asking a lot from their healthy defencemen. Furthermore, this game is in Ottawa, where the Senators have played well. They are 5-1 at home and 1-5 on the road. They will continue their strong play at home in this one.
Prediction: 4-3 Senators win in regulation.
Prop Bets
According to Fanduel, the Senators are -152 on the moneyline. Due to their home ice advantage and their winning ways in this building, no need to wonder if we’d take this bet. We would take this bet. The over/under is set at 6.5 which is a fair line. The Islanders have been better offensively as of late. The Senators have been good offensively all season and coming off a one-goal game, take the over at +114. As far as any-time goal scorers go, for the Islanders take Brock Nelson at +210. He only has one goal in his last five games which is unlike him, he is due to score. For the Senators take Claude Giroux at +240. He was a notorious Islander killer in his time with the Philadelphia Flyers, expect for him to do it again in this game.
Main Photo Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
