Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day our writers here at Last Word on Hockey take a look at the games and give analysis. Our team break down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then make predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, the New York Islanders will take on the Buffalo Sabres. Don’t forget to check out all the action, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2024-25 season.
NHL Predictions
New York Islanders vs Buffalo Sabres
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
TV: MSGSN, MSG-B
This matchup will feature a pair of Eastern Conference opponents who have both gotten off to rough starts. Coming into this game the Islanders have lost three in a row, including both games of their back-to-back. This drops their record to 3-5-2 in the first ten games, good for sixth in the Metropolitan Division. The Sabres, on the other hand, sit fifth in the Atlantic division with a 4-5-1 record through ten contests. This will be the first of three matchups with this first one happening in Buffalo at the KeyBank Center. In the last ten meetings between the teams, the Sabres own a 7-3 advantage. The season series was 2-1 last year with Buffalo winning the last two meetings.
The Islanders Story
For the Islanders, it has been a historically bad month for their offence. They were shutout again in their last game against the Columbus Blue Jackets, a 2-0 loss. This marks the fourth time they have been shut out in the first ten games. Last season, they were only shutout seven times in 82 games. With these poor offensive efforts, they have dropped to dead last in the league with 2.10 goals per game. Their power play hasn’t done them any favours. They have gone 4-for-31 this season. That has them ranked 28th in the league at 12.9%. Head coach Patrick Roy has tried his best to get something from the offence. He has been playing musical chairs with the lineup since the Anthony Duclair injury. There were nine different line combinations against the Anaheim Ducks Tuesday night. This was followed by seven-line trios against the Blue Jackets the next night. Roy even split up Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal to start Wednesday’s game before reshuffling the lines. Safe to say, nothing has worked but it’s hard to develop anything when your linemates change every night.
The lack of offence has left the defence and goalies out to dry. While the defencemen haven’t helped the offence at all, contributing just one goal in 10 games. At least they have helped keep the puck out of their net. The Islanders rank ninth in goals against with 2.90 per game. The strong defensive play has helped both Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin. Sorokin is off to the best start of his career through five starts, as he has a 1.80 goals against and a .932 save percentage. He has played well enough to win all his starts. However, due to the offensive ineptitude, he only has two wins.
The Sabres Story
Buffalo had their three-game winning streak snapped in their last game. That most recent game was a 5-2 loss to their division rival Florida Panthers. In that win streak, they were able to score 13 combined goals. Buffalo is tied for 15th in goals with 3.20 per game. They rely a lot on their top guns as the top three-point producers are on the top line. Tage Thompson leads the way for them with 12 points in 10 games. Alex Tuch and J.J. Peterka are just being him with nine and eight points in ten games. They could produce more goals if their power play wasn’t ranked dead last at 6.9%.
The weakness of this Buffalo team is their defence and more specifically their goaltending. They rank 27th in goals against with 3.60 per game. However, their expected goals against is only 12th in the league at 19.24. Moreover, they have only allowed 17 high-danger shots which is 13th in the league. The reason they allow so many goals is their penalty kill is ranked 23rd at 74.2%. In addition, their goalies have not been great either. Their starter Ukko-Pekka Luuokkonen is 3-3-1 with an .890 SV% and 3.31 GAA. In contrast, backup Devon Levi has been worse. He sits with a 1-2 record, an .874 SV% and 3.79 GAA.
Prediction
Fatigue will be the name of the game in this one. Buffalo has been off since Monday and hasn’t had to travel all week. Islanders are playing their third game, in their third different city, in four days. You couple that with the fact that the Islanders have scored one goal in their last two games and are last in the league in goals for. While also not forgetting how well Buffalo has played against the Islanders and it could be a long night for them. New York will only be able to sit back and play defence for so long. The Sabres offence will be able to easily outscore the Islander offence and send their fans home happy.
Predictions: Sabres win 3-2
Prop Bets
According to Fanduel, the Sabres are the favourite at -122 on the money line take that. The over/under is set at 5.5. The Islander offence won’t be able to score that much but their defense will allow the under to hit at +106. As far as any time goal scorers go, for the Islanders take Maxim Tsyplakov at +400. The Russian winger has finally been getting minutes on the top line and hasn’t scored since opening night, we like the odds and he’s due. For the Sabres, Tage Thompson has scored in three of his last four games. At +170 the odds aren’t that juicy but he is still a safe bet here.
Main Photo Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports
Please play responsibly, check for your local rules and age restrictions, some jurisdictions require ages 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
